Outside of the interception, which was an awful pass/decision, Jordan was dialed in on every throw. Love was 17/25 (68%) for 234 yards, 3 TDs and the 1 interception for a passer rating of 120.7. He was in complete control of the game, and even had a nice 34-yarder on the 2nd drive of the game that was overturned somehow. Had that play stood, Green Bay might’ve boat-raced the Bears.
The Packer offense was very efficient all game, averaging 6.5 yards/play and an astounding 8.5 yards per pass. Keeping with the offensive efficiency, Green Bay scored 3 of their 4 touchdowns on 3rd down with the 4th coming on 2nd down with only 0:38 left in the first half.
All 3 of Love’s TD passes were a thing of beauty. He also had a few gaining first downs in key situations on perfect passes. It was close to a perfect game from the offense and the Packers will need to continue this efficiency if they plan to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in early February.
Defense Did Just Enough
Green Bay’s defense held Chicago to just 3 first half points – with the most crucial series coming off the opening drive interception. Holding Chicago to 3 points there would’ve been a success, nonetheless forcing a punt flipped the momentum directly back to Green Bay’s sideline. The Bears amassed just 71 total yards and 5 first downs in that first half. Caleb Williams began the game slowly and finished the 1st half just 6/14 for 32 yards – he made some plays in the 2nd half to pull it close, but ultimately blew the game on the 4th & 1 play at the end of the game.
With the game on the line, Green Bay came up with their biggest defensive stand of the season. With Chicago facing 3rd & 1 from the Packers’ 14-yard line, Edge Rusher Kingsley Enagbare stuffed the popular Chicago rookie, Kyle Monangai, for no gain setting up the aforementioned 4th down.
All in all, the Packers allowed 315 total yards and 21 points to an offense that came into the game averaging 374 yards and 26 points per game. Green Bay did their job in every facet: offense; defense; special teams. The main mission accomplished was only giving the Bears 1 turnover and they were blanked on that possession.
Reed’s Return
Jayden Reed returned from IR this week and made a solid statement. He finished with 6 total touches for 53 yards, averaging 8.8 yards/touch. Two of those touches resulted in 1st downs with one of those coming on a key 3rd & 1. Reed really opens up the middle of the field for Love to attack and everyone else benefits.
Christian Watson is Developing into a True WR1
Since returning from his torn ACL – Christian Watson has played 7 games and has accumulated 25 receptions for 452 yards and 5 TDs. He’s also logged 20 first downs and just by using your eyes, the offense is far more efficient/dangerous with him on the field. The Packers are 5-2 in those seven games and had they used him properly (like they have the last 2 weeks v. Detroit and Chicago) the argument could be made that Green Bay could be sitting here with an 11-1-1 record – considering they scored a combined 20 points in those 2 games it’s not far-fetched to think the Packers should’ve won both of those games.
Watson is beginning to show that he’s a game-changer considering he now has back-to-back games with 40+ yard touchdown receptions, and a QB willing to trust him to make those plays…funny how that all coincides with him eliminating his drops.
What Now?
With that win, Green Bay took over top spot in the NFC North and the 2-seed in the NFC playoff standings. Chicago dropped down to the last playoff seed (7th) and should the playoffs begin today the Bears would travel to Lambeau Field for a Wild Card matchup. While each team has an AFC opponent this upcoming week (Chicago hosts Cleveland while Green Bay travels to Denver to face the Broncos), these two teams will matchup again to essentially determine who will the NFC North. Should Chicago drop their game to the Browns, it’s not too desperate to think they’re in “must-win” games the rest of the way based on the playoff picture.
(9-3) Chicago visits (8-3-1) Green Bay for the Game of the Week on FOX at 3:25p CST.
Big Picture
While it’s been rare for a Bears/Packers game to have meaning across the rest of the conference, this time all eyes will be on Lambeau Field as this pits 2 of the top teams in the NFC – and will have major implications for every team that’s above .500. The NFC playoff picture is so tight that the loser of this game falls to the 7th seed…which is wild considering Chicago currently sits atop the NFC, just a major game in every facet.
Not only is the entire NFC concerned with this game, but it could determine the division (NFC North). Whichever team loses will be in complete desperation-mode as they will be the 7th seed (mentioned above) and have the Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers breathing down their necks. The winner will have a huge leg up in the division and increase their playoff chances incredibly, with quite a bit of meat left on the schedule.
This is such an interesting matchup, mainly because these two teams play each other 13 days after their first meeting. Which will be another pivotal game for both and the entire NFC playoff picture come Dec. 20th.
How Did Each Team Get Here?
The Bears opened the season in (hindsight) awful fashion. The Bears lost to JJ McCarthy and the now 4-8 Vikings at home to open the season. Then followed it up by getting destroyed by the Lions, 52-21. However, since then the Bears have won 9 of their last 10 games and have done so by winning a ton of close games. Their most impressive win of the season came last week at Philadelphia, beating the Super Bowl champs 24-15 and controlled the entire game.
As for Green Bay, we’re all familiar with how we ended up here. The Packers started their season looking like the best team in the NFL through the first 2 weeks of the season. After a roller-coaster 10-game stretch, it seems like the Packers have figured out how to win in various ways. That’s the positive way to look at it, the other way to look at it is that LaFluer gets stuck in playing to the level of competition he’s facing. Or we could be at the turning point of this entire season and “rebuild” of Green Bay possibly putting something special together – which we will figure out come Sunday about 7pm.
