Quite possibly the only tougher team to figure out than Green Bay is Detroit.

What Does This Game Mean for Both Sides?

This is a major matchup, the biggest of the season for both teams. Green Bay finds themselves 2^nd in the division and 6^th in the NFC Playoff Picture while Detroit is 3^rd in the division and 8^th in the NFC.

Should Green Bay win, they likely takeover 1^st place in the division (assuming Chicago loses to Philadelphia tomorrow). However, if that’s the case, meaning Detroit loses, their playoff lives are on life support. That present a challenge for Green Bay – Detroit will not only be uber hungry, but desperate.

The good news is the Packers just faced a desperate team and passed with flying colors. The Lions are a different monster than Minnesota…although the Lions just lost to the Vikings on November 3^rd (with JJ McCarthy at QB) they still possess the same talent they’ve had over the last few years and are as dangerous a team in the NFL as any.

Who Are the Lions?

Detroit is quite the enigma, similar to the Packers. The Lions had a 4-game stretch scoring 30+ in each game, with one of those being a 52-21 trouncing of the division-leading Chicago Bears in Week 2 following Detroit’s Week 1 loss @ Lambeau Field. Detroit has scored 30+ in 5 of their 11 games while scoring < 20 in three. Their issue is the defense – giving up 24+ in 5 games so far this season. If their offense doesn’t score 20 or more, they lose (0-3 in such games).

The Lions still have the same roster from the past couple of seasons making them quite capable, but are a bit less consistent in all categories for one reason or another. The main difference now is they rely heavily on their X-Factor at running back, Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s on pace for over 2,000 total yards and 20 total Touchdowns. He’s an absolute monster – keeping him in check, much like Green Bay did in their Week 1 matchup – will be the key, along with pressuring QB Jared Goff.

Goff is a very efficient passer and can “take over” a game with quick throws and getting his ample weapons the ball in space, early and often – it’ll be on Green Bay’s pass rush to ensure that doesn’t happen. Pressuring #16 is the key to victory. As we saw in Week 1, the Packers were able to generate quick pressure on Goff making him have “happy feet,” meaning he panics, rushes his throws, throws off-center and it results in incompletions or interceptions. This is another game where Rashan Gary must earn his paycheck. Gary had 1 nice pressure last week that resulted in an “interception” by McDuffie (I believe it was a strip sack and fumble, but the result was the same). Gary need to produce on a far more consistent basis – much like Micah Parsons has, which isn’t a big ask considering Parsons gets double-teamed more than anyone in the league leaving Gary 1-on-1 for the entirety of the game.

Matchup Matrix

This is a matchup of strength vs. strength (GB D v. Det Off.) and middle-of-the-pack vs. middle-of-the-pack (GB Off. v. Det D). Detroit possesses the 4^th overall offense with the 2^nd scoring offense while Green Bay has the 4^th and 5^th defense, respectively. Lately, the Packers’ D has done a solid job – really since the 2^nd half of the Steelers game where they allowed a garbage time TD (we can call that “empty calories”) and have given up 46 points total in the last 4 games (11.5 points/game). Also, Green Bay just played the Giants, giving up 20 while having an issue with the ground attack…whereas Detroit gave up 27 to the same Giants in less than 48 minutes.

I believe this game will be settled when the Detroit has the ball, because whoever’s strength wins that battle likely comes out on top. Reason being is the Giants just came into Ford Field four days ago and amassed 517 total yards of offense with 395 of those coming through the air. That tells us LaFluer SHOULD put this game on the right arm of Jordan Love and let him sling it. Another reason to throw early and often is Love is the #1 passer in terms of EPA/play on early downs (Expected Points Added). No matter the stats you review, the Packers must pass more if they want to be what they can be – a top-scoring offense on a consistent basis. We saw this come to fruition in the 2^nd half of the Pittsburgh game where Love completed 20 consecutive passes and torched the Steelers en route to a blowout road victory in prime time.

Will LaFluer Open It Up and Let Love Win?

