The season has come and gone.  While it was the longest season in NFL history, when your team is winning, it sure seems to go by quickly.  While the game was about as meaningless as a preseason game – there’s still some things from it to draw. 

Review~ Week 18 @ Detroit

                Offense: 1^st team offense obviously came into this week to work on timing and a few basic formations.  That first drive, it was apparent, they were going to incorporate Davante Adams as much as they could to get him the Packers single-season receiving yards record, which they should’ve done.  However, they didn’t really get into their true offense until the 4^th possession.  A possession with a nice mix of 4 rushes and 3 passes, totaling 76 yards in 4:26, resulting in an Allen Lazard 29-yard TD.  While it was against the Lions, it should’ve been indicative to most that had Green Bay come into this game “having to win,” they may have put up 6 to 7 touchdowns. 

I also seem to be in the growing minority (oxymoron?) that I still need to see more of Jordan Love before I’m ready to move on from him.  However, that doesn’t mean to pass by a quarterback (whether in the draft or otherwise) should one be available you think could help.  Of the 2 interceptions, one was on him (the last one to seal the game) as he just let it fly, which was better than taking a sack in that situation – the 1^st one (while tipped) hit disappointing rookie Amari Rodgers in the bread basket.  Those two turnovers, coupled with the lost fumble by Juwann Winfree on the Packers’ first possession of the 2^nd half led to a 3-0 turnover advantage for Detroit.  Something not seen by a Packers offense since the Week 1 blasting at the hands of the New Orleans Saints.  Again, this game counts (technically) and should for the final statistics as every team has games like this, but it’s not telling of who the Packers are – at least let’s hope not.

                Defense:  while Adrian Amos stated they practiced all week in preparation for Detroit, and the gameplan was to come out to play well and win, what else was he going to say when asked?  It was also revealing that the defense came out and displayed a very vanilla game plan.  There were 2 goals and one was to “not get hurt.”  While I don’t like that mentality, as that’s a good way to actually get hurt, putting guys in positions to not make plays will result in less collisions and ultimately limit the chances of injury – hence almost no blitzing from the Packers defense. 

The Packers’ defense may not be top 2 in scoring (which has been my claim in order for Aaron Rodgers to hoist a Lombardi Trophy), but they certainly are good enough to win a Super Bowl.

The main stat for the defense, aside from scoring – Green Bay finished T-13^th giving up 21.8 points per game.  That’ll be more than enough for the naysayers to claim “Green Bay’s defense is the issue, yet again.”  While maybe that’s a case, plenty of other teams with far inferior QB-play (allegedly) have won with worse defenses.  Green Bay did take the ball away 26 times to rank T-8^th.  Couple that with them blitzing only 21.3% of the time (25^th) however generating a hurry rate of 11.3% (9^th) which seems to be a direct correlation to Opponent Passer Rating (86.9 to rank 10^th), that’s the encouraging stat line.  While I love running the ball and stopping the run, to win playoff games and ultimately championships it comes down to quarterback play (hence why they’re judged on rings) and making clutch throws at clutch times – the Packers seem to be very efficient in that department, on both sides of the ball.

Wild Card Weekend~ what’s become a Matt LaFleur annual tradition, the Packers will be resting and watching the Wild Card games with no stress to the fans.  Green Bay will face one of 4 opponents: Philadelphia; San Francisco; Arizona; Los Angeles.  As noted in my other article for www.wisportsheroics.com the Packers may not be the strongest team in the NFC, however they do have the best record in the NFL vs. current playoff teams at 5-1, with the sole loss coming at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead with Jordan Love starting in place of Aaron Rodgers. 

To attempt to find the “strongest” team, I’ve alluded to point differential, turnover margin, scoring ranks, etc.  I figured combining all of those ranks and dividing them evenly – while maybe not being the best method – would give a bit more accurate of a depiction of a team other than their record.

		Rush O.	Rush D.	Pass O.	Pass D.	Total O.	Total D.	Pts O.	Pts D.	T/O	Pt. Diff.	Sched.	Avg. Rank.
1	GB	18	10	8	10	10	9	10	13	3	10	22	11.2
2	TB	26	3	1	21	2	13	2	5	6	4	4	7.9
3	Dal	9	16	2	20	1	19	1	7	1	2	31	9.9
4	LAR	25	6	5	22	9	17	8	15	13	6	1	11.5
5	Ari	10	20	10	7	8	11	11	11	4	9	2	9.4
6	SF	7	7	12	6	7	3	13	10	22	12	5	9.5
7	Phi	1	9	25	11	14	10	12	18	16	13	30	14.5

When re-ordering based on the “Avg. Rank,” it would re-seed the NFC like:

1. Tampa Bay
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. Dallas
5. Green Bay
6. LA Rams
7. Philadelphia

The one thing that’s tough to account for is each team’s true homefield advantage.  The Packers went 8-0 at Lambeau this year, mainly because they’re a good team.  They also beat San Francisco and Arizona on the road while besting Los Angeles and Pittsburgh at home.  There’s something to be said for “knowing how to win,” I’m just not so sure that’s measurable, aside from, well…record.

Until we find out Green Bay’s opponent, have fun watching Wild Card Weekend.

Season: 12-5
Overall: 81-41

Review~

Offense: the HB production was solid once again.  The halfback production was very solid.

• #33 Jones: 13 touches; 106 yards
• #28 Dillon: 16 touches; 83 yards; 2 TDs
• Total: 29 touches; 189 yards; 2 TDs. 

That’ll do.  Do that in the postseason, and the offense should have success and keep the defense off the field, while controlling the line of scrimmage. 

