What’s At Stake?

Since Seattle won on Thursday Night Football, they take over the 1-seed in the NFC Playoff Picture and control their own destiny for their positioning. Therefor, even if San Francisco beats Indianapolis on Monday Night Football, which would put their record at 11-4, they’re not leading NFC West and will be the 2^nd Wild Card team. Meaning, just like 2 weeks ago, the winner of the Packers/Bears game will assume the 2-seed and the loser will become the 7^th (last) seed. Again, a crucial game in every manner.

This is also a potential playoff-clinching game for both teams. The winner could lock up a playoff spot if Pittsburgh beats Detroit on Sunday. There’s still a chance for Aaron Rodgers to crush Bear fans’ hearts once again. The loser of the Packers/Bears game will still control their own destiny to lock up a playoff berth, but likely would have to win their final 2 games to do so.

Matchup Matrix

Not much has changed in terms of team rankings (and positions as well as the standings) between these 2 teams from their meeting two weeks ago. Green Bay’s offense is still 13^th in yards and 10^th in scoring whereas Chicago’s defense ranks 24^th and 21^st, respectively. Advantage Green Bay – then again if Zach Tom misses this game that likely changes the Packers’ offense’s effectiveness, but still their unit over the last 5 games has been very efficient, scoring on 64.9% of their drives (24 of 37), with the main focal point being Red Zone efficiency. Green Bay has converted 73.3% of their red zone trips to touchdowns, which is very impressive. If the Packers continue that pace they will won’t lose. The issue in Denver (other than injuries) was settling for field goals instead of trips to the end zone. For example, Green Bay had 4 red zone opportunities only converting one of those to a touchdown. Had they scored at their ¾ pace, that’s an additional 8 points on the board, and considering they lost by 8…

On the flip side of the ball it’s back to strength vs. strength – Green Bay’s Defense vs. Chicago’s Offense. The Packers rank 6^th in total defense and 8^th in scoring defense while the Bears rank 5^th & 9^th, respectively. Green Bay is coming off their 2^nd-worst defensive performance (in terms of points allowed) which doesn’t mean much this season in the NFL since it’s such a week-to-week league, more than it’s every been in recent memory.

As we know, and covered earlier, Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, will have to revert to his 2024 scheme (and still more on this later) to keep this defense playing at a high level. Bears Head Coach, Ben Johnson, seemed to take the loss 2 weeks ago to Green Bay personally and may come out with a bunch of trick plays – similar to his time in Detroit. That could help Chicago get more explosive plays as they plan to have more time for plays to develop with the absence of Micah Parsons, but it will also give Green Bay more opportunities for takeaways and sacks.

As usual, turnovers will likely dictate the outcome, just as it did in Week 14 at Lambeau Field. I believe Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love will continue to be aggressive and should be able to move the ball and put up points against this Bears defense.

How Can Green Bay Win?

It seems like Christian Watson is going to play and Evan Williams won’t. Everyone else will likely be a game-time decision and assuming RT Zach Tom is OUT and HB Josh Jacobs is IN (as long as 1 of them plays) that could severely help Green Bay’s offense in every aspect. If Love can have time to throw he should be able to pick apart this defense just like he did in their first matchup this season, he just can’t give them a freebie. The forecast calls for 34° and clear skies, which should favor Green Bay by being able to set up the run via the pass – much like they’ve been doing over the last 5 games. Its’ not out of the question to think Green Bay should hang 30+ tonight if they don’t turn it over, in fact, it should be expected.