As stated above, this should be a no-brainer to air it out. Even the eye test tells us when Green Bay forces the ball downfield, they move down the field, consistently, and the only thing that holds the offense back (other than play-calling/design) are drops or pre-snap penalties. The more often you put yourself in those positions, yes, the more often those “hold backs” occur, but also the more often you move the ball down the field.

The stats all show Love is as efficient when throwing down field as anyone in the league – begging the question, Why don’t we do this more often? It forces the defense to stop you, much like the Steelers game, and even though Tucker Kraft is gone, Christian Watson seems to be 100% or at least is producing like he is. Stretching the defense with Watson allows the offense to operate in the intermediate passing areas of the field opening it up for Doubs, Wicks, and Golden (assuming he’s active today). There’s also been some cryptic messaging from LaFluer about Jayden Reed’s potential return today, which would be a huge boost as well.

The “issue” with all of this is the ill-conceived confidence Green Bay now has following last week’s ground game and the potential return of Josh Jacobs. LaFluer has shown a gameplan of trying to shorten the game (limiting possessions, keeping his defense off the field, and keeping the game tight) banking on his defense to close out the game – all in all, not a bad design, but when you’re as talented (if not more than) as the other team its frustrating to play the game as an underdog all the time. Like the Eagles game, it kept the game close mainly because the defense balled out, but it proved to be too little too late when the offense was asked to score. Get the pass game going early then ice the game with the run is the ideal offense, assuming you’re ripping off 4.5-5.0 yards/carry, otherwise continue to open it up and go for the kill shot when the opportunity presents itself, especially against tough opponents like Detroit.

Who Wins?

It’s a battle of consistency, or lack thereof. Whichever teams’ “weakness” steps up could be the deciding factor – completely negating what I believe will be the key (whichever teams’ strength comes through). It’s a coinflip game in my mind, and yet again, I can see any of these 3 scenarios playing out: a close win; a close loss; or a blowout win.

Season: 7-4
Overall: 114-73

Defense Dominated

The Packers had, arguably, their best showing of the season on defense. Green Bay held Minnesota to 145 total yards on just 44 plays (a 3.3 yards/play) while generating 3 turnovers. The Packers also forced three consecutive 3 & outs in the 2^nd half, 5 punts, and a turnover on downs. Just an incredible performance all around. Green Bay also had 5 sacks, highlighted by Micah Parsons’ bull rush over Vikings Center, Ryan Kelly, which might’ve been the best play of the season. The longest play the Vikings had was a 22-yard rush by Jordan Mason.

The 2^nd half defense might’ve been the best we’ve seen in Green Bay since the Week 8 game of the 2010 season where the Packers pitched a shutout of the NY Jets. Even in that game the Jets gained 360 yards. In Sunday’s game, Hafley’s defense allowed a total of -1 yards on 15 plays and picking off McCarthy twice just in the 2^nd half.

Rookie Warren Brinson led the team with 5 QB Pressures, also getting his 1^st career sack (half a sack). As mentioned before, Micah Parsons was incredible once again, completely flipping this game sideways. This is now the 7^th time Green Bay has held their opponent to < 20 points. No mystery to why this team has 7 wins – easily could be more as the Packers are 4-3 in games giving up less than 20 points. Considering the offense has averaged 10 points in each loss…begs to question, “How close is this team to being 11-0?”

Committed to the Run

Matt LaFluer had a gameplan and was quite stubborn to stick to it. Green Bay ran 65 plays, dropping back on just 25, meaning they called a rush on 40, or 61.5% of the time. The Packers were effective enough, gaining 146 yards on 42 rush attempts (3.5 yards/rush).

