Wild Card Recap: Bears 31; Packers 27

After sitting on it for a few days, it’s a bit easier to digest, or at least digest at all. After a perfect start to the game the finish was inevitable. Green Bay jumped out to a 21-3 lead after their first 3 possessions of the game, and were driving to add additional points on the board before halftime. Kicker, Brandon McManus, missed a 55-yarder (would’ve been nice, and did make the first attempt before Chicago called a timeout to “ice” him), that ultimately played a huge part in the game. The Packers could’ve had a 24-3 lead coming out of half, with all of the momentum and getting the ball to start the 3^rd quarter. From that point on, the offensive line, the one area which I said would eventually cost this team their season, reared its ugly head. After giving Jordan Love ample time to throw and the Green Bay ground game running lanes to be efficient, nothing worked. Love was pressured on essentially every drop back in the 2^nd half and the timing and rhythm was in disarray for the remainder of the game.

Just like 2014 NFC title game in Seattle, there were a bevy of things that had to go wrong in order for Green Bay to lose this game. Before we go blaming Matt LaFleur, Jordan Love, or the defense, keep in mind NONE of those people were here when that occurred. I’m not deflecting blame, or placing it elsewhere, just pointing out that there was a different President, General Manager, Head Coach, and Quarterback in that game vs. this game. Special Teams, mainly McManus, cost Green Bay 7 points, directly. There’s no side-stepping that. However, the major issue is the offense couldn’t do anything for all but 2 drives in the 2^nd half. The o-line got used and abused and it disrupted the entire operation, as it usually does. The defense was then on the field a ton, without getting much break in between, against an inaccurate, but dangerous passer.  Couple that with lesser and lesser pass rush and a secondary that consists of cornerbacks that can’t hold up in long coverage, it spells disaster. This was as much a team loss that we’ve had since that 2014 NFC Championship Game, and it was deserved. Even in the “gotta have it” moments, on the last drive, Love was on his game, but it didn’t matter. He hit rookie Matthew Golden on an out route on 4^th & 7 to gain a first down AND get out of bounds. Then hit Jayden Reed, perfectly, in stride for a big gain to Chicago’s 18-yard line, that bounced off his hands. Had he caught it, he may actually score, but at least gets inside the 20, out of bounds, and the Packers are set up with a 1^st & 10 from the 15 with 0:40 left and a timeout. If you’re Chicago, you can see the ending already. Then a few plays later there’s maybe Jordan Love’s best throw of his career, hitting a back foot toss, over the middle, above the linebackers and below the safeties to a streaking Christian Watson that hits him in stride in his hands at the Chi 3-yard line. If he catches it, he gets knocked into the end zone and the Packers win the game. In years past, it’s been Rodgers keying in on 1 WR or not seeing wide open guys (kind of like Brett too in the 2007 NFC Championship Game) and either that WR letting the team down or the QB missing the throw or read. In this situation, it wasn’t just 1 guy, it was multiple and it kept happening throughout the 2^nd half. Also, Love missed some guys earlier in the 2^nd half which stalled drives. He also didn’t take off and run on a 3^rd & 2 when he easily would’ve gained the 1^st down, but couple that with everyone else’s errors, and you get a game that should’ve been over after Golden’s first career TD, turned into what it was, an epic disaster.

