What’s At Stake?

Since Seattle won on Thursday Night Football, they take over the 1-seed in the NFC Playoff Picture and control their own destiny for their positioning. Therefor, even if San Francisco beats Indianapolis on Monday Night Football, which would put their record at 11-4, they’re not leading NFC West and will be the 2^nd Wild Card team. Meaning, just like 2 weeks ago, the winner of the Packers/Bears game will assume the 2-seed and the loser will become the 7^th (last) seed. Again, a crucial game in every manner.

This is also a potential playoff-clinching game for both teams. The winner could lock up a playoff spot if Pittsburgh beats Detroit on Sunday. There’s still a chance for Aaron Rodgers to crush Bear fans’ hearts once again. The loser of the Packers/Bears game will still control their own destiny to lock up a playoff berth, but likely would have to win their final 2 games to do so.

Matchup Matrix

Not much has changed in terms of team rankings (and positions as well as the standings) between these 2 teams from their meeting two weeks ago. Green Bay’s offense is still 13^th in yards and 10^th in scoring whereas Chicago’s defense ranks 24^th and 21^st, respectively. Advantage Green Bay – then again if Zach Tom misses this game that likely changes the Packers’ offense’s effectiveness, but still their unit over the last 5 games has been very efficient, scoring on 64.9% of their drives (24 of 37), with the main focal point being Red Zone efficiency. Green Bay has converted 73.3% of their red zone trips to touchdowns, which is very impressive. If the Packers continue that pace they will won’t lose. The issue in Denver (other than injuries) was settling for field goals instead of trips to the end zone. For example, Green Bay had 4 red zone opportunities only converting one of those to a touchdown. Had they scored at their ¾ pace, that’s an additional 8 points on the board, and considering they lost by 8…

On the flip side of the ball it’s back to strength vs. strength – Green Bay’s Defense vs. Chicago’s Offense. The Packers rank 6^th in total defense and 8^th in scoring defense while the Bears rank 5^th & 9^th, respectively. Green Bay is coming off their 2^nd-worst defensive performance (in terms of points allowed) which doesn’t mean much this season in the NFL since it’s such a week-to-week league, more than it’s every been in recent memory.

As we know, and covered earlier, Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, will have to revert to his 2024 scheme (and still more on this later) to keep this defense playing at a high level. Bears Head Coach, Ben Johnson, seemed to take the loss 2 weeks ago to Green Bay personally and may come out with a bunch of trick plays – similar to his time in Detroit. That could help Chicago get more explosive plays as they plan to have more time for plays to develop with the absence of Micah Parsons, but it will also give Green Bay more opportunities for takeaways and sacks.

As usual, turnovers will likely dictate the outcome, just as it did in Week 14 at Lambeau Field. I believe Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love will continue to be aggressive and should be able to move the ball and put up points against this Bears defense.

How Can Green Bay Win?

It seems like Christian Watson is going to play and Evan Williams won’t. Everyone else will likely be a game-time decision and assuming RT Zach Tom is OUT and HB Josh Jacobs is IN (as long as 1 of them plays) that could severely help Green Bay’s offense in every aspect. If Love can have time to throw he should be able to pick apart this defense just like he did in their first matchup this season, he just can’t give them a freebie. The forecast calls for 34° and clear skies, which should favor Green Bay by being able to set up the run via the pass – much like they’ve been doing over the last 5 games. Its’ not out of the question to think Green Bay should hang 30+ tonight if they don’t turn it over, in fact, it should be expected.

In regards to the defense, there’s an argument to be made that the Packers might be “better” without Micah Parsons. The argument is Hafley will use more disguises, different types of play call, and coverages which will confuse offenses at a higher rate vs. them having to worry about just Micah Parsons, they’re going to have to account for all 11 on defense, every snap. On Friday’s episode of “Locked on Packers,” host Peter Bukowski had on Cody Alexander, who made this very point. Hafley can still use the same defense as he has with Micah, instead of #1 it’ll be a multitude of other players filling that role, whether it’s Quay Walker rushing from the edge or Edgerrin Cooper blitzing inside the A gap(s) (both gaps between the Center and either Guard), or possibly isolating Rashan Gary and overloading the other side of the line to force a 1-on-1 with Gary and confusing the overloaded side – knowing pressure won’t be as quick or frequent as it was with Micah, but could be just as effective. There’s also the game-planning component from Chicago’s perspective that may be different. Since Caleb Williams excels at throwing when he bootlegs/scrambles out of the pocket, but struggles when in the pocket, it appeared that Ben Johnson designed plays for Caleb to escape the pocket knowing Parsons was going to get pressure and to have to chase him all over the field…there are 3 reasons this was the case:

1. Increase Caleb’s time to throw and for the routes to develop
2. Increase his accuracy (as h’s terribly inaccurate when in the pocket)
3. Tire out Parsons due to all of the chasing

I’m not sure if Green Bay will do this, but what makes sense to me is to have Gary, LVN, and Enagbare rush from a contain standpoint and try to generate pressure up the middle so Caleb can’t scramble out and is forced to throw off rhythm and make accurate passes from a location he’s not comfortable. The Packers may mix in a QB spy (1 designated player that does NOT rush the passer, but remain in the box and follow Caleb’s movements) to keep him behind the line of scrimmage and in the pocket, where he’s most uncomfortable. This will likely lead Caleb to get impatient and force a few balls or just flat out miss his targets – those must be intercepted.

If Green Bay can protect Love, catch the ball, and win the turnover battle, they should win – and they may win BIG. Then again, if they do these things against anyone the result should be the same.

Comparing the Packers ’24 Defense to ’25

If you’ve followed the reporting or local sports talk, you know the topic has been brought up: Hafley spent over 7 months preparing to improve upon his 2024 defense without Micah Parsons (Green Bay lost to Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round on 1/12/2025 and acquired Micah Parsons on 8/28/2025). Expanding on my previous “argument,” was the Packers defense better without Micah Parsons?

Since the numbers are relative to each year the rankings are the best to look at considering the league changes annually, but the rankings are relative. Green Bay is much-improved vs. the pass this year and that’s primarily due to the Parsons effect – offenses are much quicker to throw the ball to not take a sack because of the quick pressure, meaning they can’t throw it down field. In 2024, opponents attempted more down field throws to stretch the defense, but that resulted in a boatload of turnovers. The other thing to notice is while their ranking and number total is almost identical, Green Bay’s rush defense was great last year because they had 3 Defensive Tackles (Kenny Clark, TJ Slaton, and Devonte Wyatt) that are now no longer on the active roster. The question now becomes; Can Green Bay stop the run?

The Packers came out of the gate hot in defending the run. The surprising stat is that Green Bay does better against the run in games Wyatt has missed (or didn’t finish) averaging 98.6 yards allowed vs. games he’s played (101.6 yards allowed). Also, they’re 6-3 in games he played and 3-1-1 in games he’s missed, which is another surprising stat – I wonder if the reason is that offenses “think” they have the advantage and Hafley outcoaches the OC…This gives reason to believe Green Bay can stop the run without Wyatt, but couple that with missing Parsons…we’ll just have to wait and see, but there’s reason for hope.

The key stat between last year and this year’s defense (aside from the takeaways) is the 3^rd down conversion % and rank. While it doesn’t “feel” like they were better last year, they simply were. It’s safe to say that if Green Bay gets back to taking the ball away their D may not only not miss a beat, but they could be better. If they do, they could accomplish amazing things – AND Jeff Hafley will be gone.

Who Wins?

Neither team will have sympathy for the other – Chicago is going to be without 2 of their top pass catchers, WR Rome Odunze and WR Luther Burden III. Meaning they’ll likely rely on the ground game and play action involving rookie TE Colston Loveland and DJ Moore in the pass game. This game will come down to which OL performs better – considering that’s been my main concern for the Packers the entire season AND they might be missing Zach Tom, it could spell disaster.

Hope I’m wrong, obviously, but this is a coin flip game…

Season: 8-6
Overall: 115-75

Moving On Without Micah

The narrative heading into the season, prior to the Packers trading for Micah Parsons, was Green Bay was going to contend for a Super Bowl title. The issue now is that’s the same scenario now, but that initial narrative included the likes of Defensive Tackles Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt – they’re both gone. With the current state of the defense, it will be on Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, to scheme pass rush in a different manner as well as devising a different type of coverage considering the pass rush will likely include more blitzing, leaving the secondary with less personnel and more vulnerable to explosive plays (rushing play that gains 10+ yards – passing play that gains 20+ yards).