Another non-surprising statement, Davante Adams is the best Wide Receiver in franchise history.  While he may not possess the statistics showing so, it’s clear he’s the best mismatch since Sterling Sharpe, and has a superior skill set AND rapport with his QB.  He’s also the best WR in the NFL.  I thought Tirico covered it brilliantly (and I’ll paraphrase) “While Cooper Kupp may win the wide receiver triple crown, the nuance with Adams and Rodgers separates these two from any others.”

The offensive line still needs improvement, but has held its own all season.  They didn’t give up a sack the last 2 games now – and keep in mind they faced Myles Garrett last week and a tough, well-coached Zimmer defense this passed Sunday.  While Bakhtiari and Myers practiced today (Wed, Jan 5^th), who knows if they’re just prepping for the Divisional round game, but there’s hope of possible help coming.  However, they’ve shown to be good enough and not the reason the Packers won’t win the Super Bowl.

                Defense: a very good showing vs. a bad OL & backup QB.  However, we shouldn’t harshly judge them for literally doing their job.  They didn’t generate any turnovers, but did get 2 sacks, held Minnesota to 206 total yards, and most-impressively, held all-world HB #33 Dalvin Cook to 13 total yards on 12 touches.  Absolutely incredible, even with a backup QB.  As my cousin stated (he’s a coach) during the game, “If I’m coaching, Dalvin Cook touches the ball 40 times vs. this run defense.”  That should’ve been the plan, but that’s on them (Minnesota).

Safety #26 Darnell Savage has had a rough few weeks (actually season compared to the last 2 years), but if he’s the “weak link,” the Packers’ D will be ok.  He gave up the TD to Osborne this week, and has been beaten on a few long pass plays this season, but he did have a nice INT vs. Mayfield on Christmas Day to maintain momentum. 

Lastly, #59 MLB De’Vondre Campbell might be a must-sign.  Unless another team gives him stupid money, Green Bay might have to think about retaining him, and yes, that’s with the return of solid MLB #54 Kamal Martin, next year.  Campbell’s play recognition and pass coverage has been absolutely dazzling this season, and has made this defense a top-10 scoring D. 

                Special Teams: it should be pretty apparent that #82 David Moore is the new return man.  He gets away from the ball when it’s too short, doesn’t dance and has the one-cut and go, and experience. 

Mason Crosby (blame me if it fails, I guess) seems to have it figured out.  Like I stated prior, he’s taking a bunch of power off his kicks, but has drilled 9 of his last 10, and made all of his extra points.  Would still love to see him drill touchbacks on every kickoff, but wind is tough to judge from my couch.

Current Standing~

• Seeding: We know the Packers secured the 1-seed, which is amazing, but now must capitalize on it.
• Point Differential: +86 which ranks 10^th in the NFL.  If the starters played ALL of week 18, that might be closer to +100 – +110, which would put them in the top 8.  I’ve since been added as a contributor to Wisconsin Sports Heroics and will expound on that statistic there. 

Matchup~

	GB Def.	(rank)	vs.	Det Off.	(rank)
Rush	109.8	13		111.7	18
Pass	213.7	9		205.8	21
Total	323.4	11		317.5	22
Pts	20.9	8		18.0	28
	GB Def.			Det Def.
Rush	111.1	19		135.9	28
Pass	253.7	9		244.0	25
Total	364.8	12		379.9	28
Pts	26.3	10		27.3	30
T/O
Takeaways	26	7th		16	T-24th
Giveaways	10	1st		23	T-20th
Diff.	16	T-1st		(7)	25th

The Packers hold the advantage in each and every category of this matchup.  The Lions have been playing tough all year, and Dan Campbell (their head coach) has them playing tough…this will be their Super Bowl.  Green Bay will likely have all reserves for the 2^nd half, and likely longer than that, especially if the 1^st string looks great to start. 

Preview~ Green Bay has a chance to get a ton of 2^nd stringers great live snaps vs. NFL competition right before the most-important stretch of the season.  If no one else gets injured, Green Bay can return any or all of the starters that have missed a majority of the season, AND the backups become even more prepared…this could set the Packers up in an ideal scenario heading into the bye week.

Packers 27
Lions 24

Season: 12-4
Overall: 81-40

Review~ the team is doing just enough to win.  Based on True Strength (point differential ranking) Green Bay ranks 11^th in the NFL.  That feels a little low, as it’s a bit skewed from that week 1 35-point loss, but still should count somewhat. 

Defense- while getting gashed in the ground game, they did come up with 4 turnovers and a 2-point stop.  Also, on a 2^nd & 7 with 13:36 left in the game up 24-15, Eric Stokes dropped an INT that would’ve given the Packers the ball at about midfield with a 2-score lead.  That momentum swing might’ve clinched it there, tough to speculate, but definitely wouldn’t have hurt.  There was a tweet put out this week that the 5 games leading up to the BYE, Green Bay shut down the opposing run game (which is true).  Then since, the last 3 games have been torched (also accurate).  If you dive into that a bit deeper, you’ll see the matchups are a bit off – Arizona was 5^th, KC 14^th, Sea 25^th, Min 9^th, and LAR 24^th.  Hardly focused on running the ball.  The opponents since all ranked in the top 8 in the NFL.  Not an excuse, but something to keep an eye on.  To win in the NFL, you must pressure the passer.  Green Bay ranks 12^th in pressure % (pressuring the QB on 11.2% of dropbacks), and 8^th in opposing QB rating (84.6).  Those stats, are more important than team rush defense, at least when January rolls around. 

Lastly, the addition/production of Rasul Douglas cannot be overstated.  He’s somehow improving with each week, and coming up with primetime interceptions at the biggest points of games.  It’s truly remarkable – and has been a far better addition than JJ Watt (another season-ending injury), Stephon Gilmore, and Odell Beckham Jr. 