Season Review: Another Epic Failure; Waste of a Season

This team, all season, has found ways to lose games with substantial leads, and I don’t think there’s a clear-cut answer as to why…or at least not a singular “who’s to blame?” Against Chicago alone this season, the Packers have held leads of 14-3, 16-6, and 21-3, finding a way to lose 2 of those games, and all of them either eventually being tied or in the case of last Saturday, the lead evaporating. There are other games throughout this season that resembled this, not just the Bear games. Week 3 in Cleveland, the Packers were up 10-0. The following week in Dallas, they were up 13-0 with an ensuing extra point to make it 14-0, but was blocked and a 3-point swing in an eventual tie game. The Packers were up 23-14 in Denver with a kill shot play on the way and it all went south from there. While injuries are an excuse, the Packers lost their closer, Micah Parsons. Once he went down in that Denver game, the defense evolved into a bottom ½ defense in the NFL. Their scheme opening games has been great, just evidenced by the Chicago games without Micah, but when in crunch time, they didn’t have that difference-maker or play-maker to make the 1 play to close the game out. There’s a reason Green Bay finished 0-5 in games without Micah (lost him during the 3^rd quarter of the Denver game and couldn’t close it out). Now, had he been healthy does Green Bay win all of their remaining games? Not likely vs. Baltimore, but even then, had they won in Denver, then Chicago the following week, they have a lot to play for in Minnesota and likely get the 2-seed and finish the regular season 12-4-1. That would’ve set up a tough playoff matchup against Los Angeles and the OL issues still would’ve remained…likely resulting in a home playoff loss, but the overall sentiment of the team is a bit different, maybe.

To state it again, prior to the Micah Parsons trade, the goal of this team was to win the Super Bowl, which was only amplified, and believed by more national pundits, once Green Bay acquired him. While injuries are real and a reasonable excuse, it doesn’t exclude these collapses because those “reserves” played well enough to build you those leads – it’s more complicated than 1 phrase, but it’s not: Mental Toughness. This team hasn’t had mental toughness for years, maybe since the 2010 season, and we can’t pinpoint as to why. While it’s nice to say the words, “Our expectations are Super Bowl titles,” the actions dictate otherwise. Something to the effect of “Let’s get to the playoffs and see what happens.” Which is a fan observation, “Get in and get hot.” Yes, it’s becoming increasingly more difficult to build the strongest team in the league, and have that be the case annually, it should still be the standard and to build a team that could/should be the favorite in a 3-4 year window, but the leadership must match that sentiment, or exceed it for it to be actuality.

Moving Forward – Now What?

It’ll be on the 3 men pictured above to find the right solution. First, with team President, Ed Policy. It’s believed he’ll remove the siloed structure of the Head Coach and General Manager reporting directly to the President and have a more traditional org chart of the Head Coach reporting to the General Manager, and then the GM reporting to the President…keep the football people streamlined reporting into the business persons. With 1 year left on Matt LaFleur’s contract, and Ed Policy voicing his opinion about “not having a lame-duck” situation, meaning Green Bay will either extend or fire LaFleur. There are epic pros and cons to each scenario, and no right (or wrong) decision. Having covered the collapses of decades past, LaFleur is the head man and ultimately responsible for the product on the field. His postseason record with Love at the helm is 1-3, and while jumping ahead of expectations in year 1, it’s been lack-luster (regardless of reasoning) since. Wild Card exits are Wild Card exits. Not having won the division since the 2021 season and seeing everyone else in the division win it since is a problem, especially given that this team’s talent doesn’t seem to be the issue. Notwithstanding of the direction Green Bay decides to go, major changes MUST occur.

Assuming Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, leaves for a Head Coaching job, hiring another DC must be a home run. Hafley has been good, but ultimately very similar to Joe Barry and Mike Pettine in their final years (his predecessors), and without Micah, it was VERY similar.

This leads us to two questions, even if Green Bay decide on Matt LaFleur;

1. What WILL the Packers do?
2. What SHOULD the Packers do?

While opinion-based questions, no one will know what’s right or wrong until the following season. There’s a statement that’s been tossed around of “How can you believe in a coach after a loss like that?” Former Packers full back, and fan favorite, John Kuhn, had a solid response… “Players don’t lose faith in a Head Coach after a game like that. They lose faith in other players.” That makes a ton of sense, but it’s the same result, whether it’s the player or coaches, there’s failure. Maybe it’s the General Manager assembling the wrong group of individuals with the proper make-up to close these games out. Maybe it’s the overall culture of the organization, from the President on down… Hell, look at the Bears, from ownership to their Head Coach, down to the players, they all “hate” Green Bay. We don’t have that mindset at 1265 Lombardi Ave., we’re “above that.” While that’s all well and good, the Bears won and it seemed like their will to win that game was far higher than Green Bay’s. Going back to what I covered earlier, saying your goal is to win Super Bowls is great and all, but the actions dictate otherwise.