Keep in mind, last year under then first year DC, Hafley, Green Bay’s defense ranked 6^th in yards allowed (total defense) and 6^th in points allowed (scoring defense). They were able to be so effective in 2024 due to taking the ball away 31 times (4^th in the NFL) and they’ll absolutely need to increase the takeaways if they want to continue on the path to hoisting the Lombardi trophy with their best player missing the remainder of the season.

Much of the attention to fill the void will fall on Edge Rusher Rashan Gary, as it should considering he’s the 2^nd highest cap hit on the Packers this season ($25,771,138 in 2025) he needs to step up his production. He’s been extremely good in the run game and contain, however his pass rush has fallen off considerably since storming out the gates with 7 ½ sacks to begin the season as he hasn’t logged a sack since he recorded 2 in the Pittsburgh game (week 8). The other player that will be looked at under a bigger microscope than he has been is another former 1^st round pick, Lukas Van Ness. LVN (as he’s called) has missed considerable time with a foot injury and his production, much like Gary, has been limited in the pass rush department, but has been a stalwart against the run. General Manager, Brian Gutekunst, used premium draft picks on these guys to do all the above – they now have an incredible opportunity to step up and show Packer Nation they’re ready for the hype.

Referring to the initial plan heading into the season before Parsons joined the team, there’s a player that was expected to take a huge jump after showing a promising rookie season, Edgerrin Cooper. “Coop” was making huge leaps towards the end of last year and flashing his athletic ability all over the field – both in coverage and pass rush (as well as shooting gaps in the run game). Pete Dougherty had a great article in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel stating how the Packers can revert to that initial plan to utilize their uber-talented Inside Linebacker to help fill the void left by the 2^nd best pass rusher in the NFL.

Back to the 7-Seed

With Chicago beating Cleveland and Green Bay losing to Denver, the Bears move back in front of the Packers for 1^st in the NFC North and takeover as the 2^nd seed in the NFC, while San Francisco winning allowed them to hold the 6^th seed, thus dropping Green Bay to the last available playoff spot with Detroit trailing by 1 ½ games. The margin for error is slim to none, making these final 3 games of the regular season as close to “must win” as possible without truly being “must win.” While there is still a path to winning the division should the Packers lose on Saturday night to Chicago, they’d need to win their final two games against Baltimore and Minnesota while Chicago would need to lose to San Francisco and Detroit – both very possible and almost expected scenarios…however, for the sake of our mental and heart health, beating Chicago would be very therapeutic. That, along with silencing their insufferable fans would go a long way for our stress levels moving forward.

Recapping the Game

Prior to the injuries to WR Christian Watson and RT Zach Tom, the Packers were absolutely rolling on offense. Green Bay scored on its first 5 drives of the game, against (arguably) the NFL’s best defense at their home. While complaining about the refs is Loser Talk, on GB’s first drive of the game (after the Micah Parsons forced fumble) the refs short-spotted both Jacobs’ 2^nd down run resulting in an eventual 4^th down conversion and then on the next set of downs, Jayden Reed appeared to gain the 1^st down on a 2^nd & 14, but was marked short and the next play Jacobs was blown up in the backfield on a pitch play (which saw now 3^rd string TE Josh Whyle leave the game from that hit as well). That forced Green Bay to settle for a Field Goal when the offense was humming. While the Packers lost by more than 4, that four-point swing, especially in a tone-setting 1^st drive could’ve changed the direction/path of the game from thereon out. The next Packers drive was halted by one of 4 Rasheed Walker penalties after a 1^st & 10 from the Denver 12-yard line saw Love complete a 7-yard pass to Romeo Doubs to the Denver 5 already leading 3-0, which seemed like an inevitable touchdown. If you’re keeping track, that’s 8 points off the board on just the first two drives of the game. I understand any team can do this for any game, but these are the mistakes (penalties = controllable; refs being awful = out of your control) that can’t happen with Micah Parsons now being out that the Packers must avoid if they want to win against premium teams, especially on the road.