Matchup Matrix
Just like the Detroit matchup, this game pits two of the best groups in the NFL against one another: Chicago’s offense v Green Bay’s defense. Mainly Chicago’s 2nd-ranked ground attack against Green Bay’s top 7th-ranked rush defense. Green Bay’s rush defense took a huge hit against Detroit by losing DT Devonte Wyatt to an ankle injury for the season. The defense is starkly different without Wyatt, evidenced no better than that Dallas game back in Week 4.
The potential good news is that the answer to solve the Wyatt injury may rest on the roster already…Evan Williams has been nothing short of outstanding since being drafted in the 4th round in last year’s (2024) draft. He leads the team with 3 interceptions, all of them coming in crucial moments. He’s also been spectacular in the run game.
Let’s not forget, potentially getting Quay Walker back could have a huge impact on the rush defense, evidenced by this tweet from @TitleTownTalks. The Packers run D is far more effective when he’s on the field, however, Isaiah McDuffie has been nothing short of amazing filling in these last few games. That’s a testament to GM Brian Gutekunst for building a team with immense depth.
How Does Green Bay Win this Game?
The main challenge the Bears present is their rushing attack. They’ve rushed for 974 yards during their 5-game winning streak, that’s an average of 194.8 yards/game. Impressive numbers from a team that certainly has a ton of confidence – which is the most dangerous aspect of Chicago.
In Chicago’s wins, they’ve averaged 50 more rushing yards/game than in their losses. They’ve also averaged an additional 7.7 points per game in their wins. The key stat, however, is in their wins, they average 2.8 takeaways per game vs. just .333 takeaways in their losses. In their 3 losses, they’ve only generated 1 turnover, combined. Essentially the key to beating the Bears is to hold onto the football.
In Chicago’s losses, they’ve committed almost an entire turnover more per game than their wins (0.6 turnovers/win vs. 1.3 turnovers/loss). Along with that, in their wins they give up an average of 22.0 points per game whereas in their losses they’re averaging 36.3 points given up per game. Now, since they only have 3 losses, their week 2 loss at Detroit ballooned that number considering the Lions hung 52 on them, but it still occurred. They’ve also given up 42 points to the Bengals in their win. It kind of averages out, all things considered. It still comes down to turnovers, as it usually does. The Bears are a lesser team, but turnovers are the equalizer, as they typically are.
Who’s the Better Team? And will THAT team win?
Considering Love and the Packers are the best team in the NFL at not turning the ball over, that creates the biggest matchup of strength v. strength. Chicago leads the league in takeaways with 26, while Green Bay leads the league in giveaways with just 7. Should Green Bay commit fewer than 2 turnovers, I don’t see how this Bears team can stop Green Bay’s offense from moving up and down the field, and even settling for field goals a couple of times should be enough for the Packers to pull out the victory.
Matt LaFluer went for 4th down on three separate occasions and all were crucial. The first came on Green Bay’s 3rd possession, it was a 4th & 3 from the Detroit 22, with the Packers leading 3-0. I didn’t like the decision as taking the points would’ve made it 6-0 with complete control, but it proved a valid try as Love connected with Wicks for the first of their 2 touchdowns on the day.
The second occurrence came on their next drive, which was a 4th & 1 from the Detroit 2, with Green Bay leading 10-7. Love hit Doubs on a quick out route to jump the lead 17-7 in the Packers’ favor.
The last attempt was the ultimate aggressive decision, to win the game. After Watson’s drop on 3rd & 3, Love tried to draw the Lions offsides, but “before” the play clock expired, LaFluer called timeout. The next snap we saw Jordan Love hit his iconic fadeaway throw to Wicks who made a great catch for 16 yards, ending the game.
In a tightly contested game against two premier teams in the NFC, these games typically come down to turnovers. Since there were no turnovers, a “Turnover on Downs” acts just as that, a turnover. LaFluer took a page out of the blueprint from Dan Quinn (Washington’s Head Coach) in last season’s NFC Championship game where Quinn and the Commanders beat Detroit at their own game – 4th down assertiveness and completed the task. Green Bay converted their first two 4th downs into Touchdowns (14 points) and held Detroit on both of their attempts…technically resulting in a potentially 28-point swing. Had Detroit converted both of theirs and eventually crossed the goal line that would’ve been an additional 14 points for the Lions and since Green Bay scored 14 on their 2 conversions, had they failed it would’ve taken 14 points off the board for the Packers. While coaches get tons of blame (not undeservedly all the time), they should get credit when things go right. However, what happens is the players need to execute and the Packers DID while the Lions did not. It was clear that was the difference in the game. It essentially acted like the Packers were +4 in the turnover margin of this game, and it felt that way.
All the more reason that generating turnovers is a huge part of the game, but converting on them is far more paramount.
Love Was Outstanding – Sans 1 Throw
Jordan Love kept his Thanksgiving dominance going by delivering 18/30 (60%), 234 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, with a 124.2 rating. That brings Love’s Thanksgiving stats to 61/90 (67.8%), 776 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 126.3 rating across 3 games. The most important of all the stats is that he’s 3-0, against solid teams. Two of those wins are road victories against a very good Detroit Lions team.