Prediction?

Not that anyone cares my opinion on what the Packers do, I think they’ll keep LaFleur, replace their offensive coordinator, and replace their special teams coordinator. As for personnel decisions, there are quite a few options across the team that they could go, but I trust Russ Ball and Brian Gutekunst to make that all work out as the talent on the field hasn’t been the driving issue for years now. If Hafley leaves, of course they’ll hire another defensive coordinator, and they must nail ALL of these new hires if there’s going to be actual change.

Season Prediction Accuracy: 10-8
Overall Prediction Accuracy: 117-77

Chicago – After starting the season 0-2, both against the division, the Bears rattled off wins in 9 of their next 10 games. They then traded 1^st place in the NFC North with Green Bay for consecutive weeks, and had an outside chance to get the 1-seed, but Seattle took care of business against San Francisco in Week 17 locking up the Bye in the Wild Card round for the NFC side.

The Bears finished the season with the 6^th overall offense and 9^th in scoring. Chicago was buoyed by their amazing turnover differential (more on that later), leading the NFL in takeaways as well as giving it away, thus leading the league in turnover differential. The turnovers are whey Chicago won the division, let alone had a winning record. Their defense is bottom-5 in essentially every category, other than taking the ball away – which most can be argued is the opposition “giving” them the ball. The Bears defense should be a chief concern of theirs and will be the reason their season comes to an end, whether it’s this weekend or next. They’re 29^th in total defense and 23^rd in scoring – meaning their offense must be on point, or their D needs to generate at least 2 turnovers, just to be “IN” the game.

Chicago may be the most reliant team in playoff history on turnovers…they’re 2-6 in games where they don’t get at least 2 turnovers. Peter Bukowski pointed this out, even though I covered this heading into the first matchup back on Dec. 7^th. The Bears’ two wins in games they didn’t get 2 turnovers were against the Giants, where starting QB, Jaxon Dart, exited with a concussion on the play where he fumbled, the Giants’ lone turnover. The other win? Yep, against Green Bay when Jordan Love exited the game. Not to bring up painful memories, but while Green Bay only had 1 turnover (Jacobs’ fumble inside the 5-yard line), the muffed onside kick acts as a turnover, so essentially 2, bringing their record to 1-6. The lone win had Dart not been concussed, they lose that game too, kind of like the Packer game with Love…lotta fortunate bounces for this Bears team, all season.

Chicago is so reliant on turnovers that since the 2014 season, teams that win the turnover differential in the NFL have an avg. defensive ranking of 9^th in scoring. Chicago is the 3^rd team since 2014 to lead the NFL in turnover differential and have a scoring defense rank 23^rd or worse. The other teams? 2020 Tennessee and 2023 New York Giants. The Titans in 2020 lost in the Wild Card round whereas the Giants didn’t even make the playoffs in 2023. Goes to show you that while turnovers equalize a game, over the course of a season, if your defense isn’t good, turnovers help, but then again when facing the best competition, you lose.

Green Bay – the Packers have been just the opposite of the Bears in the sense of “whatever can go wrong, eventually does.” The Packers started off as well as any team in the NFL, going 2-0 after beating two of the highest thought of teams in the NFC entering into the campaign; Detroit & Washington. Once the special teams and injuries inevitably reared their ugly heads, the season flipped on its head. That culminated, at least we thought, in Denver with 12:55 left in the 3^rd quarter when Love took a kill shot, already leading 23-14, and it was intercepted by Patrick Surtain. On the play both Christian Watson and Zach Tom were injured. That killed the offense as there was no one to stretch the defense and the best pass-rush in the NFL would finally make headway. A drive or two later, Green Bay lost Micah Parsons for the season on a torn ACL – the season seemed like it ended right there. Just when we thought that was as bad as it was going to get, the special teams woke up and make 1 final appearance by snatching defeat from victory at Solider Field a week later. Not many teams enter the playoffs on a 4-game losing streak, mainly because teams that lose 4 in a row are flat out not good and don’t make the playoffs. However, this sets up yet another amazing opportunity for Green Bay to accomplish something special…again, beating Chicago is great and all, but should they lose to Seattle the following week, the season will be a disappointment.

