What’s At Stake?

The Eagles leap-frogged Green Bay to takeover the #1 seed in the NFC playoff standings. This was always going to be a huge game, but with the Packers’ tie, tiebreakers won’t come into play, so it’s just pure overall record that’ll matter when Green Bay’s involved. The winner takes control of their destiny with Seattle currently holding the 1-spot.

How Can Green Bay Win?

While Green Bay opened this game as a 2 ½ point favorite, currently a 1-point favorite, it sure feels like the Eagles are the better team. Maybe that’s due to Green Bay not putting a full game together and coming off a bad loss. Philly’s defense, however, hasn’t been nearly as good this year as last. The Eagles give up over 120 yards on the ground per game and the Packers must capitalize on that rush defense. Green Bay needs to get the ground game going, which will help the offensive line’s confidence (more on that later) – if Josh Jacobs can eclipse the 100-yard mark, that me be the path to victory.

Philadelphia also has issues with their defensive backfield, hence why they acquired Michael Carter and Jaire Alexender – even though Jaire didn’t make the trip back to Green Bay (another healthy scratch, as it would appear). The Eagles still have Quincy Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, and are returning Nakobi Dean and Nolan Smith from injury, that should help boost their pass rush and linebacking coverage. Couple that with the Packers’ loss of Tucker Kraft, that swings the advantage a bit more in the Eagles’ favor.

Back to running the ball – that will be the key in the game as well as turnovers – as always. If the Packers can keep Saquon Barkley in check (think <80 rush yards or <100 scrimmage yards) that should put the ball in Hurts’ hands to win the game, which he’s been very good this year, but still provides the best path to victory.

Matchup Matrix

As you can see, the Packers have the advantage in the statistical rankings in every category. Regardless of who has the ball, Green Bay has the advantage…on paper. Micah Parsons must have a game and force Hurts into mistakes to generate turnoverS (capital S, plural). Jordan Love also must play well, which he has been, but he must finish drives in the end zone. With that, should this be a “normal” game, meaning there are more than 7 possessions in the game, if Green Bay scores a field goal on every drive that would tally 30 points. It’s difficult to lose when scoring 30+, while that’ll be a tough task, even against the 19^th scoring defense, Green Bay needs to be efficient in the red zone and score touchdowns. Neither team generates turnovers, but also they don’t turn it over. Each of these teams rank 1^st and 2^nd in the NFL in giveaways – whichever team holds onto the ball will come out ahead in the end.

Main Issue – Still an Issue

It’s been the same issue plaguing Green Bay all season; Offensive Line. To expect the OL to magically improve is bordering on the definition of insanity. Now, there are different schemes that could put the OL in better positions to succeed – mainly keeping with the ground game and utilizing play-action off of it. Even if Green Bay doesn’t run the ball successfully, just running the ball will allow play-action to be effective. If the play-calling and design is on point, the offense can hang points with anyone in the league, and should.

Something to Notice

In the first 2 games of the season (Week 1 v. Detroit and Week 2 v. Washington) the defense was flying to the football and that’s been missing since. Green Bay needs to get back to the aggressive-style of defense and get back on track. Forcing teams to execute more influences them to run more plays each drive which behooves the defense as the likelihood of a penalty or negative play is more likely. Thus, getting turnovers, a sack, holding call, anything that can stall a drive and get you the ball back. The name of the game is getting explosive plays on offense and limiting them on defense – the best way to limit those is good, quick, tackling. Broken tackles lead to yards after the catch/contact, and there are less and less defenders as the ball is moving down the field. Green Bay flying to the football is paramount and what made them look like the best team in the NFL through the first 2 weeks of the season and why everyone (national media as well) thought they were the team to beat in the entire NFL. Get back to that.

Prediction Time

The spread for this game opened as Green Bay being favored by 2 ½ (as stated above), but has since dwindled to 1.0 in favor of the Packers (as of this writing midday on Monday). The frustrating thing about this Packers team is they can beat anyone, however, they also have proven they can lose to anyone. They seem to play to the quality of their opponent, and the reason for it doesn’t matter because it takes both coaches and players to make this happen – mainly the players. It may be a cop out, but I see this game going 1 of 3 ways…either a Packers blowout or close win, or an Eagles close win. I don’t see the Packers getting blown out, because that’s not who they are. They’re always in the game and it never gets out of hand at any point – this season or almost any game under LaFleur – other than the Week 1 game vs. New Orleans in 2021 where they lost 38-3.

Season: 4-3-1
Overall: 111-72-1