Final Tune Up

Karl Brooks (#94) registers Green Bay’s only sack against Minnesota. (photo credit: Emma Pravecek; packers.com).

What seemed like a very bland gameplan (likely by design) by Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings were able to control the entire game and Sam Darnold had all day to progress his reads and pick apart the injured Packers’ secondary. Even with not scheming up exotic blitzes and pass rushes, the Packers were able to hold Minnesota to just 69 yards rushing on 26 attempts (2.7 yards/carry). When Green Bay did get pressure on Darnold, he was terrible. On the first 3 pressures from the Packers, Darnold airmailed a pass through the end zone, took a sack, and rushed a read that was intercepted by Carrington Valentine.

There were 3 bright spots from that Viking game.

  1. Speaking of Carrington Valentine – he’s been one of my favorites since he was forced into action as a rookie last season. He seems glued to his WR when in Man Coverage and finally was able to come up with some plays over the last few weeks.
  2. Edgerrin Cooper – for a few weeks now, he’s really come on and is putting together enough good play to make you have to assume he’s just that good.
  3. This team never stopped fighting. That’s the thing with a young team, the Packers are too young to know better that the “game was over.” They keep fighting, and it’s a great trait…now just get off to better starts.

The game actually got off to a solid start until new fan-favorite, Josh Jacobs, put the ball on the ground. Losing his 3rd fumble of the season, that must not happen in the playoffs, otherwise it’ll likely spell doom for Green Bay.

To recap, I firmly believe the Packers (on both sides of the ball) kept the gameplan bland intentionally to not put anything on tape for their potential playoff matchups…whether that’s Philadelphia, Detroit, or Minnesota. There’s a high probability that if Green Bay were to reach the Super Bowl, they’d have to face all 3. While the coaches didn’t prepare specifically for THIS game and to win it, it doesn’t mean the better team didn’t win…catch that? The Vikings have proven they’re the better team and are 2-0 vs. Green Bay, and should be. However, while it’s been well-documented that the Packers are 0-5 against teams “better than them,” the Packers are more than capable of beating any of these teams, and you should expect them to.

(4-12) Chicago Bears @ (11-5) Green Bay Packers

This game is the epitome of “throw the records (and stats) out the window.” This will be Chicago’s Super Bowl, again. Green Bay has an 11-game winning streak vs. the Bears and Chicago is a mess. The Bears are in search of a new Head Coach and for 3 consecutive QBs, they’ve fired the head coach within that QB’s first calendar year. Not a recipe for success, but what do you expect?

While I said you can throw the stats out the window, it’s important to view them to see truly where each team stands in the NFL. Green Bay is top-10 in every ranking aside from Passing Offense (12th), Passing Defense (17th), and Giveaways (T-11th). That’s as balanced a team in the entire NFL. The truest stat for Power Rankings (in my opinion) is overall point differential. Green Bay sits at 5th in the NFL where Chicago ranks only 23rd while riding their 10-game losing streak. That alone would tell you Chicago is “better” than their 4-12 record while Green Bay destroys teams worse than them and barely loses to better teams.

Since this game is essentially meaningless, again, Green Bay should come out and try to beat Chicago with scheme, preparation, and overall execution. You always want to head into the postseason on a good note and plus, especially for the fans, adding to the winning streak over the rival Bears is a nice touch.

Speaking of the postseason, the Packers received word that they’ll be without their great Cornerback, Jaire Alexander, which is a huge blow, but the Packers are used to playing without him by now and need to find a pass rush to help out the secondary. What was a silver lining from the Vikings game, was Darnold had to go to his 2nd, 3rd, and sometimes 4th read – meaning the secondary had everything blanketed for 3-4 seconds, but without ANY pressure, Darnold just stood there and was able to wait for guys to uncover. Just getting pressure to move the QB off his spot might be enough for the secondary to do its job.

Since this game will likely be treated as a tune up fo the playoffs, we may see a ton of Malik Willis and a backfield consisting of Wilson and Brooks. My guess is Love starts and plays the 1st half while Malik comes in and takes over after halftime. The Packers should still win as they can run the ball effectively and operate a bit of play action, which Malik has shown to be phenomenal at this year in the snaps he’s taken. Expect Green Bay to do a few shot plays in the 1st half to put some things on tape for the Eagles (likely opponent) to have to scout for and the Defense to have a much better outing than they did in Minneapolis a week ago.

Prediction Time

Look for the Packers to get out and control the game from the onset. I think they’ll take the ball first should they win the coin toss and try to get out to an early lead by trying out some new things and close the game out late.

Season: 14-2
Overall: 106-68

Bear Week…

It used to be a thing, when this was a rivalry, which was almost never. The Packers have absolutely OWNED the Bears since Brett Favre’s arrival on the scene in 1992, the Bears owned it prior to that, then Packers, so on and so forth. However, from the trash talk out of Chicago (which is always because they have zero awareness), you’d think this is a huge matchup, akin to 2010, which the Packers won both big ones.

What’s At Stake?

Chicago~ their annual tradition carries on of playing Spoiler. The Bears have a chance to knock the Packers out of the playoffs, much like Detroit did last year. The Bears have won 5 of their last 7, however, not against impressive competition. One of those wins was vs. Detroit, but they’ve been inconsistent the last 8 games, or so. Relatively, Chicago has improved – considering they couldn’t get any worse than starting the year 0-4 and in that fashion, their delusional fanbase (redundant) thinks they’re on the cusp of something, yet they’re torn on whether Fields is the future or not…hopefully for us Packer fans they decide HE IS!

Green Bay~ the Packers are in the exact same scenario as last season…win and you’re in! Coming into the season, the majority of Packer nation wanted to see if Jordan Love was the answer at QB moving forward – he is. The 2nd priority was to get all the youth as many snaps and experience as possible; mission accomplished. Should Green Bay find themselves in the playoffs, they’d be a full year ahead of schedule. Think about Detroit’s rebuild, they traded away Stafford for a King’s Ransom and have built their roster properly. Even then, they missed out on the postseason a year ago and then won the division fairly easily this year – and in Milwaukee Brewer fashion, hung a banner

Matchup

What stands out is the Bears’ rushing attack vs. the Packers well-known awful rush defense. Green Bay has improved in recent weeks as they’ve jumped out to large leads in their last 2, so both Carolina and Minnesota avoided the rush, but the Packers still were gouged… Look for Chicago to stick with the run to open the pass game, hopefully the Packers carry on their man coverage with blitz looks to generate pressure on Fields, who’s already inaccurate when not under duress. If Green Bay can win the turnover battle, Chicago turns it over quite a bit, but they take it away a ton as well (tied for 3rd in the NFL).

To recap, Chicago runs the ball effectively (even if that’s Fields), which means they hold the ball (2nd in Time of Possession), and they generate a ton of turnovers, which makes up for a below avg. pass defense and scoring defense…this is how they’ve gone 7-9 instead of continuing on in the bottom of the league…

Prediction

To keep up with, when I pick against the Packers they win, theme….

Bears 27 (+3)
Packers 24

Season: 4-12
Overall: 91-64