This play ended up being, possibly, the biggest momentum shifting play of the season – and it was the wrong direction. With Green Bay leading 23-14 (having scored 3 right before half to take a 16-14 halftime lead, then coming out in the 2^nd half and ripping off a 40-yard TD run to increase the lead to a two-score game), Matt LaFleur tried another shot play to go for the kill and it was a well thrown ball, especially seeing Love was blasted as he let it go. Watson was in man coverage against the best corner in football, and had a step on him. Had Love been able to step into the throw and lead Watson a step more, that easily could’ve been a touchdown and a fatal blow to the Broncos. The Packers might’ve gone for 2 had they scored to increase their lead to 17 (a three-score game) which given the Packers defense, is almost insurmountable. However, Love was hit as he threw and the ball still hit Watson in stride and Patrick Surtain II made an incredible play to intercept the pass. Essentially a 13 to 15-point swing in that play alone. If you’re still following along, the first two drives the refs and Walker cost the Packers a combined 8 points, and that play cost the Packers at least 6, that’s 14 points right there…

After that play, Watson was hurt as well as Zach Tom and the offense went dormant. Green Bay ran 28 plays following that drive, gaining only 55 yards and scoring just 3 more points the rest of the game. The main issue wasn’t Love or LaFleur (although both needed to find a way to overcome the injuries to Tom and Watson), but as soon as Tom exited, the best pass rush in the NFL made its presence felt and essentially iced the game. The argument could be made that Zach Tom is the 2^nd or 3^rd most important Packer on the roster considering (to borrow a baseball term) WAR (wins above replacement) has got to be one of the highest in the NFL since whomever replaces him is well below average. With all, Green Bay still found itself down just one score (8 points) and had 3 opportunities to go down and tie the game. Those drives were brutal:

• Interception: 2 plays, 2 yards, 0:56
• Downs: 7 plays, 1 yard, 2:31
• Downs: 4 plays; -5 yards, 0:23

The interception was a poor throw by Love, but it still hit Wicks in both hands and should’ve been caught – no, it must be caught in that scenario as it’s a step-up situation and no one did.

The Defense Got Gassed in the 2nd Half, Again (or did it?)

Denver Head Coach, Sean Payton, in his postgame press conference said he told his team to keep hammering away, they’re gassed, the Broncos did end up scoring 20 second half points. However, did the Packers defense really give it up that easily? There was a 2^nd & 7 that Denver hit for 22 yards that saw the most egregious missed holding call I’ve seen in years (of course it was on Parsons) which would’ve set up a 2^nd & 17, likely resulting in a punt, wiping off 7 points for Denver (keeping track, that’s 8 + 6 + 7, see where I’m going?)

This all happened, and the Packers still defense still showed up, but didn’t make the plays necessary to overcome. Denver was able to get their hands on 2 Love passes, catching both. Green Bay got their hands on 5 Nix passes, 3 of them were easy interceptions, caught ZERO. That cannot happen in must-win games moving forward, it just can’t.

Great Test for Both Teams

Green Bay has played 7 games this season against teams that currently have a win % of .500 or better. They’re 4-2-1 in such games which is very respectable. Denver has played 5 teams that currently sit with a .500+ win % and have gone 3-2, not bad. A winning record against such tough competition is a testament to how good these teams are – and it doesn’t stop there. Both Green Bay and Denver are about as closely matched as any two strong teams in the NFL right now and is why they’re considered top 2 in their respective conferences. This is the best matchup of the NFL this season thus far, but not the most important (that comes next week for Green Bay).

The Packers opened as 1 ½ point favorites and the spread currently sits at GB -2 ½ as of Saturday. ESPN Matchup Predictor states Green Bay has a 53% chance to win, making this game essentially a coin flip.

Where Does Each Team Stand(ings)?

Both of these teams enter this game fighting for the 1-seed in their respective conferences with Denver controlling their destiny (if they win out they maintain the 1-seed). Denver has a very tough schedule remaining having to face:

• Week 15: 9-3-1 Green Bay
• Week 16: 9-4 Jacksonville
• Week 17: 6-7 Kansas City
• Week 18: 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers

Considering Kanas City is the “worst” team they’re going to face, we all know how good they can be and should they win their next couple of games they still could be mathematically alive for a postseason berth, meaning they’ll be desperate. Albeit a tough road regardless.