Matchup Matrix

For the 3^rd time in 35 days the Packers will play the Bears in the 2^nd-most meaningful game between these two franchises in their history. On paper this looks like an even matchup, at least when Chicago has the ball. They’re 6^th in total offense and 9^th in scoring where as the Packers’ defense ranks 12^th and 11^th, respectfully. Keep in mind Green Bay’s defense has been faltering since Micah Parsons went on IR. For some context, here’s the disparity between having Micah vs. without:

On a per game basis, opponents are averaging an addition 6 plays, 106 yards, and the big one…9.3 more points per game against the Packers than when Micah Parsons was healthy, that is substantial. Had Green Bay finished the season giving up an average of 19.3 points per game, that would have tied them for 6^th in the NFL with Kansas City. The pace they’re on, giving up 28.6 points/game now would put them at 28^th in the league, in between Tennessee and Arizona, in terms of scoring defense…whoof.

The good news, is that the Packers didn’t have Micah Parsons in their last matchup against these Bears, and the defense was balling! Until it wasn’t. For 58:01, the Packers defense gave up 48 plays for 283 total yards (132 rushing, 151 passing) and just 9 points. That’s a dominant performance against a top-10 offense, on the road, in prime time. There’s a reason why Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, said, “We’re not done, I’ll see you next week.” It was his gameplan that stifled Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams, and the Bears offense for 97% of that game. There’s no reason to think the Packers can’t replicate that performance again. The big help for the defense came from the Packers’ offense. They controlled the time of possession, the ended the game with a 38:57 to 26:13 advantage, but before the onside kick, their advantage was 34:43 to 23:47 – meaning the Packers defense was playing almost a full quarter less of football than the Bears’. Now with a healthy Josh Jacobs and offensive line, there’s reason to believe Green Bay can mimic a similar output, but bear in mind (pun intended), many of those runs that elongated drives came on the legs of Malik Willis. On the flip side, Green Bay struggled in the red zone, going 0-for-5, that won’t happen again if Love is quarterbacking the entire game. Which has been the Packers’ bugaboo during this losing streak.

Is There A Mismatch?

When Love and the Packers have the ball, they’ll get to face the 29^th defense in the NFL…in the previous 2 matchups, Green Bay’s offense had a total of 16 “real” possessions and only punted 3 times. The issue, that we mentioned, is the Red Zone efficiency. The Packers have combined to score 1 touchdown in their 6 red zone trips across these two games. This is the one statistic that’s worth keeping an eye on for the entirety of this game.

As for moving the ball, the Packers have had no issue going up and down the field against this defense. Assuming Green Bay gets the ball 8 times, they should have 4-6 red zone trips, the goal will be to convert 3 of those trips to touchdowns. If it’s 6 trips, better make it four. The reason why you should believe Love won’t have an issue moving the ball is that in the two games against the Bears, LaFleur’s offense has amassed 721 total yards, an average of 361/game, which is 50 yards over their season average. The mismatch in this game is Green Bay’s offense vs. Chicago’s defense.

Major Concern?

The chief concern, other than turnovers and Red Zone Offense (yeah, that’s a lot), if hoping that Ben Johnson’s ego gets in the way. If Chicago commits to the run, the Packers’ defense may be in some trouble. As we’ve seen all season, the Packer defense eventually wears down and struggles to stop the ground game, ranking 15^th in the NFL against it. The best antidote to counteract it? Possess the ball – like mentioned above – quick scores are great, but long, methodical TD drives are best.