The 1 miss throw Love had come on the 1st possession, on 1st & 10 from the Detroit 27. On a busted play, Love created space by stepping up and Melton (in the flat) took off up field and was wide open for a TD, which Love short-armed. Other than that, he was pretty perfect.
Micah Parsons Continues to Come Through
Parsons finished the game with 10 QB pressures, 4 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, and the huge 2 ½ sacks, with 2 coming on Detroit’s final drive (the last holding Detroit out of the end zone). He was truly incredible which is not an understatement, still at this point in the season. He’s now the first player in NFL history to record at least 12 sacks in each of his first 5 seasons – just amazing.
OL Is Beginning to Gain Some Continuity
The Packers stuck with the same OL for the entire game and it made a world of difference. Jordan Morgan, whom I still like, sat the bench with rookie Anthony Belton getting every snap at RG. Kinnard came in as the 6th OL for 14 snaps (22%). LaFluer helped out the OL by calling 35 pass plays to 25 runs and that aggression paid off with Green Bay putting up 31 points and would have been 35 had Love not missed Melton on that first drive. The Packers were able to rush for 125 yards on 30 carries (4.2 yards/carry) with Jacobs getting a bulk of the attempts (17 carries for 83 yards). Also, Love was not sacked and had a clean pocket much of the game and Green Bay was able to control the game.
Worth noting, Rasheed Walker had, arguably, the play of the season snagging a Romeo Doubs fumble at the Detroit 6, leading 24-21 late in the 3rd quarter. The Packers were able to punch it in 3 plays later to extend the lead to 31-21, ultimately proving enough to win the game.
What Now?
This sets up, again, the biggest game of the season as the Bears will travel to Lambeau Field with the winner holding 1st place in the division. It’s been a while since both Chicago and Green Bay had something to play for in their matchup – but here we are.
Quite possibly the only tougher team to figure out than Green Bay is Detroit.
What Does This Game Mean for Both Sides?
This is a major matchup, the biggest of the season for both teams. Green Bay finds themselves 2nd in the division and 6th in the NFC Playoff Picture while Detroit is 3rd in the division and 8th in the NFC.
Should Green Bay win, they likely takeover 1st place in the division (assuming Chicago loses to Philadelphia tomorrow). However, if that’s the case, meaning Detroit loses, their playoff lives are on life support. That present a challenge for Green Bay – Detroit will not only be uber hungry, but desperate.
The good news is the Packers just faced a desperate team and passed with flying colors. The Lions are a different monster than Minnesota…although the Lions just lost to the Vikings on November 3rd (with JJ McCarthy at QB) they still possess the same talent they’ve had over the last few years and are as dangerous a team in the NFL as any.
Who Are the Lions?
Detroit is quite the enigma, similar to the Packers. The Lions had a 4-game stretch scoring 30+ in each game, with one of those being a 52-21 trouncing of the division-leading Chicago Bears in Week 2 following Detroit’s Week 1 loss @ Lambeau Field. Detroit has scored 30+ in 5 of their 11 games while scoring < 20 in three. Their issue is the defense – giving up 24+ in 5 games so far this season. If their offense doesn’t score 20 or more, they lose (0-3 in such games).
The Lions still have the same roster from the past couple of seasons making them quite capable, but are a bit less consistent in all categories for one reason or another. The main difference now is they rely heavily on their X-Factor at running back, Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s on pace for over 2,000 total yards and 20 total Touchdowns. He’s an absolute monster – keeping him in check, much like Green Bay did in their Week 1 matchup – will be the key, along with pressuring QB Jared Goff.
Goff is a very efficient passer and can “take over” a game with quick throws and getting his ample weapons the ball in space, early and often – it’ll be on Green Bay’s pass rush to ensure that doesn’t happen. Pressuring #16 is the key to victory. As we saw in Week 1, the Packers were able to generate quick pressure on Goff making him have “happy feet,” meaning he panics, rushes his throws, throws off-center and it results in incompletions or interceptions. This is another game where Rashan Gary must earn his paycheck. Gary had 1 nice pressure last week that resulted in an “interception” by McDuffie (I believe it was a strip sack and fumble, but the result was the same). Gary need to produce on a far more consistent basis – much like Micah Parsons has, which isn’t a big ask considering Parsons gets double-teamed more than anyone in the league leaving Gary 1-on-1 for the entirety of the game.
Matchup Matrix
This is a matchup of strength vs. strength (GB D v. Det Off.) and middle-of-the-pack vs. middle-of-the-pack (GB Off. v. Det D). Detroit possesses the 4th overall offense with the 2nd scoring offense while Green Bay has the 4th and 5th defense, respectively. Lately, the Packers’ D has done a solid job – really since the 2nd half of the Steelers game where they allowed a garbage time TD (we can call that “empty calories”) and have given up 46 points total in the last 4 games (11.5 points/game). Also, Green Bay just played the Giants, giving up 20 while having an issue with the ground attack…whereas Detroit gave up 27 to the same Giants in less than 48 minutes.