Offense~ Aaron Rodgers has compiled impressive stats, once again, and actually came up with a big time throw on 3^rd and 6 from GB’s 42-yard line with 2:19 left.  The rare (not strong enough of a word) drop by Devante opened the door for Cleveland.  That throw is promising as the Packers will need 1-3 of those per playoff game if they want to advance.  Defense came up and made the stop, so another good team win vs. a desperate team.  Rodgers did say that they need to (and I’m paraphrasing) “put teams away.”  He’s right, however over the course of his career, in each loss in the postseason the defense gets the automatic blame (not entirely inaccurate), but the offense struggled as well in key moments – him too.  He seems different this year than almost any other year – maybe that’s my fandom leaking through, maybe not.  Either way, he seems about as focused as ever and not as pouty, but rather truly frustrated vs. casting blame – all speculation obviously coming from a distance, just how I see it.

Special Teams~ what seemed like vast improvement over the last 2 weeks, there are still some items to clean up/figure out.  However, the nice thing is that Mason Crosby has been 3-of-3 on Field Goals and 13/13 on extra point attempts since the BYE.  So maybe he figured out how to correct the issue.  It sure seems like he’s a bit more methodical and “taking some juice off” his kicks to ensure accuracy.  Points are premium, and fine by me if that shortens his range – only allows the offense to stay more aggressive.  Then, if we find ourselves in a situation before the half or end of the game and need a bomb, he’s capable. 

Matchup~ speaking of desperate, the Minnesota Vikings are as desperate as possible.  With only an 18% chance of making the playoffs (according to some statistician at the NY Times, good interactive article: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/minnesota-vikings-nfl-playoff-picture.html

	Min O.	(rank)	vs.	GB D.	(rank)
Rush	119.9	12		115.3	18
Pass	255.5	9		216.0	10
Total	375.4	9		331.3	11
Pts	25.6	12		21.6	14
	Min D.			GB O.
Rush	130.5	28		106.9	21
Pass	248.5	27		250.1	11
Total	379.0	29		357.1	15
Pts	24.8	23		25.5	13
T/O
Takeaways	22	11th		26	T-6th
Giveaways	13	3rd		10	1st
Diff.	9	6th		16	1st

Preview~ Each team’s offense will have the upper-hand, which doesn’t bode well for Green Bay, considering the struggles vs. good running backs, and Minnesota returns a fresh-legged Dalvin Cook.  In addition, Justin Jefferson had a career day vs. Green Bay in Week 11 (Green Bay’s last loss).  Jefferson had 8 catches for 169 yards and 2 TDs.  That’s some serious production.  The weather may play a factor, meaning to keep and eye on the ground game for both teams.  The Vikings feature a solid combo of #33 Dalvin Cook (certifiable stud) and #25 Alexander Mattison, a worthy 2^nd stringer that’s a solid spot-starter.  Mattison has 685 yards and 4 TDs this season (rush + receiving), combined with Cook’s 1,288 yards and 6 TDs, creates a monumental test for Green Bay heading into the postseason.

Both teams feature decent offenses (by production) with some serious artillery, defenses that can be had – Green Bay’s been giving up 27.3 points/game since the bye, but have done just enough to win by creating turnovers and stopping two key 2-point conversions the last two weeks and creating a boatload of turnovers. 

It’s a Pick Your Poison – focus on Cook or Jefferson (#19 Adam Thielen is out for the season).  While I normally like stopping the run, this is a passing league and stopping the huge chunk plays seems to dictate the outcome more than yards per carry.  Minnesota is desperate, they play every game close, and are coming in with a “Nothing to lose” attitude.  With that, Green Bay has a chance to seal the 1-seed should Arizona best Dallas earlier on Sunday.

Vikings 24
Packers 31

Season: 11-4
Overall: 80-40

Review~ the Packers sorely missed DT Kenny Clark (just named to his 2^nd Pro Bowl), and it led to the backup QB’d Ravens (which Huntley may be better than Lamar…he’s a better passer, lesser athlete) coming within a 2-point conversion of likely winning.  There wasn’t a ton of pressure put on as the Ravens didn’t have to account for Clark’s presence.  It allowed TE Mark Andrews to tear up the Packers’ secondary (mainly Savage) in man coverage. 

Throughout the game, Baltimore really moved the ball well.  Of their 8 possessions (9 if you include the 1-play kneel down before half), they scored on 5 of them (4 touchdowns and 1 FG).  Remember, on their 1^st drive they decided to go for it on 4^th and were denied.  So, the Packers did make 2 goal line stands (first drive & 2-point conversion) to ice the game.  True bend-but-don’t-break, scary but effective when it works.

                Offense—the offense hit its stride on the 2^nd possession.  The first possession it was close to hitting a home run, when on 3^rd down, Adams ran a beautiful sluggo and was wide open, but Rodgers just overthrew him.  After each team had a possession, the Ravens led in Time of Possession, 7:22 v 1:33.  And after Baltimore scored a TD on their second possession, they led in that category, 10:54 v 1:33.  The key is neither team had a turnover, but the Packers utilized the running backs in all facets of the game.  They mainly relied on Rodgers’ arm – as they should, he’s been on fire the last month +.  Aaron Jones & A.J. Dillon combined to produce 105 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 22 touches.  Green Bay finished the game with a 31:10 v 28:50 time of possession lead.  Again, not the best indicator of W’s vs. L’s, but it’s something that really helps the Defense and overall team.  Plus, when your offense has the ball, the other team can’t score (aside from a turnover). 

