Big Picture

With Detroit’s hilarious loss on Christmas Day to the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers clinched a playoff spot. Meaning all 7 of the NFC playoff spots are filled, but the seeding still needs sorting. The Packers can range from the 7^th seed all the way to the 2^nd seed, just as could Chicago. The Eagles are locked in at either the 2^nd or 3^rd seed. Let’s take a look at the scenarios that could affect the Packers:

• 2^nd seed
  • Green Bay would need to win their final 2 games (v Bal & @ Min)
  • Chicago would need to lose their final 2 games (@ San Fran & v Det)
  • Philadelphia would need to lose one of their 2 games (@ Buf & v Was)
• 3^rd seed
  • Green Bay would need to win their final 2 and Chicago to lose their remaining 2 games
  • Philadelphia would need to win their final 2

Both scenarios are plausible considering Green Bay may be favored in both of their remaining games and Chicago is the underdog in their 2 just as the Bills are favored over Philadelphia in their matchup on Sunday. The odds makers are thinking the Packers could get the 2 seed. This would be huge because it would guarantee a minimum of 2 home playoff games in the playoffs (assuming Green Bay would win their wild card round game, which would be against Chicago), with possibly a 3^rd home playoff game should the 1 seed lose in the divisional round.

Can Green Bay Fix their Issues?

The Packers have now lost both games in which they didn’t punt this season. Somehow, in each of those games they scored < 20 points with the offense driving down the field throughout the game. Oddly enough, 20 points (which should be the bare minimum for this Packers team to score in a game) would’ve won each of those games outright, putting Green Bay in a far different scenario. There’s much to blame for these losses, but if you’re not punting, you’re either going for it on 4^th down or settling for field goals. It also means you’re driving the ball down the field and you can’t finish drives in the end zone after reaching the red zone (opponents’ 20-yard line). The Packers rank 14^th in the NFL in Red Zone efficiency and that’s simply not good enough to beat playoff teams. They’re converting at a 58.9% clip – to break it down further, in Green Bay’s wins they’re converting 72.7% and in their losses is just 39.1%. That includes the tie to Dallas where the Packers converted 5 of 6 trips for touchdowns, meaning in their 5 losses the Packers have gone 4 of 17 for 23.5%, less than 1 in 4…this is probably why LaFleur has been more aggressive as of late going for it on 4^th down as this is the biggest indicator for the Packers in determining whether they win or lose a game. On the flip side, Green Bay hasn’t done a good job of keeping their opponents out of the end zone once they’ve crossed the 20, allowing 61.9% of their opponents’ trips in the Red Zone to result in a touchdown, ranking 25^th in the league. None of the teams behind them will see the postseason unless Tampa Bay (ranking 31^st) squeaks by Carolina.

Did You Call for Backup?

The issue now becomes, probably the biggest story heading into this game – which, if either, starting QB will start? Jordan Love exited the Bears game with a concussion, and based on the statistics (not official), players that have been concussed in the NFL this season only 25-33% of them have been cleared to play the following week. As for Baltimore, superstar Lamar Jackson took a knee to the back in last week’s game, forcing him out and his status for Week 17 at Green Bay is in jeopardy. With such a big game on primetime with playoff implications-a-plenty, the nation may see a match up between back up QBs. While that typically doesn’t bode well, both Baltimore’s and Green Bay’s #2’s are plenty capable with a decent amount of experience.

Tyler Huntley – in his 6 seasons as an NFL quarterback, Huntley is 343/522 (65.7%), 3,105 yards, 12 TD, 10 INTs, with a passer rating of 81.3. The Ravens have gone 4-6 in his 10 starts as a Raven and one of those losses came at the hands of Green Bay in 2021 (Aaron Rodgers’ 4^th MVP season), going blow for blow with a solid Packers team, with Green Bay prevailing 31-30 on 12/19/2021 – a game that might’ve been Huntley’s best of his career. He scored a touchdown with 0:42 left in the 4^th quarter while trailing 24-31. Baltimore decided to go for 2 to try to win the game instead of forcing overtime, but failed. The reserve QB tore up then Packers Defensive Coordinator, Joe Barry, going 28/40, 215 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, a rating of 99.5 and ran in an additional 2 touchdowns. He’s plenty capable.

Concerning Green Bay’s quarterback situation, backup Malik Willis has performed nothing short of great since arriving via a trade before the start of the 2024 regular season. Since joining the Packers, Willis has played in 10 games, having played meaningful snaps in 7 of them. With Green Bay, he’s logged 52/68 (76.5%), for 684 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, for a rating of 132.2. As a starter with Green Bay, Willis is 2-0…in those 7 “meaningful” games, the Packers are 4-3, with two of those games coming against the Bears (last week and Week 18 of the 2024 season). The other loss was in Week 1 against the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in Sao Paolo, Brazil. Even then, he only took 1 snap after Love exited with a knee injury. The odd/frustrating thing about Willis is with the Head Coach and play-caller, Matt LaFleur. His schemes and play calls/designs are much different and extremely effective with Willis under center. Reminiscent of 2019 when LaFleur first arrived. The offense is run-heavy, but effective and Willis is proficient of making almost any throw while having receivers streak open due to the defense guarding run first.

Matchup Matrix

Enter the Baltimore Ravens – a team that began the season, like the Packers, with Super Bowl aspirations, but now find themselves fighting for their playoff lives. Baltimore must win their final 2 games (@ Green Bay & @ Pittsburgh) as well as get help from Cleveland on Sunday by them beating Pittsburgh. Their kryptonite is what they once were known for as their strength; their defense. Baltimore ranks in the middle or back of the league in all the categories. They’re still talented across their entire defense and have a great rushing attack, led by all-world running back, Derrick Henry, but they’re not as effective on offense as they were a season ago. The Ravens still average almost 150 yards per game on the ground, which tires out opposing defenses, but they rank 27^th in time of possession. They also struggle in the pass game on both sides of the ball, which is their biggest weakness. Regardless of who plays QB for Green Bay, LaFleur should open it up and take some shots to try to score from outside the Red Zone considering that’s the Packers’ bugaboo – ranking 25^th and the Ravens boast the 6^th-best Red Zone defense in the NFL. Not a good matchup for the Packers, especially considering recent weeks and the lack of execution in that department.

The other thing is that Baltimore has gotten blown out 4 times this year and not just to playoff teams, meaning they’re inconsistent in a far more frustrating manner than what Packer fans have watched over the last couple of decades.

Who Wins?

If Lamar Jackson ends up playing, Green Bay will almost certainly be the underdog (assuming Love isn’t cleared to play and Willis is the starter), even if Green Bay has the better team the Ravens are in 100% desperation mode and the Packers “can afford” a loss by resting some players – in the sense for they’ve already clinched a playoff spot. Jackson’s speed is an X-factor and will account for some crucial plays. If Green Bay can possess the ball like last week (and not commit any turnovers), the Packers “should” come out victorious just as they should against any team they play and there’s plenty of reason to believe they can accomplish that task.

Season: 9-6
Overall: 116-75