I believe this game will be settled when the Detroit has the ball, because whoever’s strength wins that battle likely comes out on top. Reason being is the Giants just came into Ford Field four days ago and amassed 517 total yards of offense with 395 of those coming through the air. That tells us LaFluer SHOULD put this game on the right arm of Jordan Love and let him sling it. Another reason to throw early and often is Love is the #1 passer in terms of EPA/play on early downs (Expected Points Added). No matter the stats you review, the Packers must pass more if they want to be what they can be – a top-scoring offense on a consistent basis. We saw this come to fruition in the 2nd half of the Pittsburgh game where Love completed 20 consecutive passes and torched the Steelers en route to a blowout road victory in prime time.
Will LaFluer Open It Up and Let Love Win?
As stated above, this should be a no-brainer to air it out. Even the eye test tells us when Green Bay forces the ball downfield, they move down the field, consistently, and the only thing that holds the offense back (other than play-calling/design) are drops or pre-snap penalties. The more often you put yourself in those positions, yes, the more often those “hold backs” occur, but also the more often you move the ball down the field.
The stats all show Love is as efficient when throwing down field as anyone in the league – begging the question, Why don’t we do this more often? It forces the defense to stop you, much like the Steelers game, and even though Tucker Kraft is gone, Christian Watson seems to be 100% or at least is producing like he is. Stretching the defense with Watson allows the offense to operate in the intermediate passing areas of the field opening it up for Doubs, Wicks, and Golden (assuming he’s active today). There’s also been some cryptic messaging from LaFluer about Jayden Reed’s potential return today, which would be a huge boost as well.
The “issue” with all of this is the ill-conceived confidence Green Bay now has following last week’s ground game and the potential return of Josh Jacobs. LaFluer has shown a gameplan of trying to shorten the game (limiting possessions, keeping his defense off the field, and keeping the game tight) banking on his defense to close out the game – all in all, not a bad design, but when you’re as talented (if not more than) as the other team its frustrating to play the game as an underdog all the time. Like the Eagles game, it kept the game close mainly because the defense balled out, but it proved to be too little too late when the offense was asked to score. Get the pass game going early then ice the game with the run is the ideal offense, assuming you’re ripping off 4.5-5.0 yards/carry, otherwise continue to open it up and go for the kill shot when the opportunity presents itself, especially against tough opponents like Detroit.
Who Wins?
It’s a battle of consistency, or lack thereof. Whichever teams’ “weakness” steps up could be the deciding factor – completely negating what I believe will be the key (whichever teams’ strength comes through). It’s a coinflip game in my mind, and yet again, I can see any of these 3 scenarios playing out: a close win; a close loss; or a blowout win.
The Packers had, arguably, their best showing of the season on defense. Green Bay held Minnesota to 145 total yards on just 44 plays (a 3.3 yards/play) while generating 3 turnovers. The Packers also forced three consecutive 3 & outs in the 2nd half, 5 punts, and a turnover on downs. Just an incredible performance all around. Green Bay also had 5 sacks, highlighted by Micah Parsons’ bull rush over Vikings Center, Ryan Kelly, which might’ve been the best play of the season. The longest play the Vikings had was a 22-yard rush by Jordan Mason.
The 2nd half defense might’ve been the best we’ve seen in Green Bay since the Week 8 game of the 2010 season where the Packers pitched a shutout of the NY Jets. Even in that game the Jets gained 360 yards. In Sunday’s game, Hafley’s defense allowed a total of -1 yards on 15 plays and picking off McCarthy twice just in the 2nd half.
Rookie Warren Brinson led the team with 5 QB Pressures, also getting his 1st career sack (half a sack). As mentioned before, Micah Parsons was incredible once again, completely flipping this game sideways. This is now the 7th time Green Bay has held their opponent to < 20 points. No mystery to why this team has 7 wins – easily could be more as the Packers are 4-3 in games giving up less than 20 points. Considering the offense has averaged 10 points in each loss…begs to question, “How close is this team to being 11-0?”
Committed to the Run
Matt LaFluer had a gameplan and was quite stubborn to stick to it. Green Bay ran 65 plays, dropping back on just 25, meaning they called a rush on 40, or 61.5% of the time. The Packers were effective enough, gaining 146 yards on 42 rush attempts (3.5 yards/rush).
Without Josh Jacobs, Green Bay turned to Emanuel Wilson and he delivered enough. It took him 28 carries to reach 107 yards (3.8 yards/rush – oddly enough that’s the same avg. Jacobs has on the season) along with both Packer TD’s. There’s been some chatter from Packer fans (and radio stations) calling for Wilson to be more involved and maybe the starter, but a healthy Jacobs likely goes off for 150-165 yards on his own with 28 carries. Wilson missed hitting some holes on time, and he’s not in the same stratosphere as Jacobs in terms of elusiveness. All in all, a very strong performance at the right time. A major reason for the Packers first 100-yard rusher this season was bringing Rookie big man, Anthony Belton, in at RG to utilize his strength and size to create bigger running lanes – he needs to be the RG moving forward and let Jordan Morgan battle for the LT spot – considering he’s the LT of the future, that would make sense.
Special Teams Came Through
The Special Teams contributed to this win in a big fashion. McManus hit on all 5 of his kicks (3 field goals/2 extra points) which was huge and the game-turning punt fumble/recovery to open the 2nd half. That play essentially won the game. After Green Bay went 6 plays and out, punter Daniel Whelan uncorked a perfect punt which back spun to hit the return man making it a live ball and ultimately Green Bay jumped on. Two plays later Green Bay punched it in to make 17-6, which seemed insurmountable given the way the D was playing and how bad JJ McCarthy has been in his career.