The one glaring issue, most will continue to focus on special teams, however Mason seems to have “taken some off” on his kicks and has nailed all of them since.  It could render an issue on 50+-yarders, but until then, he’s been closer to normal.  Hopefully that trend continues.  The issue I’m bringing up, is with 12:54 left in the 4^th quarter, Baltimore went for it on 4^th down from their own 29-yard line.  The Packers got the stop and hit Big Dog for a 23-yard gain on the ensuing play.  With 1^st & goal from the 6, Green Bay failed to score a game-winning TD and settled for a FG.  While that proved to be enough, instead of 35-17 with 9:26 left, it was 31-17, a much more realistic score to mount a comeback…

Current Standing~ with Tampa and Arizona both losing, Green Bay finds themselves in great position to earn back-to-back 1 seeds, which is so important with there only being one BYE in each of the conference’s playoff tree.  Green Bay wins out and earns the 1, otherwise would need Dallas to drop one more (which could easily happen). 

Matchup~

	Cle O.	(rank)	vs.	GB D.	(rank)
Rush	139.6	4		107.9	13
Pass	201.5	26		217.9	9
Total	341.1	18		325.8	8
Pts	20.9	19		21.6	10
	Cle D.			GB O.
Rush	105.6	9		106.8	21
Pass	216.1	8		253.6	9
Total	321.7	6		360.4	14
Pts	21.8	14		25.6	13
T/O
Takeaways	18	18th		22	8th
Giveaways	14	T-4th		10	1st
Diff.	4	10th		12	T-2nd

Cleveland presents 2 major challenges, one on each side of the ball.  First, the Browns feature one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and running backs, in #24 Nick Chubb.  He’s amassed over 1,000 yards rushing, at a 5.4 yards/carry clip, to go along with 9 TDs.  The key for the Packers’ DL (with the return of Clark) is to slow him down and not let him or their OL takeover.  Again, time of possession may be key.  The other key is turnover differential.  The Packers didn’t take it away vs. Baltimore (although got 2 turnovers on downs), and must not give it away.  The issue on Cleveland’s defensive side is #95 Myles Garrett.  He currently has 15 sacks and is a game-wrecker.  Bill Huber of si.com wrote about how 3^rd string LT #73 Yosh Nijman has fared vs. the NFL’s top pass-rushers.  He’s done an incredible job in keeping Rodgers, not only upright, but given him a fairly clean pocket.  If Green Bay needs to shift help, that could spell trouble, but I trust the best coach in the NFL (Matt LaFleur) to run the ball and operate an efficient offense based off the run schemes.

Win the Turnover battle and/or time of possession and win the game, keeping the 1-seed.  Oh yeah, also GO COLTS in the night game tonight vs. Arizona.

Browns 27
Packers 31

Season: 10-4
Overall: 79-40

These teams have lost as many, or more, starter snaps to injury as any teams in the NFL. Yet both are in the mix.

Review~

Special Teams: Not that it needs to be stated, but Special Teams, are, well, um…special.  Thankfully the Bears are that bad that it didn’t cost the Packers the game.

• Crosby hit a 20-yard FG, and all 6 of his extra point attempts – knocked a kickoff OB, and almost nailed another OB.
• Without getting into each failure – the special teams cost Green Bay anywhere from 19-42 points (in total). 

Defense: The defense, similar to the Rams game, aside from 2 plays enjoyed themselves.  Yet another pick-6 by Rasul Douglas (Yours Truly thought Green Bay would have 2 in the game), and every other aspect was executed fairly well. 

                The 2 plays accounted for 14 points (end around to Grant and the slant route to Byrd), and it shouldn’t be minimized as that was killer in last year’s NFC title game vs. Tampa Bay (big TD to Mike Evans to go up 7-0, then right before half after Aaron’s INT, to Scotty Miller to increase the lead 21-10).  This needs to be handled, and soon, as the QB-play ramps up a bit in January.  Oh yeah, not to get ahead of ourselves, but we’ll likely see that guy who’s won 7 super bowls.

Offense: While starting slow, again, the offense really hit stride and once they find a groove (coupled with the defense getting off the field to keep the O in rhythm), they’re fun to watch…and can take over a game – in turn which applies a boatload of pressure to the opposing QB. 

        Once the offense began running the ball, that rhythm ensued.  Excluding Kurt Benkert’s kneel downs, the Packers had 22 rushes for 120 yards…great production.  The time of possession, which began poorly, quickly turned into an advantage, essentially winning it 35 minutes to Chicago’s 25. 

Current Standing: thanks to the LA Rams for besting Arizona on Monday Night Football, the Packers currently hold the #1 seed, via tiebreaker.  Yes, the 1 seed didn’t assist the Packers last season, but a team with a bye has won the Super Bowl about 50% of the time since 1992 (beginning of Free Agency), and with the 1-seed having the only bye, I’ll take my chances and it would be the chance for the Packers to win the Super Bowl by getting the BYE.

Matchup~

	GB Def.	(rank)	vs.	Bal Off.	(rank)
Rush	105.2	9		144.8	3
Pass	218.5	9		243.2	12
Total	323.6	6		388.0	5
Pts	20.9	7		23.4	17
	GB Off.			Bal Def.
Rush	107.6	20		85.5	1
Pass	253.8	9		266.1	31
Total	361.5	13		351.5	18
Pts	25.2	14		21.8	10
T/O
Takeaways	22	8th		11	T-29th
Giveaways	10	T-1st		20	T-21st
Diff.	12	2nd		(9)	29th

It seems the red-hot Aaron Rodgers should have a fun time facing the 31^st ranked pass defense, especially with Baltimore ravaged with positive Covid cases in the secondary.  The Ravens will try to shorten the game, by running the ball and playing ball-control offense, keeping Aaron off the field.  The issue is the Ravens are somehow 8-5 with an awful Turnover differential, that’s actually impressive.  Keep an eye on Special Teams, Baltimore features very solid play at all special team positions – with the best Kicker of all time, Justin Tucker. 

