Frozen Tundra Meet The Dawg Pound

Where Does Each Team Stand?

Green Bay is one of, if not the, best teams in the NFL. They’re tied for 3rd in point differential (+23) meanwhile Cleveland is on the opposite end of the spectrum, currently 0-2 and a point differential of -25 ranking 30th in the NFL. The Browns are working through a rebuild, of sorts, needing to identify a Quarterback of the future, but have Joe Flacco manning the helm right now and is quite serviceable. The Browns have talent, but they’ve been on the struggle bus for some time now.

Prime Matchup: Defenders?

This game will feature the best 2 pass rushers in the NFL. Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are the premier pass rushers and can wreck a game on their own from the defensive side of the football. We, as Packer fans, now know how good Micah Parsons is, but this will be a good look at how effective Garrett is for the common fan. Meaning – if all-world RT Zach Tom is unable to go, rookie Anthony Belton will have the greatest test a rookie can be tested with…facing Myles Garrett. Depending how Cleveland decides to use Garrett, likely shifting all over the field pre-snap, the Packers might be able to alleviate some pressure on Belton with counters and play action, but this will be a tough test regardless.

Matchup Matrix

These teams boast 2 of the best defenses in the NFL, at least through 2 weeks. They also have the top 2 rush defenses in the NFL. Cleveland also ranks #1 in total defense (yards given up/game), however they’ve been done in by turnovers. This will be the key to the game, as the only way Cleveland will be able to win this game is by winning the turnover battle, they may have to win it by 2 or 3.

When the defense is on the field, they’ll have the advantage in this game, for both Green Bay and Cleveland. Again, whichever teams takes care of the football and is able to get some chunk plays, will win the game. The Packers enter this game as 7 ½ point favorites and it could be tough to cover unless their defense generates a couple of short fields off turnovers.

Prediction Time

Whichever team is more effective vs. the other’s outstanding pass rusher will come out victorious. I should elaborate a bit more on that – for Cleveland that is a must, Green Bay might be able to get away with Garrett wreaking some havoc.

Season: 1-1
Overall: 108-70

Another Litmus Test

Kansas City is looking to keep pace with Baltimore for the 1-seed in the AFC playoff picture. With a win, they would jump back to the 1-seed via better conference record than Baltimore. Green Bay on the other hand, is the first team out looking in at the playoff picture in the NFC. With a win, the Packers would jump ahead of Seattle (tied with a 6-6 record, but better win % in conference games) and hold the 7th seed (last playoff spot). It’s quite the game for both sides.

Matchup~

 KC off.(rank)vs.GB D.(rank)
Rush106.517th135.227th
Pass258.57th205.19th
Total365.08th340.318th
Pts23.511th 20.4T-10th
 KC D.GB off. 
Rush113.419th 102.7T-21st
Pass176.64th222.116th
Total16.53rd324.818th
Pts20.210th 21.017th
  
T/OKC  GB 
Takeaways14T-20th12T-26th
Giveaways19T-23rd12T-6th
Diff.(5)T-23rd 016th
  
ToPKC  GB 
 31:2510th 28:3825th

These teams are fairly evenly matched when Kansas City has the ball, evidenced by the ranks of each…however, the Chiefs may be able to gouge the Packers in the run game with Isiah Pacheco, a hard, vicious, runner. It’ll be interesting to see if the Packers can keep Mahomes in check as they did in their last meeting, holding the Chiefs to just 13 points at Aarowhead in Jordan Love’s first career start.

This will be a good test for the Chiefs as well, as a foreign team coming into Lambeau for a night game is about as tough an environment as there is. Kansas City is the better team, they’re on the cusp of a dynasty, and if they earn the 1-seed, they’d be on track to host a 6th consecutive Conference Championship game.

The One Matchup That Will Dictate the Outcome

Packers C Josh Myers.

He’s been better as of late, but he’s had some awful “blocks” over the course of the season. It should come as no surprise that the improvement of his play has coincided with Jordan Love’s ascension and the team’s too. Myers will be tasked with blocking, arguably, the best defensive lineman in football; Chris Jones. He can wreck a game against good offensive lines, which Green Bay typically has…

Chiefs DT Chris Jones.

In the aforementioned game, Jones was held to 2 tackles and 2 QB hits. That’s pretty good. Green Bay typically does a good job nullifying great defensive linemen…typically. This year they’ve neutralized Aiden Hutchinson (previous game on Thanksgiving) and Aaron Donald (Rams game), but struggled mightily against Hutchinson in Week 4’s matchup and had a real problem with Las Vegas Raiders’ DE Maxx Crosby.

Prediction

Considering I missed last week’s prediction, happily by the way, that seemed to workout…so let’s try it again.

Chiefs 31
Packers 28 (+7)

Season: 4-7
Overall: 91-59

*If Green Bay pulls off the upset, this could be a trajectory game (again), to something much bigger and brighter.*