Could’ve Closed It Sooner
After forcing a 3 & out with 2:17 left in the 3rd quarter, Matt LaFluer decided to run the clock out – much like Mike McCarthy tried to do in the 2014 NFC Championship Game. The difference being, McCarthy’s QB was struggling AND facing a top defense whereas Love’s stats aren’t they could’ve/should’ve been due to lack of opportunity. LaFluer ran the ball on all 8 plays of the drive, while leading 17-6. Scoring a TD there ices the game by making it a 3-score game. It’s the “safe” way to play, but while you can trust your defense, you shouldn’t call a game to completely RELY on them, especially against stiffer competition. Now, I’m not saying he should’ve gone for it on 4th down on Minnesota’s 12-yard line leading by 11 early in the 4th quarter, but just running on every play was the play “not to lose” gameplan. It worked, but that can easily come to bite you as early as Thursday against a competent QB and dangerous offense. However, this was the most complete game Green Bay has played, so the answer to the question is YES.
Again, regardless of the outcome of this game and the Giants/Lions game, this Thanksgiving matchup was going to be a monumental one. While neither are leading the division, the winner of this game WILL be the division favorite beginning Friday.
It may have taken Josh Jacobs exiting with an injury on the worst turf in the NFL, but LaFleur finally opened up the passing game (I don’t remember a single bubble-screen) and it paid off. The Packers’ greatest strength on offense is Jordan Love’s right arm. While Love may “look” quite a bit different than Rodgers in how the ball is thrown, or the decision-making, he is a bit more like Favre in his trusting of his Wide Receivers. The WRs reverted to last year’s form by dropping 6 (official) passes, however, kudos to Love (and LaFleur) to stick with it. Continuing to attack defenses both down field and the linebackers in coverage has resulted in Green Bay’s offense to score 27 points, five different times. Oddly enough, in each of those games Green Bay is 5-0 when scoring exactly 27 points. As stated last week – getting away from the run is NOT the answer, but making the pass the priority might just be.
What Does This Matchup Mean for Each Team?
This is a crossroads game for both teams, but far more for Minnesota. The Vikings find themselves in last place of the NF North, trailing Chicago by 3 games (with 7 to play) and the 11th seed of the 7-seeded conference playoff bracket. At 4-6, they’re 2 ½ games back of the 7th (last playoff) seeded San Francisco 49ers. Green Bay currently is 2nd place in the NFC North and the 6th seed in the NFC Playoff Picture, 1 loss behind Philadelphia. If Green Bay wins, it sets up a colossal matchup on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit (it’ll be a huge matchup regardless) for both the division and NFC Playoff seeding. If Green Bay loses, all of the LaFleur slander will return (likely rightfully so), and they will be in a similar boat to Minnesota is currently rowing.
The Packers are at a pivotal portion of their schedule – having 3 consecutive games against division rivals. Should Green Bay rip off 3 wins in the next three games they will be set up beautifully in the NFC playoff seeding and have a firm grasp on the division lead.
Matchup Matrix
It’s clear that when Green Bay has the ball, these teams are evenly matched. Each unit ranks in the middle of the league – maybe the one advantage is Green Bay’s rush attack. However, given the uncertain status of Josh Jacobs, which should force LaFleur to air it out a bit more, it’s imperative the WRs catch the ball, especially when they’re wide open as they’ve been consistently all season. The Vikings play the most Cover 2 & Cover 4 in the NFL (the idea is limiting explosive pass plays downfield), considering that’s what LaFleur wants to do it’s the right scheme to run against him. The challenge with it is the answer to beating Cover 2. Based on Sharp Football Analysis for the 2025 season, Minnesota runs Cover 2 and/or 4 on 63.5% of their defensive calls. This leaves a “light box” making less men in the box to defend the run. The answer – call back – is that Love has been better than excellent exploiting Cover 2 this season – which arguably is the toughest defense to throw against. Even with the OL challenges, Love has proven with his production to beat this on a consistent basis. Couple that and Minnesota ranking 22nd against the run, if schemed properly, the Packers should be able to put up some points while moving the ball.
A Stark Difference In Minnesota’s Offense from 2024
Last year, with Sam Darnold at the helm, Minnesota ranked 12th in total offense and 9th in scoring. Quite the difference compared to 27th and 22nd, respectively. That’s almost entirely due to QB play. Second year pro, JJ McCarthy, has played 5 games, completing just 52.9% of his passes while throwing 8 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. His QB rating on the season is 61.7 ranking him 34th in the entire league for qualified players – keep in mind that there are only 32 teams…The weird thing, and yet another example of how weird the NFL has been this season, is half of their wins have come against the 7-3 Chicago Bears and 6-4 Detroit Lions, both on the road. This should keep Green Bay awake for the potential danger Minnesota brings into their division rivals’ home. Keeping with Micah Parsons’ statement, if Green Bay can hold Minnesota to <20 points, the Packers “should” win. The Vikings have eclipsed 20 points in half of their games (5 of the 10), and in their wins, especially against Chicago and Detroit, they’ve been very good in the 2nd half of each game.