The Ravens will be missing Lamar Jackson and DT/DE Calais Campbell (very solid player for a long time).  Green Bay will be missing Billy Turner, as far as starters go.  It’s difficult to imagine the Packers losing this game, even if Lamar played, but the only way I see that happening is if they lay a dud, ala Week 1 vs. New Orleans (in Jacksonville).

Packers 27
Ravens 20

Season: 9-4
Overall: 78-40

Current Standing~ the Packers can clinch the NFC North Divisional title with a Vikings loss tonight vs. Pittsburgh AND a win vs. Chicago on Sunday Night.  There are other scenarios for clinching a playoff berth, but with 5 games left, meh.  Winning out is the object as that’s likely what’s needed to obtain the #1 seed, for the second consecutive season. 

While Green Bay squandered that opportunity last year, if you keep getting a Bye in the postseason, the odds swing in your favor, eventually – unless your QB is a choke artist…

So, for that 1^st seed (which is the only BYE for the 2^nd year in a row), you should be rooting for the:

• Steelers (tonight @ Minnesota)
• Washington (v. Dallas)
• Buffalo (@ Tampa Bay)
• LA Rams (@ Arizona, on Monday night)

If that all occurs, the Packers will have the best record in the NFL, tied with Arizona at 10-3, but obviously everyone remembers beating Arizona, so the tiebreaker will be held by Green Bay.  The Packers would also clinch the division and they’d Control Their Destiny. 

Preview~ I recently heard the Packers, under LaFleur, are 0-2 coming off their BYE week (in the regular season), and 2-2 if you include the postseason.  I’m not sure what that means, but both regular season games, off their BYE, they were obliterated and didn’t seem like they should’ve been on the field:

1. 2019, week 12, blasted by San Francisco 37-8
2. 2020, week 6, smoked by Tampa Bay 38-10, after going up 10-0 and driving before a pick-6, then another (almost) pick-6 derailed that. 

The differences (and similarities) were the Packers eventually lost in the playoffs to each team, both in the NFC title game.  That won’t happen this year as the Bears aren’t making the playoffs.  Also, in the regular season, both of those games were on the road, and this is a night game at Lambeau, where LaFleur is badass.

Matchup~

	Chi-off	(rank)	vs.	GB-def	(rank)
Rush	125.1	8		102.5	8
Pass	173.8	32		219.2	9
Total	298.8	30		321.7	7
Pts	16.8	30		20.2	5
	Chi-def			GB-off
Rush	120.1	23		106.7	21
Pass	207.8	6		248.3	9
Total	327.9	9		355.0	15
Pts	23.9	22		23.6	15
T/O
Takeaways	11	T-28th		19	T-9th
Giveaways	19	T-23rd		10	T-2nd
Diff.	(8)	T-9th		9	T-4th

The stats/rankings show a relatively real look at the true matchup between these two franchises.  The Packers are arguably the best team in the NFL, while the Bears are about as bad as one can be with 4 wins.  They turn the ball over far too often to really compete, and don’t take it away enough to help their awful offense. 

As for the “True Strength,”:

• Packers: +41 (11^th)
• Bears: -86 (27^th)

Again, another telling ranking, and fairly accurate.  The Packers haven’t really blown anyone out, and have one blowout loss.  They have, however, won solidly a few times, with one of those games coming in Week 6 @ Chicago, winning 24-14.  Look for the Bears to pull out all of the stops as they must win out and get a bunch of help to make the playoffs…plus Nagy is will overthink everything, per usual and hand you games when you’re playing awfully. 

Bears 13
Packers 27

Season: 8-4
Overall: 77-40

Review~ a very interesting game.  So interesting that, even though I attended the game and had a good feel for it, still needed to rewatch it twice to get a better understanding for what happened.  It was a game where the Offense put up almost 400 yards (399) and 29 points (7 came from the Rasul Douglas pick-6) and the offense didn’t seem like it played well.  Adversely, the defense gave up 353 yards (5.8 yards/play) and 28 points, but seemed to play well.  That’s leading me to crunch some numbers in the latter portion of this blog.

Time of Possession – the Packers absolutely dominated this category and that does 2 major things:

1. Your defense stays fresh while your opponents’ D gets worn down
2. Your offense gets into (and keeps) a rhythm, while the other offense doesn’t and feels compelled to force things.

The sheer domination of it, 39:40 v 20:20 makes it nearly impossible to not win the game unless you score so quickly and make the other team drive down the field, consistently and settle for field goals.  The only game like this that comes to mind is the 2001 Divisional playoff loss @ St. Louis, where Green Bay won the total yards and time of possession, but Favre threw 6 interceptions…so there ya go.

Turnovers – as I always bring up, and most others too, the Packers won that battle 3:1.  Even then, the Packers’ offense only scored 6 points off the 2 they got, whereas Rasul Douglas got 6 of his own after the interception.  So, the team scored 12 points off 3 turnovers.  That seems like the minimum, which if that would’ve been the case in last year’s NFC title game, the Packers probably win. 

What’s not considered in the turnover margin, was McVay’s decision to go for it on 4^th & 1 from his own 29, early in the 2^nd quarter.  That turned into a free 3 points, which ended up making a fairly large difference in the game.  Points are king, and in the 1^st half, kicking field goals are usually the right play and vise versa. 