Without Josh Jacobs, Green Bay turned to Emanuel Wilson and he delivered enough. It took him 28 carries to reach 107 yards (3.8 yards/rush – oddly enough that’s the same avg. Jacobs has on the season) along with both Packer TD’s. There’s been some chatter from Packer fans (and radio stations) calling for Wilson to be more involved and maybe the starter, but a healthy Jacobs likely goes off for 150-165 yards on his own with 28 carries. Wilson missed hitting some holes on time, and he’s not in the same stratosphere as Jacobs in terms of elusiveness. All in all, a very strong performance at the right time. A major reason for the Packers first 100-yard rusher this season was bringing Rookie big man, Anthony Belton, in at RG to utilize his strength and size to create bigger running lanes – he needs to be the RG moving forward and let Jordan Morgan battle for the LT spot – considering he’s the LT of the future, that would make sense.

Special Teams Came Through

The Special Teams contributed to this win in a big fashion. McManus hit on all 5 of his kicks (3 field goals/2 extra points) which was huge and the game-turning punt fumble/recovery to open the 2^nd half. That play essentially won the game. After Green Bay went 6 plays and out, punter Daniel Whelan uncorked a perfect punt which back spun to hit the return man making it a live ball and ultimately Green Bay jumped on. Two plays later Green Bay punched it in to make 17-6, which seemed insurmountable given the way the D was playing and how bad JJ McCarthy has been in his career.

Could’ve Closed It Sooner

After forcing a 3 & out with 2:17 left in the 3^rd quarter, Matt LaFluer decided to run the clock out – much like Mike McCarthy tried to do in the 2014 NFC Championship Game. The difference being, McCarthy’s QB was struggling AND facing a top defense whereas Love’s stats aren’t they could’ve/should’ve been due to lack of opportunity. LaFluer ran the ball on all 8 plays of the drive, while leading 17-6. Scoring a TD there ices the game by making it a 3-score game. It’s the “safe” way to play, but while you can trust your defense, you shouldn’t call a game to completely RELY on them, especially against stiffer competition. Now, I’m not saying he should’ve gone for it on 4^th down on Minnesota’s 12-yard line leading by 11 early in the 4^th quarter, but just running on every play was the play “not to lose” gameplan. It worked, but that can easily come to bite you as early as Thursday against a competent QB and dangerous offense. However, this was the most complete game Green Bay has played, so the answer to the question is YES.

Again, regardless of the outcome of this game and the Giants/Lions game, this Thanksgiving matchup was going to be a monumental one. While neither are leading the division, the winner of this game WILL be the division favorite beginning Friday.

Did Matt LaFleur Find the Cure?

It may have taken Josh Jacobs exiting with an injury on the worst turf in the NFL, but LaFleur finally opened up the passing game (I don’t remember a single bubble-screen) and it paid off. The Packers’ greatest strength on offense is Jordan Love’s right arm. While Love may “look” quite a bit different than Rodgers in how the ball is thrown, or the decision-making, he is a bit more like Favre in his trusting of his Wide Receivers. The WRs reverted to last year’s form by dropping 6 (official) passes, however, kudos to Love (and LaFleur) to stick with it. Continuing to attack defenses both down field and the linebackers in coverage has resulted in Green Bay’s offense to score 27 points, five different times. Oddly enough, in each of those games Green Bay is 5-0 when scoring exactly 27 points. As stated last week – getting away from the run is NOT the answer, but making the pass the priority might just be.

What Does This Matchup Mean for Each Team?

This is a crossroads game for both teams, but far more for Minnesota. The Vikings find themselves in last place of the NF North, trailing Chicago by 3 games (with 7 to play) and the 11^th seed of the 7-seeded conference playoff bracket. At 4-6, they’re 2 ½ games back of the 7^th (last playoff) seeded San Francisco 49ers. Green Bay currently is 2^nd place in the NFC North and the 6^th seed in the NFC Playoff Picture, 1 loss behind Philadelphia. If Green Bay wins, it sets up a colossal matchup on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit (it’ll be a huge matchup regardless) for both the division and NFC Playoff seeding. If Green Bay loses, all of the LaFleur slander will return (likely rightfully so), and they will be in a similar boat to Minnesota is currently rowing.

The Packers are at a pivotal portion of their schedule – having 3 consecutive games against division rivals. Should Green Bay rip off 3 wins in the next three games they will be set up beautifully in the NFC playoff seeding and have a firm grasp on the division lead.