Market (Stat) Adjustment
The 2 late turnovers Green Bay generated last week vs. the Giants felt a bit like a market correction. Here’s yet another opportunity to get multiple takeaways. The Vikings are averaging 1.8 giveaways per game and if Green Bay can get their hands on the ball, much like last week, they should come away with some intereceptionS. Per usual, whoever wins the turnover battle will likely win the game and for the touchdown underdog Vikings to win, they’ll need to win the turnover battle by 1-2, at least. Otherwise, this should be a 2 to 3-score win for the Packers, but we’ve seen this offense sputter all season, so take nothing for granted. Correcting the turnover margin and beginning to take the ball away at a higher clip than they have in the first 10 games, the Packers can help their case to return to not only having a very good defense, but potentially a GREAT defense.
Good News?
Jayden Reed has been out since breaking his clavicle in Week 1. He’s been designated to return from IR, which means he has a 21-day practice window. He practiced yesterday, according to the team’s official site and that would be a welcome sight, especially since Tucker Kraft joined him on IR a couple of weeks ago. Reed could fill the void of Kraft by taking a large portion of the intermediate throws that’s been missing in the Eagles and Giants games. With Reed potentially returning and the great game by Christian Watson last week, the Packers now have 3 legitimate threats with the 3rd needing more than 3 targets in a game, Matthew Golden. Golden ranks 3rd in the NFL in separation score against man coverage and must play more along with garnering more targets. Golden getting his 1st NFL TD would be huge on multiple levels, plus he’s shown to have the best (most consistent) hands on the team. This would be a great confidence-booster to produce v. the 7th-ranked pass defense. Something to keep in mind watching Sunday.
Also, getting Lukas Van Ness back will help fortify the run defense and the pass rush. Both the pass rush pressures and run D have taken a bit of a hit since LVN has been away. #90 returning should help Gary get back on track and set the edge in the ground game. Van Ness is a forgotten piece in all of this, but without Quay Walker (did no practice all week and is listed as DOUBTFUL) it may not matter. While it would be great to get all of these guys healthy, it’s more imperative to have them available and as healthy as possible in December and January than risk further injury in mid-November, possibly costing them the remainder of the season.
The Bad News
Speaking of the pressure, the defense has generated to the standard set in the first 2 weeks of the season, and that falls on Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, to fix the issue. Whether that’s designing new/different schemes, getting different personnel groupings, or bringing pressure via blitzes more often they must improve and make the opposing QB uncomfortable. All of that could happen, or at least something, but more importantly the answer could be found on the roster already…in the form of Rashan Gary. He needs to be taking over games since Micah Parsons garners all of the attention from offenses (deservedly so) given he’s making $25,771,138 this season. Gary is accounting for the 2nd most cap space on the roster and needs to play like it. Earn your pay. Coming alive in the 2nd half of the season, at Lambeau, vs. a desperate divisional opponent is as good a time as any – also it’d give the Lions another piece to gameplan around.
Prediction Time
Considering the standings in both the NFC North and entire NFC, Minnesota is playing for their playoff lives while Green Bay is playing for positioning and validation for being considered one of the better teams in the NFL. While the Packers lost both games against the Vikings a season ago, they were plenty alive in the 4th quarter of each game after mounting big comebacks in each game, ultimately losing both games by a combined 4 points. If LaFleur throws early and often, Green Bay could finally get the train back on the tracks, and at the right time.
Green Bay finally got 2 turnovers, late in the game, which was the icing on the cake. While they came on the last two drives – that’s usually the best time to have them. The silver lining is that the Packers could’ve had 5 interceptions. Carrington Valentine had 2 dropped INTs alone, Nixon had one on a deep shot, and Bullard had one in his grasp before McDuffie knocked it away. At least they got their hands on the ball multiple times, but will need to convert them to turnovers in the coming weeks, especially against better competition.
The Defense Did Just Enough to Win
Green bay had 2 sacks, both by Micah Parsons, both in huge moments. The first on a 4th & 3 from the Green Bay 10-yard line late in the 3rd quarter. The other was the final play of the game. The issue is, much like Carolina, the Giants wanted to shorten the game by playing keep away and they did just that, but the difference here was GB’s offense came through. The offense ended up scoring touchdowns on 50% of their possessions (4 TDs on 8 possessions).
The Giants ran for 142 yards on 38 attempts (3.7 yards/rush), while that’s an acceptable average for a defense, when facing a desperate/aggressive team, they’ll go for it on 4th down more often (as the rest of the NFL is converting to) that avg. will still result in 1st downs. Speaking of 4th downs, New York converted 3 of their four conversions. The one they didn’t was the Parsons sack, which kept points off the board, and in a tight game, a big play. That and the Evan Williams’ INT were the difference in the game.
Love Played An Incredible Game
While his stat line won’t look incredible – 13/24, 174 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 105.2 rating – it easily could’ve been much better. The 6 drops accounted for an additional 76 yards, meaning his stat line would’ve been 19/24, 250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 137.9 rating. Essentially his only “bad” play was lowering his shoulder and taking a hit which caused him to miss a drive. Thankfully Malik Willis is one of the best backup QBs in the NFL and he was able to complete the drive for a TD, even though I’m not quite sure Watson (who caught the 1st of his two TDs) was the intended receiver. The total QB stat line of the game was:
15/26
168 yards
2 TD
0 INT
117.5 rating
The Special Teams Are Still A Problem
There were at least 2 penalties, one negating very good field position on a punt return – and while it was wildly windy, there were 2 extra points missed. Havrisik has been a healthy scratch since the Arizona game, McManus’ leg apparently wasn’t healthy and now there’s a kicking issue in Green Bay…Couple all of this with the fact our return man (regardless of whom) are last in the NFL – again, a significant problem.