Rasul Douglas—has been nothing short of incredible since his pick-up.  He iced the Arizona game and came up with 4 big time plays vs. LAR.  It’s difficult to tell if he was solely at fault for the OBJ touchdown, but he did drop an easy interception which truly would’ve iced this game, when OBJ fell down.  Either way, he’s been incredible and the thought that if the Packers could get Jaire Alexander back, that would only help – however it’s dangerous to think that b/c often times the timing, comradery, overall flow of the defensive backfield runs amiss…but with that, please let’s get the best corner in football back, I believe it can only help. 

Kicking – I’m still not sure if it’s a timing issue with the entire unit or if it’s Crosby.  Again, either way, it must be fixed.  The first 2 kicks had a knuckling effect and barely went through.  The one miss began towards splitting the uprights, but pulled left and hit the upright.  Frustrating is quite the understatement. 

Offensive Line – while it held up fairly well against a healthy and stout defensive front, didn’t clear much room for running lanes and caved into pressure often.  A credit to Dillon and Rodgers for producing a maximum amount.  Aaron Jones didn’t have much of a chance to get rolling, however it’ll be nice for both Jones and the OL to get well-deserved rest to return to as close as 100%. 

Standings of Stats~

The points/possession, for both the offense and defense is interesting to look at.  I haven’t gone through all 32 teams, but this may explain a better feeling of the game vs. LA.  The offense, while scoring 30 points, didn’t seem to play well, adversely the Defense giving up 28 points, did.

	Points	Possessions	Pts./Possession
	Off.	Def.	Off.	Def.	Off.	Def.
at Saints	3	38	9	9	0.33	4.22
v Lions	35	17	10	9	3.50	1.89
at 49ers	30	28	10	10	3.00	2.80
v Steelers	27	17	11	11	2.45	1.55
at Bengals	25	22	13	12	1.92	1.83
at Bears	24	14	9	8	2.67	1.75
v Wash.	24	10	9	10	2.67	1.00
at Cardinals	24	21	10	8	2.40	2.63
at Chiefs	7	13	10	11	0.70	1.18
v Seahawks	17	0	9	10	1.89	0.00
at Vikings	31	34	9	9	3.44	3.78
v Rams	30	28	13	14	2.31	2.00
Total	277	242	122	121	27.3	24.62
Avg.	23.08	20.17	10.17	10.08	2.27	2.05

Giving up 2 points/possession in a game is just below the average for the season. When the Packers hold their opponent to that number, or below, their record is 7-1, with the lone loss come in Kansas City when Jordan Love got his first start and only scored 0.70 points/possession.  Even then, had Mason made his field goals and not muffed a punt inside our own 10, the Packers win that game. Interesting to say the least.  Maybe something to keep an eye on from here on out…

Lastly—something I stumbled into, the amount of $ being spent on players currently listed on IR (Injury Reserve) is incredible.  What’s more incredible is the production this team has gotten with that much talent injured/not-producing.  Take a look at the names on this list, and the amount…

Player	Pos.	Cap Hit	Cap %
Za’Darius Smith	OLB	$14,620,000	7.85%
Jaire Alexander	CB	$3,834,281	2.06%
Elgton Jenkins	LT/LG	$1,849,805	0.99%
Robert Tonyan	TE	$1,504,800	0.81%
Josh Myers	CB	$1,014,570	0.54%
Randy Ramsey	OLB	$780,000	0.42%
Whitney Mercilus	OLB	$716,667	0.38%
Kylin Hill	HB	$543,655	0.29%
Chauncey Rivers	OLB	$469,445	0.25%
Total		$25,333,223	13.59%

*This is pulled from https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/

Again, this doesn’t take into account starting All-World LT David Bakhtiari whom hasn’t suited up since the turn of the year (Jan 1, 2021).  However, after looking through all 32 teams (no I did not chart them), the Packers seem to be right in the middle of all of them.  There are a handful of teams with a far higher percentage of their cap on IR (Ravens, Panthers, Titans, for example) – it’s still a testament to how the Packers are as injured as any team in the league, yet still as good (or better) than all of the teams.

Review~ Cousins beat us…just a few milliseconds late on a couple of plays made the difference.  The roughing call on Keke that negated Savage’s first INT, then Savage’s “dropped” INT, which could’ve been his 2^nd, added 10 points to the Vikings’ ledger. 

Missed Kick.  It’s growing more and more apparent that this is an issue with the long snapper and/or holder, however the issue must be fixed.  Crosby was perfect last season and began 9/9 this year prior to the Packers making the switch from Hunter Bradley to Steven Wirtel (#46).   Either way, this must be figured out, regardless of How.

Penalties – 8 accepted for 92 yards.  That’s a killer, essentially adding that total to the Vikings.  As mentioned above, the Keke roughing added 7 points to Minnesota which could’ve been a 10–14-point swing right there.

Time of Possession – Minnesota won the TOP 31:01 to 28:59. Yes, the Defense could’ve/should’ve come up with the stop on that last Minnesota drive, and damn near did, but they didn’t and the Packers lost.

While the loss dropped Green Bay to the 2-seed and bumped Minnesota up to the 6^th seed, I still don’t feel any worse/better after this game, as the injuries really affected the Packers.  Assuming some of these guys will return before season’s end, that should give confidence to Packer nation that this team is as talented as any team in the NFL. 

Matchup~

	LAR-off	(rank)	vs.	GB-def	(rank)
Rush	97.9	24		105.6	12
Pass	289.3	4		213.2	7
Total	387.2	6		318.8	7
Pts	27.1	7		19.5	5
	LAR-def			GB-off
Rush	105.2	11		108.0	20
Pass	241.7	16		243.0	13
Total	346.9	12		351.0	18
Pts	22.7	15		22.5	17
T/O
Takeaways	14	T-12th		16	T-8th
Giveaways	11	T-7th		9	T-3rd
Diff.	3	T-9th		7	4th

Preview~ This seems to be about an even a matchup as there’s been this year in the NFL, at least on paper.  I believe the Packers opened as 1.5-point favorites, and as of Friday afternoon, the Rams are 0.5-point favorites.  Keep in mind the Packers are making up for their fortunate health situation in 2019 & 2020 with 16 guys on the IR (Injured Reserve and/or Injury Report), which resembles 2010.