As for Green Bay, the Packers are currently leading the NFC North (likely playing for the division title next week in Chicago if the Packers pull it out) and the 2-seed in the NFC playoff picture. The Packers have:

• Week 15: 11-2 Denver
• Week 16: 9-4 Chicago
• Week 17: 6-7 Baltimore
• Week 18: 5-8 Minnesota

Denver and Chicago go without saying, but Baltimore has immense talent and was picked as one of the top teams in the AFC this year (as they should’ve been). Minnesota usually shows up against Green Bay and plays well, so there are no auto-wins left on the schedule for Green Bay, however will likely be favored in each remaining game.

Matchup Matrix

This is a matchup of 2 elite defenses which typically comes down to which QB makes the bigger play(s). Each offense is about middle-of-the-road in terms of rankings, but both are dangerous. Green Bay has been rolling on offense as of late, scoring on 18 of their 36 drives during their 4-game winning streak with the last possessions of the Detroit and Minnesota games seeing their offense hold the ball and run the clock out without getting the ball back just to kneel it out – that’s a great clip, 50%.

The similarities of these 2 teams doesn’t stop just on offense or defense, but their turnover situation is right on par. Neither of these defenses generate many turnovers, but their offenses don’t give it away either. This makes it all the more paramount for neither offense to turn it over as allowing the defense to get off the field sooner than otherwise could spell doom as well as giving the other team an additional possession. With the defensive situation and in addition to turnovers, 3^rd & 4^th down efficiency may be the deciding factor in this game. Regardless, this game will almost absolutely be close throughout and come down to the late 4^th quarter because each of these defenses keep their teams in games. A final thought on this, while the altitude and wind can mess with the kicking game, it’s important to remember that Packers Kicker, Brandon McManus, kicked for the Broncos from 2014-2022, having won Super Bowl 50 (2015 season) as the Broncos Kicker. The field, conditions, altitude, everything, shouldn’t be an issue for him…shouldn’t.

How Can Denver Win?

Denver has the best offensive line in the NFL as well as the best overall pass rush. How Green Bay fares against both (win the line of scrimmage) likely determines this game. If the Broncos can play keep away (much like Carolina did in Lambeau 6 weeks back) that will keep their pass rush fresh and wear out the Packers defensive front – especially in the altitude. Also, Denver likely must win the turnover battle to gain an additional possession as their offense seemingly goes dark for long stretches of time. If you watch the NFL regularly, you may remember the epic comeback against the Giants when Denver was losing 19-0 in the 4^th quarter and staged a 33-point 4^th quarter to win 33-32, but let’s not forget they were getting shut out through 3 quarters, at home, to the New York Giants. Denver also has won games with point totals of 18, 10, and 22 since then…even if the opposing defenses were good, great teams find ways to win, but great offenses find ways to score 20 – especially at home. If Sean Payton’s offense is stagnant to begin, they may try to play keep away in order to not get in a shootout with the higher-flying offense of Green Bay.

How Can Green Bay Win?

As mentioned before, Green Bay must continue to take care of the football while trying to put up points against a great defense. If this game does become keep away, the good news is while Denver ranks 2^nd in the NFL against the run, the Packers run game is “better” than Denver’s, but the Packers have struggled as of late at stopping the run…hence winning the line of scrimmage. Even if Denver is stout vs. the run, Green Bay will need to keep them honest by keeping a good balance to hold off their pass rush (Denver leads the NFL with 55 sacks) and their linebackers and d-backs from sitting in coverage. The Broncos also lead the league in tight-window-coverage (according to NextGen Stats) – couple that with their pass rush there may not be as many shot plays (deep balls) as we’ve seen of late, but all the more imperative that Reed and (hopefully) Golden can create space in the intermediate territory of the field. All in all, holding onto the football, keeping a good run/pass balance, and getting the defense off the field should be plenty for Green Bay to pull this one out.

Prediction Time

Green Bay is one of the hottest teams in the NFL – they’re also finally playing with a bit more consistency and are just that good. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak and have eeked out a bunch of close games in that stretch. When teams are this close in every category (and overall makeup) you tend to look at the Head Coach and QB combo – the combo of LaFleur + Love, I believe is > Payton + Nix.