Remaining Questions
Will LaFleur put the offense in Love’s hands – as he was forced to when Jacobs left with his leg injury? It seems to have been working every time he’s been asked to do so, or at least gives us the best chance at winning giving the current construct of this offensive line.
Will Love be able to overcome said OL and Special Teams deficiencies to take this team to hoisting a Lombardi Trophy? We’ll find out over the next 3 weeks, should Green Bay win, we’ll be in great shape moving forward.
The Green Bay Packers find themselves 3rd in the NFC North and holding onto the last playoff spot (7th seed) in the NFC Playoff Picture. The offense must find consistency and efficiency – and that must come from Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. While the offensive line bears the blunt of the blame, and no Super Bowl winner has had a bad OL, if the Head Coach and QB are as good as we need them to be they need to overcome the teams’ main deficiency. While it goes against all the adages of the fundamentals of football – but this is the boat we’re in – but, a pass-first offense is the only path forward. Being able to run the ball is paramount, especially in the Red Zone and to close out games in the 4th quarter, but the pass can set up the run and play-action, which is what this OL needs.
Turning to the opponent, the New York Giants blew a late lead in Chicago last weekend which was Brian Daboll’s last straw. The Giants fired their Head Coach after the collapse against the Bears – much of it coming from their star rookie QB, Jaxson Dart, getting concussed and not being able to return. Now the Giants have an interim Head Coach and are starting their 3rd string QB. Sounds like a recipe for a blowout, however, Jameis Winston is as dangerous as he is entertaining. He’s started 3 games against Green Bay in his career and has fared extremely well vs. the Packers.
While going 1-2, his stat line is:
45/68 (66.2%)
519 yards
7 TD
0 INT
123.3 Rating
Those are Aaron Rodgers-type stats, for the regular season, however he has yet to see Jeff Hafley and this Packers defense. While Winston can make all the throws, Green Bay needs to generate multiple turnovers and show they’re one of the best teams in the NFL as that confidence has been shattered across, not only, Green Bay fans, but the entire league.
Matchup Matrix
The Packers offense couldn’t ask for a much better opponent in order to get their groove back on track. The giants can’t stop the run, are bad against the pass, and are the 5th-worst in scoring defense. This is a great opportunity to gain over 120 yards on the ground, 300 yards through the air, and hang 40 setting up a “Get Right Game.” Even if the Packers accomplish this, it likely won’t change the feeling of Packer Nation, but will restore SOME confidence in that they can execute efficiently and score points at a high-clip.
Outside of the 2nd half against Pittsburgh, it’s been a rough go. Green Bay has only scored 14 points in the 2nd half of the last 2 games, that simply won’t cut it, especially considering the offense hasn’t scored in first quarter in 5 of their 9 games so far this season. The Packers have been a great 4th quarter team this season, having only been shut out in the last quarter in week 3 in Cleveland, which was their 1st loss of their season. All in all, if Green Bay can figure out how to start fast, they’re undefeated in those games. When the Packers have scored in the 1st quarter, they’re 3-0-1. In each of those games they’ve also put up considerable points in the 4th quarter to either force OT or seal the W. It’s imperative that LaFleur and the offense start fast allowing their defense to play with the lead and really lean on their pass rush to disrupt their opponents – given that the Giants simply aren’t a good team, it belabors the point, but it’s another reason to believe that Green Bay can get back on track. They need to score and score often. There’s only been 1 game that the Packers have scored in each quarter (Week 4 @ Dallas), and that’s the model for consistency that’s needed to prove how good of a team they are.
Prediction Time
With the Giants having an interim Head Coach, Mike Kafka, and starting 3rd stringer (Jameis Winston) they’ll likely be very aggressive as they’re playing with nothing to lose. While dangerous, Green Bay can really capitalize by generating turnovers and putting up a ton of points. If the Packers were rolling, much like last year v. San Fran, Miami, and New Orleans, this is a game they should control from start to finish. Look for Green Bay to begin the correction of the trajectory of the season today and start marching toward their goal – Super Bowl champion.
As good as the Defense has played in the 3 losses, the Offense has been that poor. As I’ve stated the entire season, the OL is to blame – at least primarily – for all of this. With just an average OL, Green Bay would be 8-0-1 and that’s assuming the Special Teams were still as awful as they’ve been all season. There’s quite a bit to unpack here.