This is a strength vs. strength (Rams’ Offense vs. Green Bay’s Defense), especially the passing game.  The Packers struggled last week, but aside from Kenny Clark absolutely humiliating every center the Vikings threw out there, Green Bay still couldn’t generate enough of a pass rush (2 sacks on 5 QB hits) to help the decimated secondary. 

This may be it for the margin for error when it comes to obtaining the 1-seed, then again, this has been a screwy a year as ever, and once a team looks great, they get bested by a $hit team (i.e., see Buffalo losing to Jacksonville).  If Green Bay can get to their BYE at 9-3, with the idea that potentially Aaron Jones, Rashan Gary (whom may play Sunday vs LA), Za’Darius Smith, and possibly Jaire Alexander could return before the postseason could really inject life (and a boat load of talent and production) into an already strong team.

This should feel like a playoff game – even as it’s a rematch of the divisional round game last year – Aaron Donald will be 100% this game, the Packers’ OL will be far from it.  Could the difference be Aaron Donald (#99), Von Miller (#40), and Leonard Floyd (#54) vs. a really banged up Packers front-5?  Hopefully Rodgers and LaFleur can get crafty enough to get running lanes and the screen-game going to alleviate pressure and hold the ball.  The weather could play a factor for the speedy Rams, so let’s see what these guys come up with, shall we?

Rams 27
Packers 28

Season: 7-4
Overall: 76-40

Review~ the statement was made and verified in these last 2 games.  The Packers’ defense is good; possibly great.  While Rodgers was off upon his return, he did plenty of things that deserved the victory.  He missed on 2 passes that didn’t come back to kill the team:

1. The interception in the end zone to Jamal Adams on 3^rd & 6 when it was only a 3-0 game, coming off the Kevin King interception.
2. The pass to Aaron Jones 2 plays prior that could’ve gone for a touchdown. 

Nitpicky, but one decision and another throw that Rodgers has in muscle-memory, it seems.

LaFleur stuck with the ground game, and it paid off, again.  Aaron Jones had 11 touches for 86 yards.  A.J. Dillon had his 2^nd best pro game with 23 touches, 128 yards, and 2 TDs.  Patrick Taylor chipped in with 2 rushes for 7 yards in mop up time/elevation from the Jones injury.

The HBs touched it 51.4% of the snaps accounting for 221 yards (56.2%) and 2 TDs.  That’s some great balance and only opens up the pass game. 

One looming issue is the O-line.  The Packers could really benefit from getting Bakhtiari and rookie Center, Josh Myers back from injury.  However, the issue with Bakhtiari is he tore his ACL on New Year’s Day, and while that’s typically a 12-month injury, it takes an additional season for a player to return to (or flirt with) 100%.  The rumor is 69 suffered a “setback” in practice this week.  He’s too good of a player, in the latter portion of his prime years to be messing around with that – yes I know the Packers have as good a shot at winning as ever, it doesn’t mean you rush a player of this caliber back, especially when 69’s window could be open for another 4 years.

All in all, a very solid W…one that should have you excited as we trend towards the best part of the football season.

Preview~ should Green Bay prevail, the division race (not the goal, but a decent check mark) is all but over.  The Packers would hold a 5.5+ (the “+” is due to the tiebreaker) game lead over Minnesota with 6 to play.  While many say “This Vikings team is better than their record,” I’m a fairly big believer in the Bill Parcells motto “You are what your record says you are.”  Do the Vikes have talent?  Sure.  Are they good?  They can be, sometimes.  Is this their Super Bowl since they can’t win one?  Yes.

Green Bay will take Minnesota’s best shot come Noon Sunday.  In addition to the divisional race (it’s over), the Vikings are sitting in the 8^th spot (remember the NFL now takes 7 teams from each conference), so they’re fighting like hell for that last spot. 

Matchup~

	GB	(rank)	vs.	Min	(rank)
Off Rush	109.3	19th		122.4	9th
Off Pass	230.1	18th		262.2	9th
Off Total	339.4	20th		384.7	7th
Off Pts	21.7	19th		24.6	14th
Def Rush	107.2	14th		130.6	28th
Def Pass	202.7	3rd		238.6	14th
Def Total	309.9	3rd		369.1	23rd
Def Pts	18.0	3rd		23.4	16th
T/O
Takeaways	16	6th		12	T-14th
Giveaways	9	T-5th		6	T-1st
Diff.	7	4th		6	T-5th

Keep in mind, last week Seattle entered 1^st in giveaways, with 4.  Green Bay took it away twice, ultimately should’ve been thrice (Amos’ dropped 2^nd INT).  I believe that’s a testament to Joe Barry.  The coaching staff is essentially the same, the personnel is very similar with the one major exception being De’Vondre Campbell (ILB #59).  He’s not only had an outstanding season, the team has tackled, covered, and been in position far better than any year since 2010.  I believe the major factor is Joe Barry’s ability to deliver the message and the defense (especially the secondary of Amos & Savage) to relay it to the rest of the D. 

^^As you can see, Minnesota has a top-10 offense, in yards, but struggles converting it to points.  Their defense is average across the board, except they can’t stop the run, so “Hello A.J. Dillon.”

