Great Test for Both Teams

Green Bay has played 7 games this season against teams that currently have a win % of .500 or better. They’re 4-2-1 in such games which is very respectable. Denver has played 5 teams that currently sit with a .500+ win % and have gone 3-2, not bad. A winning record against such tough competition is a testament to how good these teams are – and it doesn’t stop there. Both Green Bay and Denver are about as closely matched as any two strong teams in the NFL right now and is why they’re considered top 2 in their respective conferences. This is the best matchup of the NFL this season thus far, but not the most important (that comes next week for Green Bay).

The Packers opened as 1 ½ point favorites and the spread currently sits at GB -2 ½ as of Saturday. ESPN Matchup Predictor states Green Bay has a 53% chance to win, making this game essentially a coin flip.

Where Does Each Team Stand(ings)?

Both of these teams enter this game fighting for the 1-seed in their respective conferences with Denver controlling their destiny (if they win out they maintain the 1-seed). Denver has a very tough schedule remaining having to face:

• Week 15: 9-3-1 Green Bay
• Week 16: 9-4 Jacksonville
• Week 17: 6-7 Kansas City
• Week 18: 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers

Considering Kanas City is the “worst” team they’re going to face, we all know how good they can be and should they win their next couple of games they still could be mathematically alive for a postseason berth, meaning they’ll be desperate. Albeit a tough road regardless.

As for Green Bay, the Packers are currently leading the NFC North (likely playing for the division title next week in Chicago if the Packers pull it out) and the 2-seed in the NFC playoff picture. The Packers have:

• Week 15: 11-2 Denver
• Week 16: 9-4 Chicago
• Week 17: 6-7 Baltimore
• Week 18: 5-8 Minnesota

Denver and Chicago go without saying, but Baltimore has immense talent and was picked as one of the top teams in the AFC this year (as they should’ve been). Minnesota usually shows up against Green Bay and plays well, so there are no auto-wins left on the schedule for Green Bay, however will likely be favored in each remaining game.

Matchup Matrix

This is a matchup of 2 elite defenses which typically comes down to which QB makes the bigger play(s). Each offense is about middle-of-the-road in terms of rankings, but both are dangerous. Green Bay has been rolling on offense as of late, scoring on 18 of their 36 drives during their 4-game winning streak with the last possessions of the Detroit and Minnesota games seeing their offense hold the ball and run the clock out without getting the ball back just to kneel it out – that’s a great clip, 50%.

The similarities of these 2 teams doesn’t stop just on offense or defense, but their turnover situation is right on par. Neither of these defenses generate many turnovers, but their offenses don’t give it away either. This makes it all the more paramount for neither offense to turn it over as allowing the defense to get off the field sooner than otherwise could spell doom as well as giving the other team an additional possession. With the defensive situation and in addition to turnovers, 3^rd & 4^th down efficiency may be the deciding factor in this game. Regardless, this game will almost absolutely be close throughout and come down to the late 4^th quarter because each of these defenses keep their teams in games. A final thought on this, while the altitude and wind can mess with the kicking game, it’s important to remember that Packers Kicker, Brandon McManus, kicked for the Broncos from 2014-2022, having won Super Bowl 50 (2015 season) as the Broncos Kicker. The field, conditions, altitude, everything, shouldn’t be an issue for him…shouldn’t.

How Can Denver Win?

Denver has the best offensive line in the NFL as well as the best overall pass rush. How Green Bay fares against both (win the line of scrimmage) likely determines this game. If the Broncos can play keep away (much like Carolina did in Lambeau 6 weeks back) that will keep their pass rush fresh and wear out the Packers defensive front – especially in the altitude. Also, Denver likely must win the turnover battle to gain an additional possession as their offense seemingly goes dark for long stretches of time. If you watch the NFL regularly, you may remember the epic comeback against the Giants when Denver was losing 19-0 in the 4^th quarter and staged a 33-point 4^th quarter to win 33-32, but let’s not forget they were getting shut out through 3 quarters, at home, to the New York Giants. Denver also has won games with point totals of 18, 10, and 22 since then…even if the opposing defenses were good, great teams find ways to win, but great offenses find ways to score 20 – especially at home. If Sean Payton’s offense is stagnant to begin, they may try to play keep away in order to not get in a shootout with the higher-flying offense of Green Bay.

How Can Green Bay Win?

As mentioned before, Green Bay must continue to take care of the football while trying to put up points against a great defense. If this game does become keep away, the good news is while Denver ranks 2^nd in the NFL against the run, the Packers run game is “better” than Denver’s, but the Packers have struggled as of late at stopping the run…hence winning the line of scrimmage. Even if Denver is stout vs. the run, Green Bay will need to keep them honest by keeping a good balance to hold off their pass rush (Denver leads the NFL with 55 sacks) and their linebackers and d-backs from sitting in coverage. The Broncos also lead the league in tight-window-coverage (according to NextGen Stats) – couple that with their pass rush there may not be as many shot plays (deep balls) as we’ve seen of late, but all the more imperative that Reed and (hopefully) Golden can create space in the intermediate territory of the field. All in all, holding onto the football, keeping a good run/pass balance, and getting the defense off the field should be plenty for Green Bay to pull this one out.

Prediction Time

Green Bay is one of the hottest teams in the NFL – they’re also finally playing with a bit more consistency and are just that good. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak and have eeked out a bunch of close games in that stretch. When teams are this close in every category (and overall makeup) you tend to look at the Head Coach and QB combo – the combo of LaFleur + Love, I believe is > Payton + Nix.

Season: 8-5
Overall: 115-74