Season: 8-5
Overall: 115-74

Love is Turning it on Again

Outside of the interception, which was an awful pass/decision, Jordan was dialed in on every throw. Love was 17/25 (68%) for 234 yards, 3 TDs and the 1 interception for a passer rating of 120.7. He was in complete control of the game, and even had a nice 34-yarder on the 2^nd drive of the game that was overturned somehow. Had that play stood, Green Bay might’ve boat-raced the Bears.

The Packer offense was very efficient all game, averaging 6.5 yards/play and an astounding 8.5 yards per pass. Keeping with the offensive efficiency, Green Bay scored 3 of their 4 touchdowns on 3^rd down with the 4^th coming on 2^nd down with only 0:38 left in the first half.

All 3 of Love’s TD passes were a thing of beauty. He also had a few gaining first downs in key situations on perfect passes. It was close to a perfect game from the offense and the Packers will need to continue this efficiency if they plan to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in early February.

Defense Did Just Enough

Green Bay’s defense held Chicago to just 3 first half points – with the most crucial series coming off the opening drive interception. Holding Chicago to 3 points there would’ve been a success, nonetheless forcing a punt flipped the momentum directly back to Green Bay’s sideline. The Bears amassed just 71 total yards and 5 first downs in that first half. Caleb Williams began the game slowly and finished the 1^st half just 6/14 for 32 yards – he made some plays in the 2^nd half to pull it close, but ultimately blew the game on the 4^th & 1 play at the end of the game.

With the game on the line, Green Bay came up with their biggest defensive stand of the season. With Chicago facing 3^rd & 1 from the Packers’ 14-yard line, Edge Rusher Kingsley Enagbare stuffed the popular Chicago rookie, Kyle Monangai, for no gain setting up the aforementioned 4^th down.

All in all, the Packers allowed 315 total yards and 21 points to an offense that came into the game averaging 374 yards and 26 points per game. Green Bay did their job in every facet: offense; defense; special teams. The main mission accomplished was only giving the Bears 1 turnover and they were blanked on that possession.

Reed’s Return

Jayden Reed returned from IR this week and made a solid statement. He finished with 6 total touches for 53 yards, averaging 8.8 yards/touch. Two of those touches resulted in 1^st downs with one of those coming on a key 3^rd & 1. Reed really opens up the middle of the field for Love to attack and everyone else benefits.

Christian Watson is Developing into a True WR1

Since returning from his torn ACL – Christian Watson has played 7 games and has accumulated 25 receptions for 452 yards and 5 TDs. He’s also logged 20 first downs and just by using your eyes, the offense is far more efficient/dangerous with him on the field. The Packers are 5-2 in those seven games and had they used him properly (like they have the last 2 weeks v. Detroit and Chicago) the argument could be made that Green Bay could be sitting here with an 11-1-1 record – considering they scored a combined 20 points in those 2 games it’s not far-fetched to think the Packers should’ve won both of those games.

Watson is beginning to show that he’s a game-changer considering he now has back-to-back games with 40+ yard touchdown receptions, and a QB willing to trust him to make those plays…funny how that all coincides with him eliminating his drops.

What Now?

With that win, Green Bay took over top spot in the NFC North and the 2-seed in the NFC playoff standings. Chicago dropped down to the last playoff seed (7^th) and should the playoffs begin today the Bears would travel to Lambeau Field for a Wild Card matchup. While each team has an AFC opponent this upcoming week (Chicago hosts Cleveland while Green Bay travels to Denver to face the Broncos), these two teams will matchup again to essentially determine who will the NFC North. Should Chicago drop their game to the Browns, it’s not too desperate to think they’re in “must-win” games the rest of the way based on the playoff picture.

Big Picture

While it’s been rare for a Bears/Packers game to have meaning across the rest of the conference, this time all eyes will be on Lambeau Field as this pits 2 of the top teams in the NFC – and will have major implications for every team that’s above .500. The NFC playoff picture is so tight that the loser of this game falls to the 7^th seed…which is wild considering Chicago currently sits atop the NFC, just a major game in every facet.