Play-Calling/Design/Scheme
Has the play-calling been awful? Kind of…The statements being uttered in Packer Nation is that “LaFleur is calling plays as if he doesn’t trust Jordan Love.” Mainly starting the game (and most drives) with run-run and using minimal play-action. To defend Matt LaFleur, the best way to get the offensive line in rhythm is to run the ball. It makes pass blocking easier, while setting up almost every play call/design. The problem is the OL can’t run block. Jacobs keeps getting contacted BEHIND the line of scrimmage. Then on passing downs it’s even more obvious and teams can generate pressure with 4. Regardless of the QB that’s a recipe for disaster. Couple that with being in 3rd & long (due to not being able to run the ball or using pass on early downs) the Defense can sit in 2-high shell (2 safeties on the back end of the defense) to keep from the big play down field. If you’re limited in your time to throw your WRs can’t get downfield deep enough to get the yardage to gain for a 1st. If the D is only bringing 4, that leaves them with 7 men to cover, at most, 5 receivers. If they’re getting pressure with 4, then it’s likely the offense is keeping a back or Tight End in to help thus dropping your targets to 4, possibly 3 if you’re keeping both in…that’s a huge problem. Considering you have 5 offensive linemen to block 4 pass rushers, it’s a pure numbers game and you’re losing that over the course of a game.
The Packers host the Eagles on Monday Night Football tonight (11/10/2025).
What’s At Stake?
The Eagles leap-frogged Green Bay to takeover the #1 seed in the NFC playoff standings. This was always going to be a huge game, but with the Packers’ tie, tiebreakers won’t come into play, so it’s just pure overall record that’ll matter when Green Bay’s involved. The winner takes control of their destiny with Seattle currently holding the 1-spot.
How Can Green Bay Win?
While Green Bay opened this game as a 2 ½ point favorite, currently a 1-point favorite, it sure feels like the Eagles are the better team. Maybe that’s due to Green Bay not putting a full game together and coming off a bad loss. Philly’s defense, however, hasn’t been nearly as good this year as last. The Eagles give up over 120 yards on the ground per game and the Packers must capitalize on that rush defense. Green Bay needs to get the ground game going, which will help the offensive line’s confidence (more on that later) – if Josh Jacobs can eclipse the 100-yard mark, that me be the path to victory.
Philadelphia also has issues with their defensive backfield, hence why they acquired Michael Carter and Jaire Alexender – even though Jaire didn’t make the trip back to Green Bay (another healthy scratch, as it would appear). The Eagles still have Quincy Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, and are returning Nakobi Dean and Nolan Smith from injury, that should help boost their pass rush and linebacking coverage. Couple that with the Packers’ loss of Tucker Kraft, that swings the advantage a bit more in the Eagles’ favor.
Back to running the ball – that will be the key in the game as well as turnovers – as always. If the Packers can keep Saquon Barkley in check (think <80 rush yards or <100 scrimmage yards) that should put the ball in Hurts’ hands to win the game, which he’s been very good this year, but still provides the best path to victory.
Matchup Matrix
As you can see, the Packers have the advantage in the statistical rankings in every category. Regardless of who has the ball, Green Bay has the advantage…on paper. Micah Parsons must have a game and force Hurts into mistakes to generate turnoverS (capital S, plural). Jordan Love also must play well, which he has been, but he must finish drives in the end zone. With that, should this be a “normal” game, meaning there are more than 7 possessions in the game, if Green Bay scores a field goal on every drive that would tally 30 points. It’s difficult to lose when scoring 30+, while that’ll be a tough task, even against the 19th scoring defense, Green Bay needs to be efficient in the red zone and score touchdowns. Neither team generates turnovers, but also they don’t turn it over. Each of these teams rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in giveaways – whichever team holds onto the ball will come out ahead in the end.
Main Issue – Still an Issue
It’s been the same issue plaguing Green Bay all season; Offensive Line. To expect the OL to magically improve is bordering on the definition of insanity. Now, there are different schemes that could put the OL in better positions to succeed – mainly keeping with the ground game and utilizing play-action off of it. Even if Green Bay doesn’t run the ball successfully, just running the ball will allow play-action to be effective. If the play-calling and design is on point, the offense can hang points with anyone in the league, and should.
Something to Notice
In the first 2 games of the season (Week 1 v. Detroit and Week 2 v. Washington) the defense was flying to the football and that’s been missing since. Green Bay needs to get back to the aggressive-style of defense and get back on track. Forcing teams to execute more influences them to run more plays each drive which behooves the defense as the likelihood of a penalty or negative play is more likely. Thus, getting turnovers, a sack, holding call, anything that can stall a drive and get you the ball back. The name of the game is getting explosive plays on offense and limiting them on defense – the best way to limit those is good, quick, tackling. Broken tackles lead to yards after the catch/contact, and there are less and less defenders as the ball is moving down the field. Green Bay flying to the football is paramount and what made them look like the best team in the NFL through the first 2 weeks of the season and why everyone (national media as well) thought they were the team to beat in the entire NFL. Get back to that.
Prediction Time
The spread for this game opened as Green Bay being favored by 2 ½ (as stated above), but has since dwindled to 1.0 in favor of the Packers (as of this writing midday on Monday). The frustrating thing about this Packers team is they can beat anyone, however, they also have proven they can lose to anyone. They seem to play to the quality of their opponent, and the reason for it doesn’t matter because it takes both coaches and players to make this happen – mainly the players. It may be a cop out, but I see this game going 1 of 3 ways…either a Packers blowout or close win, or an Eagles close win. I don’t see the Packers getting blown out, because that’s not who they are. They’re always in the game and it never gets out of hand at any point – this season or almost any game under LaFleur – other than the Week 1 game vs. New Orleans in 2021 where they lost 38-3.
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