Matchup Matrix

It’s clear that when Green Bay has the ball, these teams are evenly matched. Each unit ranks in the middle of the league – maybe the one advantage is Green Bay’s rush attack. However, given the uncertain status of Josh Jacobs, which should force LaFleur to air it out a bit more, it’s imperative the WRs catch the ball, especially when they’re wide open as they’ve been consistently all season. The Vikings play the most Cover 2 & Cover 4 in the NFL (the idea is limiting explosive pass plays downfield), considering that’s what LaFleur wants to do it’s the right scheme to run against him. The challenge with it is the answer to beating Cover 2. Based on Sharp Football Analysis for the 2025 season, Minnesota runs Cover 2 and/or 4 on 63.5% of their defensive calls. This leaves a “light box” making less men in the box to defend the run. The answer – call back – is that Love has been better than excellent exploiting Cover 2 this season – which arguably is the toughest defense to throw against. Even with the OL challenges, Love has proven with his production to beat this on a consistent basis. Couple that and Minnesota ranking 22^nd against the run, if schemed properly, the Packers should be able to put up some points while moving the ball.

A Stark Difference In Minnesota’s Offense from 2024

Last year, with Sam Darnold at the helm, Minnesota ranked 12^th in total offense and 9^th in scoring. Quite the difference compared to 27^th and 22^nd, respectively. That’s almost entirely due to QB play. Second year pro, JJ McCarthy, has played 5 games, completing just 52.9% of his passes while throwing 8 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. His QB rating on the season is 61.7 ranking him 34^th in the entire league for qualified players – keep in mind that there are only 32 teams…The weird thing, and yet another example of how weird the NFL has been this season, is half of their wins have come against the 7-3 Chicago Bears and 6-4 Detroit Lions, both on the road. This should keep Green Bay awake for the potential danger Minnesota brings into their division rivals’ home. Keeping with Micah Parsons’ statement, if Green Bay can hold Minnesota to <20 points, the Packers “should” win. The Vikings have eclipsed 20 points in half of their games (5 of the 10), and in their wins, especially against Chicago and Detroit, they’ve been very good in the 2^nd half of each game.

Market (Stat) Adjustment

The 2 late turnovers Green Bay generated last week vs. the Giants felt a bit like a market correction. Here’s yet another opportunity to get multiple takeaways. The Vikings are averaging 1.8 giveaways per game and if Green Bay can get their hands on the ball, much like last week, they should come away with some intereceptionS. Per usual, whoever wins the turnover battle will likely win the game and for the touchdown underdog Vikings to win, they’ll need to win the turnover battle by 1-2, at least. Otherwise, this should be a 2 to 3-score win for the Packers, but we’ve seen this offense sputter all season, so take nothing for granted. Correcting the turnover margin and beginning to take the ball away at a higher clip than they have in the first 10 games, the Packers can help their case to return to not only having a very good defense, but potentially a GREAT defense.

Good News?

Jayden Reed has been out since breaking his clavicle in Week 1. He’s been designated to return from IR, which means he has a 21-day practice window. He practiced yesterday, according to the team’s official site and that would be a welcome sight, especially since Tucker Kraft joined him on IR a couple of weeks ago. Reed could fill the void of Kraft by taking a large portion of the intermediate throws that’s been missing in the Eagles and Giants games. With Reed potentially returning and the great game by Christian Watson last week, the Packers now have 3 legitimate threats with the 3^rd needing more than 3 targets in a game, Matthew Golden. Golden ranks 3^rd in the NFL in separation score against man coverage and must play more along with garnering more targets. Golden getting his 1^st NFL TD would be huge on multiple levels, plus he’s shown to have the best (most consistent) hands on the team. This would be a great confidence-booster to produce v. the 7^th-ranked pass defense. Something to keep in mind watching Sunday.