Not only is the entire NFC concerned with this game, but it could determine the division (NFC North). Whichever team loses will be in complete desperation-mode as they will be the 7^th seed (mentioned above) and have the Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers breathing down their necks. The winner will have a huge leg up in the division and increase their playoff chances incredibly, with quite a bit of meat left on the schedule.

This is such an interesting matchup, mainly because these two teams play each other 13 days after their first meeting. Which will be another pivotal game for both and the entire NFC playoff picture come Dec. 20^th.

How Did Each Team Get Here?

The Bears opened the season in (hindsight) awful fashion. The Bears lost to JJ McCarthy and the now 4-8 Vikings at home to open the season. Then followed it up by getting destroyed by the Lions, 52-21. However, since then the Bears have won 9 of their last 10 games and have done so by winning a ton of close games. Their most impressive win of the season came last week at Philadelphia, beating the Super Bowl champs 24-15 and controlled the entire game.

As for Green Bay, we’re all familiar with how we ended up here. The Packers started their season looking like the best team in the NFL through the first 2 weeks of the season. After a roller-coaster 10-game stretch, it seems like the Packers have figured out how to win in various ways. That’s the positive way to look at it, the other way to look at it is that LaFluer gets stuck in playing to the level of competition he’s facing. Or we could be at the turning point of this entire season and “rebuild” of Green Bay possibly putting something special together – which we will figure out come Sunday about 7pm.

Matchup Matrix

Just like the Detroit matchup, this game pits two of the best groups in the NFL against one another: Chicago’s offense v Green Bay’s defense. Mainly Chicago’s 2^nd-ranked ground attack against Green Bay’s top 7^th-ranked rush defense. Green Bay’s rush defense took a huge hit against Detroit by losing DT Devonte Wyatt to an ankle injury for the season. The defense is starkly different without Wyatt, evidenced no better than that Dallas game back in Week 4.

The potential good news is that the answer to solve the Wyatt injury may rest on the roster already…Evan Williams has been nothing short of outstanding since being drafted in the 4^th round in last year’s (2024) draft. He leads the team with 3 interceptions, all of them coming in crucial moments. He’s also been spectacular in the run game.

Let’s not forget, potentially getting Quay Walker back could have a huge impact on the rush defense, evidenced by this tweet from @TitleTownTalks. The Packers run D is far more effective when he’s on the field, however, Isaiah McDuffie has been nothing short of amazing filling in these last few games. That’s a testament to GM Brian Gutekunst for building a team with immense depth.

How Does Green Bay Win this Game?

The main challenge the Bears present is their rushing attack. They’ve rushed for 974 yards during their 5-game winning streak, that’s an average of 194.8 yards/game. Impressive numbers from a team that certainly has a ton of confidence – which is the most dangerous aspect of Chicago.

In Chicago’s wins, they’ve averaged 50 more rushing yards/game than in their losses. They’ve also averaged an additional 7.7 points per game in their wins. The key stat, however, is in their wins, they average 2.8 takeaways per game vs. just .333 takeaways in their losses. In their 3 losses, they’ve only generated 1 turnover, combined. Essentially the key to beating the Bears is to hold onto the football.

In Chicago’s losses, they’ve committed almost an entire turnover more per game than their wins (0.6 turnovers/win vs. 1.3 turnovers/loss). Along with that, in their wins they give up an average of 22.0 points per game whereas in their losses they’re averaging 36.3 points given up per game. Now, since they only have 3 losses, their week 2 loss at Detroit ballooned that number considering the Lions hung 52 on them, but it still occurred. They’ve also given up 42 points to the Bengals in their win. It kind of averages out, all things considered. It still comes down to turnovers, as it usually does. The Bears are a lesser team, but turnovers are the equalizer, as they typically are.

Who’s the Better Team? And will THAT team win?

Considering Love and the Packers are the best team in the NFL at not turning the ball over, that creates the biggest matchup of strength v. strength. Chicago leads the league in takeaways with 26, while Green Bay leads the league in giveaways with just 7. Should Green Bay commit fewer than 2 turnovers, I don’t see how this Bears team can stop Green Bay’s offense from moving up and down the field, and even settling for field goals a couple of times should be enough for the Packers to pull out the victory.