1. Don’t give the ball away
2. Score TDs in the Red Zone (50+%)
3. Control the Time of Possession

Prediction Time

Season: 10-7
Overall: 117-76

Rest v. Rust

The Packers started as many 2^nd stringers as they could, and many played well. The offensive line did some nice things, mainly Jordan Morgan – starting at his natural position, LT – but with Clayton Tune at QB, there was no chance to get any production. The ground game was “good,” overall, rushing for 128 yards on 35 attempts. This includes Emanuel Wilson’s boneheaded -19-yard rush; had he just taken the loss of 2 yards that would’ve made the rush numbers look much better…taking it to 145 yards, which is a key number, 140+ rush yards.

What we didn’t get was a good look at rookie WR Matthew Golden. Tune hasn’t been able to throw a forward pass, so that’s hurting everyone’s development, or at least cost a great opportunity to see more prospects. It was clear the goal was to get out of this game as healthy as possible to prepare for the playoffs instead of getting any momentum or rhythm and timing. Always a tough decision, but we’ll find out.

Did Anyone Stand Out?

The kids on defense played well, mainly Barryn Sorrell (#99, pictured above) had one of the 2 Packer sacks in the game. He also had 8 tackles and has earned more playing time, in my opinion, we’ll see if that comes true on Saturday night. The major bright spot, and most-hyped, was Collin Oliver (#45), who produced more in his 1^st NFL game than Rashan Gary has in the previous 10 games – earning more playing time moving forward.

The other bright spot was newcomer, Trevon Diggs (#28). According to Pro Football Focus, Diggs played 32 snaps (17 in pass coverage, 15 in run defense), and he was targeted once. Diggs didn’t give up a catch on 1 targeted pass attempt and had 2 tackles in the run game. If he can get going that could boost the Packers’ defense in the most-needed area on this team, the defensive backfield.

Season: 9-7-1; 2nd in NFC North; 7th Seed in NFC

With the Regular Season finished, Green Bay ended the season with a 9-7-1 record, which was the 13^th-best record in the NFL…appropriately aligns with their scoring differential, which too ranked 13^th in the league at +31. It’s frustrating to think of how good this team/season would’ve been had they stayed healthy and learned earlier how not to beat themselves – but the NFL has a way of equalizing many teams every year. All in all, and as always, the Packers’ success will be determined by what they accomplish in the postseason. Keep in mind the goal upon acquiring Micah Parsons was to win the Super Bowl, hell, that was the goal BEFORE trading for Micah.

Is LaFleur Coaching For His Job?

Elaborating on expectations, there’s a chance LaFleur’s future depends on the Packers’ performance this month. While having one of the best starts to a coaching career, MLF has seen his team go just 30-23-1 (including playoffs) since Jordan Love took over at QB. The talent on this roster had fans believing (me included) more should’ve been accomplished. While I don’t think the Packers will part ways with him, regardless of the outcome of Saturday night, I believe anything short of a Conf. Title appearance will have his seat be one of, if not, the hottest in the entire NFL entering next season.

A Meaningless Game that May Influence Everything

With Green Bay locked in as the 7^th seed in the NFC Playoff Picture there’s nothing to gain by winning – other than heading into the postseason with a win instead of a 4-game losing streak. Having good vibes could work wonders for this Packers team as it’s been nothing but disaster after disaster since Patrick Surtain intercepted Jordan Love early in the 3^rd quarter of Week 15. It will have been 4 weeks to the day since Green Bay last walked off the field victorious; a 28-21 win over Chicago on December 7^th. That was their 4^th win in a row and things seemed to be on track with Green Bay looking like one of, if not, the top teams in the NFL – how cruel and quickly things change in the NFL.

Green Bay will be starting Clayton Tune at QB this Sunday against Minnesota to give Love & Willis as much time as possible to be 100% healthy and not risk further injury heading into their wild card matchup, but I fear the rhythm and timing will suffer (along with the confidence and vibes of the team) won’t be where they need to be to perform at a high-level, considering Love will not have taken meaningful snaps in a 3-week timespan. It’s a Catch-22 scenario for the Packers; either risk injury to their starting QB and other star players in a meaningless game or have them rusty as can be likely coming into a playoff game either at Chicago or Philadelphia riding a 4-game losing streak.

