Did Matt LaFleur Find the Cure?

It may have taken Josh Jacobs exiting with an injury on the worst turf in the NFL, but LaFleur finally opened up the passing game (I don’t remember a single bubble-screen) and it paid off. The Packers’ greatest strength on offense is Jordan Love’s right arm. While Love may “look” quite a bit different than Rodgers in how the ball is thrown, or the decision-making, he is a bit more like Favre in his trusting of his Wide Receivers. The WRs reverted to last year’s form by dropping 6 (official) passes, however, kudos to Love (and LaFleur) to stick with it. Continuing to attack defenses both down field and the linebackers in coverage has resulted in Green Bay’s offense to score 27 points, five different times. Oddly enough, in each of those games Green Bay is 5-0 when scoring exactly 27 points. As stated last week – getting away from the run is NOT the answer, but making the pass the priority might just be.

What Does This Matchup Mean for Each Team?

This is a crossroads game for both teams, but far more for Minnesota. The Vikings find themselves in last place of the NF North, trailing Chicago by 3 games (with 7 to play) and the 11^th seed of the 7-seeded conference playoff bracket. At 4-6, they’re 2 ½ games back of the 7^th (last playoff) seeded San Francisco 49ers. Green Bay currently is 2^nd place in the NFC North and the 6^th seed in the NFC Playoff Picture, 1 loss behind Philadelphia. If Green Bay wins, it sets up a colossal matchup on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit (it’ll be a huge matchup regardless) for both the division and NFC Playoff seeding. If Green Bay loses, all of the LaFleur slander will return (likely rightfully so), and they will be in a similar boat to Minnesota is currently rowing.

The Packers are at a pivotal portion of their schedule – having 3 consecutive games against division rivals. Should Green Bay rip off 3 wins in the next three games they will be set up beautifully in the NFC playoff seeding and have a firm grasp on the division lead.

Matchup Matrix

It’s clear that when Green Bay has the ball, these teams are evenly matched. Each unit ranks in the middle of the league – maybe the one advantage is Green Bay’s rush attack. However, given the uncertain status of Josh Jacobs, which should force LaFleur to air it out a bit more, it’s imperative the WRs catch the ball, especially when they’re wide open as they’ve been consistently all season. The Vikings play the most Cover 2 & Cover 4 in the NFL (the idea is limiting explosive pass plays downfield), considering that’s what LaFleur wants to do it’s the right scheme to run against him. The challenge with it is the answer to beating Cover 2. Based on Sharp Football Analysis for the 2025 season, Minnesota runs Cover 2 and/or 4 on 63.5% of their defensive calls. This leaves a “light box” making less men in the box to defend the run. The answer – call back – is that Love has been better than excellent exploiting Cover 2 this season – which arguably is the toughest defense to throw against. Even with the OL challenges, Love has proven with his production to beat this on a consistent basis. Couple that and Minnesota ranking 22^nd against the run, if schemed properly, the Packers should be able to put up some points while moving the ball.

A Stark Difference In Minnesota’s Offense from 2024

Last year, with Sam Darnold at the helm, Minnesota ranked 12^th in total offense and 9^th in scoring. Quite the difference compared to 27^th and 22^nd, respectively. That’s almost entirely due to QB play. Second year pro, JJ McCarthy, has played 5 games, completing just 52.9% of his passes while throwing 8 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. His QB rating on the season is 61.7 ranking him 34^th in the entire league for qualified players – keep in mind that there are only 32 teams…The weird thing, and yet another example of how weird the NFL has been this season, is half of their wins have come against the 7-3 Chicago Bears and 6-4 Detroit Lions, both on the road. This should keep Green Bay awake for the potential danger Minnesota brings into their division rivals’ home. Keeping with Micah Parsons’ statement, if Green Bay can hold Minnesota to <20 points, the Packers “should” win. The Vikings have eclipsed 20 points in half of their games (5 of the 10), and in their wins, especially against Chicago and Detroit, they’ve been very good in the 2^nd half of each game.

Market (Stat) Adjustment

The 2 late turnovers Green Bay generated last week vs. the Giants felt a bit like a market correction. Here’s yet another opportunity to get multiple takeaways. The Vikings are averaging 1.8 giveaways per game and if Green Bay can get their hands on the ball, much like last week, they should come away with some intereceptionS. Per usual, whoever wins the turnover battle will likely win the game and for the touchdown underdog Vikings to win, they’ll need to win the turnover battle by 1-2, at least. Otherwise, this should be a 2 to 3-score win for the Packers, but we’ve seen this offense sputter all season, so take nothing for granted. Correcting the turnover margin and beginning to take the ball away at a higher clip than they have in the first 10 games, the Packers can help their case to return to not only having a very good defense, but potentially a GREAT defense.

Good News?

Jayden Reed has been out since breaking his clavicle in Week 1. He’s been designated to return from IR, which means he has a 21-day practice window. He practiced yesterday, according to the team’s official site and that would be a welcome sight, especially since Tucker Kraft joined him on IR a couple of weeks ago. Reed could fill the void of Kraft by taking a large portion of the intermediate throws that’s been missing in the Eagles and Giants games. With Reed potentially returning and the great game by Christian Watson last week, the Packers now have 3 legitimate threats with the 3^rd needing more than 3 targets in a game, Matthew Golden. Golden ranks 3^rd in the NFL in separation score against man coverage and must play more along with garnering more targets. Golden getting his 1^st NFL TD would be huge on multiple levels, plus he’s shown to have the best (most consistent) hands on the team. This would be a great confidence-booster to produce v. the 7^th-ranked pass defense. Something to keep in mind watching Sunday.

Also, getting Lukas Van Ness back will help fortify the run defense and the pass rush. Both the pass rush pressures and run D have taken a bit of a hit since LVN has been away. #90 returning should help Gary get back on track and set the edge in the ground game. Van Ness is a forgotten piece in all of this, but without Quay Walker (did no practice all week and is listed as DOUBTFUL) it may not matter. While it would be great to get all of these guys healthy, it’s more imperative to have them available and as healthy as possible in December and January than risk further injury in mid-November, possibly costing them the remainder of the season.

The Bad News

Speaking of the pressure, the defense has generated to the standard set in the first 2 weeks of the season, and that falls on Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, to fix the issue. Whether that’s designing new/different schemes, getting different personnel groupings, or bringing pressure via blitzes more often they must improve and make the opposing QB uncomfortable. All of that could happen, or at least something, but more importantly the answer could be found on the roster already…in the form of Rashan Gary. He needs to be taking over games since Micah Parsons garners all of the attention from offenses (deservedly so) given he’s making $25,771,138 this season. Gary is accounting for the 2^nd most cap space on the roster and needs to play like it. Earn your pay. Coming alive in the 2^nd half of the season, at Lambeau, vs. a desperate divisional opponent is as good a time as any – also it’d give the Lions another piece to gameplan around.

Prediction Time

Considering the standings in both the NFC North and entire NFC, Minnesota is playing for their playoff lives while Green Bay is playing for positioning and validation for being considered one of the better teams in the NFL. While the Packers lost both games against the Vikings a season ago, they were plenty alive in the 4^th quarter of each game after mounting big comebacks in each game, ultimately losing both games by a combined 4 points. If LaFleur throws early and often, Green Bay could finally get the train back on the tracks, and at the right time.

Season: 6-4
Overall: 113-73