Season: 7-5
Overall: 114-74

LaFluer Was (almost) Too Aggressive

Matt LaFluer went for 4^th down on three separate occasions and all were crucial. The first came on Green Bay’s 3^rd possession, it was a 4^th & 3 from the Detroit 22, with the Packers leading 3-0. I didn’t like the decision as taking the points would’ve made it 6-0 with complete control, but it proved a valid try as Love connected with Wicks for the first of their 2 touchdowns on the day.

The second occurrence came on their next drive, which was a 4^th & 1 from the Detroit 2, with Green Bay leading 10-7. Love hit Doubs on a quick out route to jump the lead 17-7 in the Packers’ favor.

The last attempt was the ultimate aggressive decision, to win the game. After Watson’s drop on 3^rd & 3, Love tried to draw the Lions offsides, but “before” the play clock expired, LaFluer called timeout. The next snap we saw Jordan Love hit his iconic fadeaway throw to Wicks who made a great catch for 16 yards, ending the game.

In a tightly contested game against two premier teams in the NFC, these games typically come down to turnovers. Since there were no turnovers, a “Turnover on Downs” acts just as that, a turnover. LaFluer took a page out of the blueprint from Dan Quinn (Washington’s Head Coach) in last season’s NFC Championship game where Quinn and the Commanders beat Detroit at their own game – 4^th down assertiveness and completed the task. Green Bay converted their first two 4^th downs into Touchdowns (14 points) and held Detroit on both of their attempts…technically resulting in a potentially 28-point swing. Had Detroit converted both of theirs and eventually crossed the goal line that would’ve been an additional 14 points for the Lions and since Green Bay scored 14 on their 2 conversions, had they failed it would’ve taken 14 points off the board for the Packers. While coaches get tons of blame (not undeservedly all the time), they should get credit when things go right. However, what happens is the players need to execute and the Packers DID while the Lions did not. It was clear that was the difference in the game. It essentially acted like the Packers were +4 in the turnover margin of this game, and it felt that way.

All the more reason that generating turnovers is a huge part of the game, but converting on them is far more paramount.

Love Was Outstanding – Sans 1 Throw

Jordan Love kept his Thanksgiving dominance going by delivering 18/30 (60%), 234 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, with a 124.2 rating. That brings Love’s Thanksgiving stats to 61/90 (67.8%), 776 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 126.3 rating across 3 games. The most important of all the stats is that he’s 3-0, against solid teams. Two of those wins are road victories against a very good Detroit Lions team.

The 1 miss throw Love had come on the 1^st possession, on 1^st & 10 from the Detroit 27. On a busted play, Love created space by stepping up and Melton (in the flat) took off up field and was wide open for a TD, which Love short-armed. Other than that, he was pretty perfect.

Micah Parsons Continues to Come Through

Parsons finished the game with 10 QB pressures, 4 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, and the huge 2 ½ sacks, with 2 coming on Detroit’s final drive (the last holding Detroit out of the end zone). He was truly incredible which is not an understatement, still at this point in the season. He’s now the first player in NFL history to record at least 12 sacks in each of his first 5 seasons – just amazing.

OL Is Beginning to Gain Some Continuity

The Packers stuck with the same OL for the entire game and it made a world of difference. Jordan Morgan, whom I still like, sat the bench with rookie Anthony Belton getting every snap at RG. Kinnard came in as the 6^th OL for 14 snaps (22%). LaFluer helped out the OL by calling 35 pass plays to 25 runs and that aggression paid off with Green Bay putting up 31 points and would have been 35 had Love not missed Melton on that first drive. The Packers were able to rush for 125 yards on 30 carries (4.2 yards/carry) with Jacobs getting a bulk of the attempts (17 carries for 83 yards). Also, Love was not sacked and had a clean pocket much of the game and Green Bay was able to control the game.

Worth noting, Rasheed Walker had, arguably, the play of the season snagging a Romeo Doubs fumble at the Detroit 6, leading 24-21 late in the 3^rd quarter. The Packers were able to punch it in 3 plays later to extend the lead to 31-21, ultimately proving enough to win the game.

What Now?

This sets up, again, the biggest game of the season as the Bears will travel to Lambeau Field with the winner holding 1^st place in the division. It’s been a while since both Chicago and Green Bay had something to play for in their matchup – but here we are.