Also, what’s not listed in the matchup stats is Green Bay ranks 4^th in Time of Possession, averaging 32:07 minutes (not including any OT time).  That’s a monstrous help to the defense…they’re not on the field!

Also, we’re getting to the point in the season where Point-Differential matters.  It’s indicative of a team’s True Strength. The Packers currently sit 10^th in the NFL with a +36, while Minnesota (under .500 mind you) is 17^th at +10.  You may want to “throw out” week 1 as this Packers team isn’t that team.  While true, it’s incorporated for a reason, mainly because even good teams have No Shows from time to time. 

Year	Champ	Pt. Diff. Rank
2020	Buccaneers	4th
2019	Chiefs	4th
2018	Patriots	5th
2017	Eagles	2nd
2016	Patriots	1st
2015	Broncos	10th
2014	Patriots	1st
2013	Seahawks	2nd
2012	Ravens	11th
2011	Giants	19th (-6??)
2010	Packers	2nd

So, essentially outside of the random 2011 Giants team, the Super Bowl champ averages 5^th – 6^th (including that Giants ranking) in this category.  Remove them, and its 4^th.  My belief is by season’s end, the Packers will be in that top-4 ranking again (last season finished 3^rd). 

The playmakers are well-known: #18 Justin Jefferson; #19 Adam Thielen; #33 Dalvin Cook.  Stopping Cook is key – he tore apart Green Bay last year in Lambeau (226 yards, 4 TDs, on 32 touches) and that was the difference.  I believe it’ll be a bit of a lower scoring game again…

Packers 24
Vikings 20

Season: 7-3
Overall: 76-39

Review~ that was the best performance by a Green Bay defense in quite some time.  However, there’s an asterisk next to it due to Kansas City having a whole bunch of things wrong with them…still held their 1^st potential scoring offense to 13 points with a boat load of special team errors. 

LaFleur got away from the run, again – I don’t mean to make it sound like this often happens, but often enough – recording only 25 rush attempts of the 60 total snaps (41.67%).  Of the 301 total yards, 122 came from rushing (40.5%).

• Aaron Jones: 12 carries, 2 targets, 53 total yards
• A.J. Dillon: 8 carries, 4 targets, 90 total yards

The Packers won the time of possession, hell they dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and controlled the game.  While I don’t like absolutes, Almost Always the QB decides the outcome of the game.  This was one of those games (like 95-99% of all games) dictated by the QB.  The Packers needed Love to come up with 1-2 more plays…meanwhile Mahomes was off (both has been all year and credit to Green Bay’s defense), yet made a game-clinching throw in crunch time. 

Even with Love’s below-average debut, had the Packers:

1. Not had a mis-hold, pull-hooked FG
2. Not had a blocked FG
3. Muffed a punt
4. Dropped INT (King) before half

…those 4 plays alone would’ve swung the game from a 7-13 loss into a 13-7 Packers win.  Now, that’s easy to say, but the game would’ve gone/flowed much different if any one of those things happened differently.  The promising thing (while there’s no Moral Victories, there are things to take away and notice from our perspective) is the Packers went into one of the toughest environments, against an uber-talented team (two-time AFC’s Super Bowl representative) in Desperation, and without a comedy of special team errors, would’ve come out victorious with an inexperienced backup QB and a slew of injuries.

*I may write a separate blog during the BYE week discussing Jordan Love’s “performance,” but I haven’t seen enough of him to decide whether he’s “good” or otherwise. *

Do I think Love is the future?  I hope so, but I know that I don’t know, yet…

Preview~ Seattle is an interesting team coming in.  They’re coming off a BYE, having won their first home game of the season in their last game (W 31-7 vs. Jacksonville on Oct. 31^st). 

2021	Sea D.	vs.	GB O.
Rush	127.6 (25)		109.7 (18)
Pass	273.9 (29)		223.8 (23)
Total	401.5 (31)		333.4 (22)
Points	21.1 (9)		22.1 (20)
	Sea O.	vs.	GB D.
Rush	102.9 (21)		110.8 (17)
Pass	211.1 (27)		210.4 (7)
Total	314.0 (29)		321.2 (5)
Points	22.6 (19)		20.0 (6)

The Packers have the better rank in 7 of the 8 categories, but Seattle seems to be the epitome of Bend but Don’t Break defense.  They have awful yard rankings, yet are the 9^th scoring D, giving up 21.1 points/game.

	TURNOVERS
	Takeaways	Giveaways	Diff.
Sea	8 (T-23rd)	4 (1st)	4 (T-8th)
GB	14 (T-6th)	8 (T-5th)	6 (T-4th)

Seattle also doesn’t turn the ball over, giving it away only 4 times all season.  The Packers failed to generate a turnover for the first time since week 1.  It seems Kenny Clark and Erik Stokes weren’t injured too severely, however were listed as “Questionable” on Friday during and after practice.  It would greatly help to have both back in the lineup, especially to combat the return of Russell Wilson – who will be looking for his 1^st victory in Lambeau Field in his career. 

Another Equalizer could be Red Zone efficiency, both on offense and defense. 

RED ZONE
	Off. (%/Rank)	Def. (%/Rank)
Sea	75% (2)	48.4% (5)
GB	55.9% (T-20)	76% (31)

Seattle absolutely OWNS this department as the Packers are terrible on both accounts, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  This is yet another matchup vs. a capable QB on a desperate team, however this time Green Bay will likely have Rodgers back under center and homefield advantage. 

Should the Packers use the ground game like they did in Arizona, and a few other times this season, it should decimate the bad (by yardage rank, but their Red Zone D is very good, hence the 9^th scoring D rank) Seattle defense, Green Bay should come out victorious.

Seahawks 21
Packers 31

Season: 6-3
Overall: 75-39