Quite possibly the only tougher team to figure out than Green Bay is Detroit.

What Does This Game Mean for Both Sides?

This is a major matchup, the biggest of the season for both teams. Green Bay finds themselves 2^nd in the division and 6^th in the NFC Playoff Picture while Detroit is 3^rd in the division and 8^th in the NFC.

Should Green Bay win, they likely takeover 1^st place in the division (assuming Chicago loses to Philadelphia tomorrow). However, if that’s the case, meaning Detroit loses, their playoff lives are on life support. That present a challenge for Green Bay – Detroit will not only be uber hungry, but desperate.

The good news is the Packers just faced a desperate team and passed with flying colors. The Lions are a different monster than Minnesota…although the Lions just lost to the Vikings on November 3^rd (with JJ McCarthy at QB) they still possess the same talent they’ve had over the last few years and are as dangerous a team in the NFL as any.

Who Are the Lions?

Detroit is quite the enigma, similar to the Packers. The Lions had a 4-game stretch scoring 30+ in each game, with one of those being a 52-21 trouncing of the division-leading Chicago Bears in Week 2 following Detroit’s Week 1 loss @ Lambeau Field. Detroit has scored 30+ in 5 of their 11 games while scoring < 20 in three. Their issue is the defense – giving up 24+ in 5 games so far this season. If their offense doesn’t score 20 or more, they lose (0-3 in such games).

The Lions still have the same roster from the past couple of seasons making them quite capable, but are a bit less consistent in all categories for one reason or another. The main difference now is they rely heavily on their X-Factor at running back, Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s on pace for over 2,000 total yards and 20 total Touchdowns. He’s an absolute monster – keeping him in check, much like Green Bay did in their Week 1 matchup – will be the key, along with pressuring QB Jared Goff.

Goff is a very efficient passer and can “take over” a game with quick throws and getting his ample weapons the ball in space, early and often – it’ll be on Green Bay’s pass rush to ensure that doesn’t happen. Pressuring #16 is the key to victory. As we saw in Week 1, the Packers were able to generate quick pressure on Goff making him have “happy feet,” meaning he panics, rushes his throws, throws off-center and it results in incompletions or interceptions. This is another game where Rashan Gary must earn his paycheck. Gary had 1 nice pressure last week that resulted in an “interception” by McDuffie (I believe it was a strip sack and fumble, but the result was the same). Gary need to produce on a far more consistent basis – much like Micah Parsons has, which isn’t a big ask considering Parsons gets double-teamed more than anyone in the league leaving Gary 1-on-1 for the entirety of the game.

Matchup Matrix

This is a matchup of strength vs. strength (GB D v. Det Off.) and middle-of-the-pack vs. middle-of-the-pack (GB Off. v. Det D). Detroit possesses the 4^th overall offense with the 2^nd scoring offense while Green Bay has the 4^th and 5^th defense, respectively. Lately, the Packers’ D has done a solid job – really since the 2^nd half of the Steelers game where they allowed a garbage time TD (we can call that “empty calories”) and have given up 46 points total in the last 4 games (11.5 points/game). Also, Green Bay just played the Giants, giving up 20 while having an issue with the ground attack…whereas Detroit gave up 27 to the same Giants in less than 48 minutes.

I believe this game will be settled when the Detroit has the ball, because whoever’s strength wins that battle likely comes out on top. Reason being is the Giants just came into Ford Field four days ago and amassed 517 total yards of offense with 395 of those coming through the air. That tells us LaFluer SHOULD put this game on the right arm of Jordan Love and let him sling it. Another reason to throw early and often is Love is the #1 passer in terms of EPA/play on early downs (Expected Points Added). No matter the stats you review, the Packers must pass more if they want to be what they can be – a top-scoring offense on a consistent basis. We saw this come to fruition in the 2^nd half of the Pittsburgh game where Love completed 20 consecutive passes and torched the Steelers en route to a blowout road victory in prime time.

Will LaFluer Open It Up and Let Love Win?

As stated above, this should be a no-brainer to air it out. Even the eye test tells us when Green Bay forces the ball downfield, they move down the field, consistently, and the only thing that holds the offense back (other than play-calling/design) are drops or pre-snap penalties. The more often you put yourself in those positions, yes, the more often those “hold backs” occur, but also the more often you move the ball down the field.

The stats all show Love is as efficient when throwing down field as anyone in the league – begging the question, Why don’t we do this more often? It forces the defense to stop you, much like the Steelers game, and even though Tucker Kraft is gone, Christian Watson seems to be 100% or at least is producing like he is. Stretching the defense with Watson allows the offense to operate in the intermediate passing areas of the field opening it up for Doubs, Wicks, and Golden (assuming he’s active today). There’s also been some cryptic messaging from LaFluer about Jayden Reed’s potential return today, which would be a huge boost as well.

The “issue” with all of this is the ill-conceived confidence Green Bay now has following last week’s ground game and the potential return of Josh Jacobs. LaFluer has shown a gameplan of trying to shorten the game (limiting possessions, keeping his defense off the field, and keeping the game tight) banking on his defense to close out the game – all in all, not a bad design, but when you’re as talented (if not more than) as the other team its frustrating to play the game as an underdog all the time. Like the Eagles game, it kept the game close mainly because the defense balled out, but it proved to be too little too late when the offense was asked to score. Get the pass game going early then ice the game with the run is the ideal offense, assuming you’re ripping off 4.5-5.0 yards/carry, otherwise continue to open it up and go for the kill shot when the opportunity presents itself, especially against tough opponents like Detroit.

Who Wins?

It’s a battle of consistency, or lack thereof. Whichever teams’ “weakness” steps up could be the deciding factor – completely negating what I believe will be the key (whichever teams’ strength comes through). It’s a coinflip game in my mind, and yet again, I can see any of these 3 scenarios playing out: a close win; a close loss; or a blowout win.

Season: 7-4
Overall: 114-73