In regards to the defense, there’s an argument to be made that the Packers might be “better” without Micah Parsons. The argument is Hafley will use more disguises, different types of play call, and coverages which will confuse offenses at a higher rate vs. them having to worry about just Micah Parsons, they’re going to have to account for all 11 on defense, every snap. On Friday’s episode of “Locked on Packers,” host Peter Bukowski had on Cody Alexander, who made this very point. Hafley can still use the same defense as he has with Micah, instead of #1 it’ll be a multitude of other players filling that role, whether it’s Quay Walker rushing from the edge or Edgerrin Cooper blitzing inside the A gap(s) (both gaps between the Center and either Guard), or possibly isolating Rashan Gary and overloading the other side of the line to force a 1-on-1 with Gary and confusing the overloaded side – knowing pressure won’t be as quick or frequent as it was with Micah, but could be just as effective. There’s also the game-planning component from Chicago’s perspective that may be different. Since Caleb Williams excels at throwing when he bootlegs/scrambles out of the pocket, but struggles when in the pocket, it appeared that Ben Johnson designed plays for Caleb to escape the pocket knowing Parsons was going to get pressure and to have to chase him all over the field…there are 3 reasons this was the case:

1. Increase Caleb’s time to throw and for the routes to develop
2. Increase his accuracy (as h’s terribly inaccurate when in the pocket)
3. Tire out Parsons due to all of the chasing

I’m not sure if Green Bay will do this, but what makes sense to me is to have Gary, LVN, and Enagbare rush from a contain standpoint and try to generate pressure up the middle so Caleb can’t scramble out and is forced to throw off rhythm and make accurate passes from a location he’s not comfortable. The Packers may mix in a QB spy (1 designated player that does NOT rush the passer, but remain in the box and follow Caleb’s movements) to keep him behind the line of scrimmage and in the pocket, where he’s most uncomfortable. This will likely lead Caleb to get impatient and force a few balls or just flat out miss his targets – those must be intercepted.

If Green Bay can protect Love, catch the ball, and win the turnover battle, they should win – and they may win BIG. Then again, if they do these things against anyone the result should be the same.

Comparing the Packers ’24 Defense to ’25

If you’ve followed the reporting or local sports talk, you know the topic has been brought up: Hafley spent over 7 months preparing to improve upon his 2024 defense without Micah Parsons (Green Bay lost to Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round on 1/12/2025 and acquired Micah Parsons on 8/28/2025). Expanding on my previous “argument,” was the Packers defense better without Micah Parsons?

Since the numbers are relative to each year the rankings are the best to look at considering the league changes annually, but the rankings are relative. Green Bay is much-improved vs. the pass this year and that’s primarily due to the Parsons effect – offenses are much quicker to throw the ball to not take a sack because of the quick pressure, meaning they can’t throw it down field. In 2024, opponents attempted more down field throws to stretch the defense, but that resulted in a boatload of turnovers. The other thing to notice is while their ranking and number total is almost identical, Green Bay’s rush defense was great last year because they had 3 Defensive Tackles (Kenny Clark, TJ Slaton, and Devonte Wyatt) that are now no longer on the active roster. The question now becomes; Can Green Bay stop the run?

The Packers came out of the gate hot in defending the run. The surprising stat is that Green Bay does better against the run in games Wyatt has missed (or didn’t finish) averaging 98.6 yards allowed vs. games he’s played (101.6 yards allowed). Also, they’re 6-3 in games he played and 3-1-1 in games he’s missed, which is another surprising stat – I wonder if the reason is that offenses “think” they have the advantage and Hafley outcoaches the OC…This gives reason to believe Green Bay can stop the run without Wyatt, but couple that with missing Parsons…we’ll just have to wait and see, but there’s reason for hope.

The key stat between last year and this year’s defense (aside from the takeaways) is the 3^rd down conversion % and rank. While it doesn’t “feel” like they were better last year, they simply were. It’s safe to say that if Green Bay gets back to taking the ball away their D may not only not miss a beat, but they could be better. If they do, they could accomplish amazing things – AND Jeff Hafley will be gone.

Who Wins?

Neither team will have sympathy for the other – Chicago is going to be without 2 of their top pass catchers, WR Rome Odunze and WR Luther Burden III. Meaning they’ll likely rely on the ground game and play action involving rookie TE Colston Loveland and DJ Moore in the pass game. This game will come down to which OL performs better – considering that’s been my main concern for the Packers the entire season AND they might be missing Zach Tom, it could spell disaster.

Hope I’m wrong, obviously, but this is a coin flip game…

Season: 8-6
Overall: 115-75