Big Picture

While it’s been rare for a Bears/Packers game to have meaning across the rest of the conference, this time all eyes will be on Lambeau Field as this pits 2 of the top teams in the NFC – and will have major implications for every team that’s above .500. The NFC playoff picture is so tight that the loser of this game falls to the 7^th seed…which is wild considering Chicago currently sits atop the NFC, just a major game in every facet.

Not only is the entire NFC concerned with this game, but it could determine the division (NFC North). Whichever team loses will be in complete desperation-mode as they will be the 7^th seed (mentioned above) and have the Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers breathing down their necks. The winner will have a huge leg up in the division and increase their playoff chances incredibly, with quite a bit of meat left on the schedule.

This is such an interesting matchup, mainly because these two teams play each other 13 days after their first meeting. Which will be another pivotal game for both and the entire NFC playoff picture come Dec. 20^th.

How Did Each Team Get Here?

The Bears opened the season in (hindsight) awful fashion. The Bears lost to JJ McCarthy and the now 4-8 Vikings at home to open the season. Then followed it up by getting destroyed by the Lions, 52-21. However, since then the Bears have won 9 of their last 10 games and have done so by winning a ton of close games. Their most impressive win of the season came last week at Philadelphia, beating the Super Bowl champs 24-15 and controlled the entire game.

As for Green Bay, we’re all familiar with how we ended up here. The Packers started their season looking like the best team in the NFL through the first 2 weeks of the season. After a roller-coaster 10-game stretch, it seems like the Packers have figured out how to win in various ways. That’s the positive way to look at it, the other way to look at it is that LaFluer gets stuck in playing to the level of competition he’s facing. Or we could be at the turning point of this entire season and “rebuild” of Green Bay possibly putting something special together – which we will figure out come Sunday about 7pm.

Matchup Matrix

Just like the Detroit matchup, this game pits two of the best groups in the NFL against one another: Chicago’s offense v Green Bay’s defense. Mainly Chicago’s 2^nd-ranked ground attack against Green Bay’s top 7^th-ranked rush defense. Green Bay’s rush defense took a huge hit against Detroit by losing DT Devonte Wyatt to an ankle injury for the season. The defense is starkly different without Wyatt, evidenced no better than that Dallas game back in Week 4.

The potential good news is that the answer to solve the Wyatt injury may rest on the roster already…Evan Williams has been nothing short of outstanding since being drafted in the 4^th round in last year’s (2024) draft. He leads the team with 3 interceptions, all of them coming in crucial moments. He’s also been spectacular in the run game.

Let’s not forget, potentially getting Quay Walker back could have a huge impact on the rush defense, evidenced by this tweet from @TitleTownTalks. The Packers run D is far more effective when he’s on the field, however, Isaiah McDuffie has been nothing short of amazing filling in these last few games. That’s a testament to GM Brian Gutekunst for building a team with immense depth.

How Does Green Bay Win this Game?

The main challenge the Bears present is their rushing attack. They’ve rushed for 974 yards during their 5-game winning streak, that’s an average of 194.8 yards/game. Impressive numbers from a team that certainly has a ton of confidence – which is the most dangerous aspect of Chicago.

In Chicago’s wins, they’ve averaged 50 more rushing yards/game than in their losses. They’ve also averaged an additional 7.7 points per game in their wins. The key stat, however, is in their wins, they average 2.8 takeaways per game vs. just .333 takeaways in their losses. In their 3 losses, they’ve only generated 1 turnover, combined. Essentially the key to beating the Bears is to hold onto the football.

In Chicago’s losses, they’ve committed almost an entire turnover more per game than their wins (0.6 turnovers/win vs. 1.3 turnovers/loss). Along with that, in their wins they give up an average of 22.0 points per game whereas in their losses they’re averaging 36.3 points given up per game. Now, since they only have 3 losses, their week 2 loss at Detroit ballooned that number considering the Lions hung 52 on them, but it still occurred. They’ve also given up 42 points to the Bengals in their win. It kind of averages out, all things considered. It still comes down to turnovers, as it usually does. The Bears are a lesser team, but turnovers are the equalizer, as they typically are.

Who’s the Better Team? And will THAT team win?

Considering Love and the Packers are the best team in the NFL at not turning the ball over, that creates the biggest matchup of strength v. strength. Chicago leads the league in takeaways with 26, while Green Bay leads the league in giveaways with just 7. Should Green Bay commit fewer than 2 turnovers, I don’t see how this Bears team can stop Green Bay’s offense from moving up and down the field, and even settling for field goals a couple of times should be enough for the Packers to pull out the victory.

Season: 7-5
Overall: 114-74