Also, getting Lukas Van Ness back will help fortify the run defense and the pass rush. Both the pass rush pressures and run D have taken a bit of a hit since LVN has been away. #90 returning should help Gary get back on track and set the edge in the ground game. Van Ness is a forgotten piece in all of this, but without Quay Walker (did no practice all week and is listed as DOUBTFUL) it may not matter. While it would be great to get all of these guys healthy, it’s more imperative to have them available and as healthy as possible in December and January than risk further injury in mid-November, possibly costing them the remainder of the season.

The Bad News

Speaking of the pressure, the defense has generated to the standard set in the first 2 weeks of the season, and that falls on Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley, to fix the issue. Whether that’s designing new/different schemes, getting different personnel groupings, or bringing pressure via blitzes more often they must improve and make the opposing QB uncomfortable. All of that could happen, or at least something, but more importantly the answer could be found on the roster already…in the form of Rashan Gary. He needs to be taking over games since Micah Parsons garners all of the attention from offenses (deservedly so) given he’s making $25,771,138 this season. Gary is accounting for the 2^nd most cap space on the roster and needs to play like it. Earn your pay. Coming alive in the 2^nd half of the season, at Lambeau, vs. a desperate divisional opponent is as good a time as any – also it’d give the Lions another piece to gameplan around.

Prediction Time

Considering the standings in both the NFC North and entire NFC, Minnesota is playing for their playoff lives while Green Bay is playing for positioning and validation for being considered one of the better teams in the NFL. While the Packers lost both games against the Vikings a season ago, they were plenty alive in the 4^th quarter of each game after mounting big comebacks in each game, ultimately losing both games by a combined 4 points. If LaFleur throws early and often, Green Bay could finally get the train back on the tracks, and at the right time.

Season: 6-4
Overall: 113-73

Turnovers Were The Difference

Green Bay finally got 2 turnovers, late in the game, which was the icing on the cake. While they came on the last two drives – that’s usually the best time to have them. The silver lining is that the Packers could’ve had 5 interceptions. Carrington Valentine had 2 dropped INTs alone, Nixon had one on a deep shot, and Bullard had one in his grasp before McDuffie knocked it away. At least they got their hands on the ball multiple times, but will need to convert them to turnovers in the coming weeks, especially against better competition.

The Defense Did Just Enough to Win

Green bay had 2 sacks, both by Micah Parsons, both in huge moments. The first on a 4^th & 3 from the Green Bay 10-yard line late in the 3^rd quarter. The other was the final play of the game. The issue is, much like Carolina, the Giants wanted to shorten the game by playing keep away and they did just that, but the difference here was GB’s offense came through. The offense ended up scoring touchdowns on 50% of their possessions (4 TDs on 8 possessions).

The Giants ran for 142 yards on 38 attempts (3.7 yards/rush), while that’s an acceptable average for a defense, when facing a desperate/aggressive team, they’ll go for it on 4^th down more often (as the rest of the NFL is converting to) that avg. will still result in 1^st downs. Speaking of 4^th downs, New York converted 3 of their four conversions. The one they didn’t was the Parsons sack, which kept points off the board, and in a tight game, a big play. That and the Evan Williams’ INT were the difference in the game.

Love Played An Incredible Game

While his stat line won’t look incredible – 13/24, 174 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 105.2 rating – it easily could’ve been much better. The 6 drops accounted for an additional 76 yards, meaning his stat line would’ve been 19/24, 250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 137.9 rating. Essentially his only “bad” play was lowering his shoulder and taking a hit which caused him to miss a drive. Thankfully Malik Willis is one of the best backup QBs in the NFL and he was able to complete the drive for a TD, even though I’m not quite sure Watson (who caught the 1^st of his two TDs) was the intended receiver. The total QB stat line of the game was:

• 15/26
• 168 yards
• 2 TD
• 0 INT
• 117.5 rating

The Special Teams Are Still A Problem

There were at least 2 penalties, one negating very good field position on a punt return – and while it was wildly windy, there were 2 extra points missed. Havrisik has been a healthy scratch since the Arizona game, McManus’ leg apparently wasn’t healthy and now there’s a kicking issue in Green Bay…Couple all of this with the fact our return man (regardless of whom) are last in the NFL – again, a significant problem.