Big Opportunity For Everyone

Green Bay claimed ex-Cowboys cornerback, Trevon Diggs, off waivers on New Year’s Eve to help add depth to their defensive backfield. The Packers have had nothing but issues in their secondary since Micah Parsons went down with his ACL injury and the pass rush has been non-existent, thus leaving their corners to cover receivers longer, resulting in: Denver and Bo Nix torching them in the 2^nd half of Week 15; Caleb Williams lighting them up in the last 2 minutes and overtime of Week 16; Tyler Huntley having no issue carving GB’s D up all game last week. Diggs is having an awful year, allowing 16 completions on 20 targets for 286 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against him in 2025. There was a time when Diggs was one of the best corners in the NFL, back in 2021 he played in 16 games having 11 interceptions with 2 pick-6’s in just that season. That’s a good career for most cornerbacks. Since then, his production has dropped off and he’s been a liability for Dallas these past four seasons ultimately getting cut this week allowing him to join a playoff team. He’s only played in 8 games this season and I listed the stats against him above…however, he’s still in prime age (27 years old) and has plenty of ability to help the Packers especially given that he’s an able-bodied corner to give this team depth in one of the areas that’s a weakness of this roster. This is a great opportunity for him to right his career direction and earn a long-term contract should he and the Packers make a great showing in January.

This is also an opening for quite a few other players on this roster as it’s a “prove-it” game in some manner. Whether that’s McKinney (who’s played well all year) showing he can catch an interception, Rashan Gary actually pressuring the QB and not being owned in the run game by a 198-pound wide receiver, anyone on the defensive line holding their own against the run, or the offensive line gaining confidence and continuity by showing who wants a starting job next year…there’s plenty to keep an eye on, for us fans and the coaches. This is also a great opportunity for Matt LaFleur to showcase his 1^st round rookie WR, Matthew Golden, by getting him his first career touchdown and putting new “looks” on tape for the Bears or Eagles to gameplan around for next week. It’s worth noting that Matthew Golden began his college career at the University of Houston and his QB at Houston, his freshman year (2022) was Clayton Tune. Golden put up 38 receptions for 584 yards and 7 touchdowns with Tune at QB, so at least there’s some familiarity. As for Tune, his college career was actually pretty good, having thrown for 40 touchdowns his Senior season at Houston (Golden’s freshman year) in 2022 along with 4,074 yards and only 10 interceptions. He’s physically able to throw the football, which is not what we saw when he entered the Baltimore game last week when Malik Willis exited with a shoulder injury.

Matchup Matrix

The Packers can reverse their divisional record from a season ago by beating Minnesota on Sunday, which would put their division record at 5-1, with their lone loss coming in the Chicago-debacle. This is a completely different Vikings team than a year ago, where they were playing this week for the #1 overall seed in the NFC, but they’ve been eliminated for a month now and it’s all due to their QB situation. The Vikings decided to let QB Sam Darnold walk – eventually signing with Seattle where he’s again playing for the #1 overall seed in the NFC playoffs…mmm makes ya think. Minnesota decided to showcase their 1^st round pick from 2024, JJ McCarthy, who’s been absolutely terrible this season and it’s shown in every statistical category. The Vikings, with offensive mastermind Head Coach, Kevin O’Connell, dropped from 12^th in yards and 9^th in scoring in 2024 to 29^th and 26^th, respectively. Yet another great example for the Packers beat up defense to regain confidence and play with attitude by stifling the Purple team.

The Packers offense will have their challenges as well, facing a Brian Flores-led defense that ranks in the top-10 against the pass (3^rd), total defense (6^th), and scoring (T-9^th). Points were already hard to come by, given that a desperate Lions team (playing for their playoff lives on Christmas Day) scored only 10 points against the already eliminated Vikings, the Packers will have their 3^rd string QB starting and they showed nothing in the short amount of time he was on the field last week. This could easily be a low-scoring, tight ball game, which is what Jeff Hafley’s crew needs to have and find a way to come through – there should be ample occasions for them to generate turnovers and get right for a playoff push.

Prediction Time

Season: 9-7
Overall: 116-76