Remaining Questions

1. Will LaFleur put the offense in Love’s hands – as he was forced to when Jacobs left with his leg injury? It seems to have been working every time he’s been asked to do so, or at least gives us the best chance at winning giving the current construct of this offensive line.
2. Will Love be able to overcome said OL and Special Teams deficiencies to take this team to hoisting a Lombardi Trophy? We’ll find out over the next 3 weeks, should Green Bay win, we’ll be in great shape moving forward.

The Green Bay Packers find themselves 3^rd in the NFC North and holding onto the last playoff spot (7^th seed) in the NFC Playoff Picture. The offense must find consistency and efficiency – and that must come from Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. While the offensive line bears the blunt of the blame, and no Super Bowl winner has had a bad OL, if the Head Coach and QB are as good as we need them to be they need to overcome the teams’ main deficiency. While it goes against all the adages of the fundamentals of football – but this is the boat we’re in – but, a pass-first offense is the only path forward. Being able to run the ball is paramount, especially in the Red Zone and to close out games in the 4^th quarter, but the pass can set up the run and play-action, which is what this OL needs.

Turning to the opponent, the New York Giants blew a late lead in Chicago last weekend which was Brian Daboll’s last straw. The Giants fired their Head Coach after the collapse against the Bears – much of it coming from their star rookie QB, Jaxson Dart, getting concussed and not being able to return. Now the Giants have an interim Head Coach and are starting their 3^rd string QB. Sounds like a recipe for a blowout, however, Jameis Winston is as dangerous as he is entertaining. He’s started 3 games against Green Bay in his career and has fared extremely well vs. the Packers.

While going 1-2, his stat line is:

• 45/68 (66.2%)
• 519 yards
• 7 TD
• 0 INT
• 123.3 Rating

Those are Aaron Rodgers-type stats, for the regular season, however he has yet to see Jeff Hafley and this Packers defense. While Winston can make all the throws, Green Bay needs to generate multiple turnovers and show they’re one of the best teams in the NFL as that confidence has been shattered across, not only, Green Bay fans, but the entire league.

Matchup Matrix

The Packers offense couldn’t ask for a much better opponent in order to get their groove back on track. The giants can’t stop the run, are bad against the pass, and are the 5^th-worst in scoring defense. This is a great opportunity to gain over 120 yards on the ground, 300 yards through the air, and hang 40 setting up a “Get Right Game.” Even if the Packers accomplish this, it likely won’t change the feeling of Packer Nation, but will restore SOME confidence in that they can execute efficiently and score points at a high-clip.

Outside of the 2^nd half against Pittsburgh, it’s been a rough go. Green Bay has only scored 14 points in the 2^nd half of the last 2 games, that simply won’t cut it, especially considering the offense hasn’t scored in first quarter in 5 of their 9 games so far this season. The Packers have been a great 4^th quarter team this season, having only been shut out in the last quarter in week 3 in Cleveland, which was their 1^st loss of their season. All in all, if Green Bay can figure out how to start fast, they’re undefeated in those games. When the Packers have scored in the 1^st quarter, they’re 3-0-1. In each of those games they’ve also put up considerable points in the 4^th quarter to either force OT or seal the W. It’s imperative that LaFleur and the offense start fast allowing their defense to play with the lead and really lean on their pass rush to disrupt their opponents – given that the Giants simply aren’t a good team, it belabors the point, but it’s another reason to believe that Green Bay can get back on track. They need to score and score often. There’s only been 1 game that the Packers have scored in each quarter (Week 4 @ Dallas), and that’s the model for consistency that’s needed to prove how good of a team they are.

Prediction Time

With the Giants having an interim Head Coach, Mike Kafka, and starting 3^rd stringer (Jameis Winston) they’ll likely be very aggressive as they’re playing with nothing to lose. While dangerous, Green Bay can really capitalize by generating turnovers and putting up a ton of points. If the Packers were rolling, much like last year v. San Fran, Miami, and New Orleans, this is a game they should control from start to finish. Look for Green Bay to begin the correction of the trajectory of the season today and start marching toward their goal – Super Bowl champion.

Season: 5-3-1
Overall: 112-72-1

As good as the Defense has played in the 3 losses, the Offense has been that poor. As I’ve stated the entire season, the OL is to blame – at least primarily – for all of this. With just an average OL, Green Bay would be 8-0-1 and that’s assuming the Special Teams were still as awful as they’ve been all season. There’s quite a bit to unpack here.

Play-Calling/Design/Scheme

Has the play-calling been awful? Kind of…The statements being uttered in Packer Nation is that “LaFleur is calling plays as if he doesn’t trust Jordan Love.” Mainly starting the game (and most drives) with run-run and using minimal play-action. To defend Matt LaFleur, the best way to get the offensive line in rhythm is to run the ball. It makes pass blocking easier, while setting up almost every play call/design. The problem is the OL can’t run block. Jacobs keeps getting contacted BEHIND the line of scrimmage. Then on passing downs it’s even more obvious and teams can generate pressure with 4. Regardless of the QB that’s a recipe for disaster. Couple that with being in 3^rd & long (due to not being able to run the ball or using pass on early downs) the Defense can sit in 2-high shell (2 safeties on the back end of the defense) to keep from the big play down field. If you’re limited in your time to throw your WRs can’t get downfield deep enough to get the yardage to gain for a 1^st. If the D is only bringing 4, that leaves them with 7 men to cover, at most, 5 receivers. If they’re getting pressure with 4, then it’s likely the offense is keeping a back or Tight End in to help thus dropping your targets to 4, possibly 3 if you’re keeping both in…that’s a huge problem. Considering you have 5 offensive linemen to block 4 pass rushers, it’s a pure numbers game and you’re losing that over the course of a game.

Execution, Or Lack Thereof

What’s At Stake?

The Eagles leap-frogged Green Bay to takeover the #1 seed in the NFC playoff standings. This was always going to be a huge game, but with the Packers’ tie, tiebreakers won’t come into play, so it’s just pure overall record that’ll matter when Green Bay’s involved. The winner takes control of their destiny with Seattle currently holding the 1-spot.

How Can Green Bay Win?

While Green Bay opened this game as a 2 ½ point favorite, currently a 1-point favorite, it sure feels like the Eagles are the better team. Maybe that’s due to Green Bay not putting a full game together and coming off a bad loss. Philly’s defense, however, hasn’t been nearly as good this year as last. The Eagles give up over 120 yards on the ground per game and the Packers must capitalize on that rush defense. Green Bay needs to get the ground game going, which will help the offensive line’s confidence (more on that later) – if Josh Jacobs can eclipse the 100-yard mark, that me be the path to victory.

Philadelphia also has issues with their defensive backfield, hence why they acquired Michael Carter and Jaire Alexender – even though Jaire didn’t make the trip back to Green Bay (another healthy scratch, as it would appear). The Eagles still have Quincy Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, and are returning Nakobi Dean and Nolan Smith from injury, that should help boost their pass rush and linebacking coverage. Couple that with the Packers’ loss of Tucker Kraft, that swings the advantage a bit more in the Eagles’ favor.

Back to running the ball – that will be the key in the game as well as turnovers – as always. If the Packers can keep Saquon Barkley in check (think <80 rush yards or <100 scrimmage yards) that should put the ball in Hurts’ hands to win the game, which he’s been very good this year, but still provides the best path to victory.

Matchup Matrix

As you can see, the Packers have the advantage in the statistical rankings in every category. Regardless of who has the ball, Green Bay has the advantage…on paper. Micah Parsons must have a game and force Hurts into mistakes to generate turnoverS (capital S, plural). Jordan Love also must play well, which he has been, but he must finish drives in the end zone. With that, should this be a “normal” game, meaning there are more than 7 possessions in the game, if Green Bay scores a field goal on every drive that would tally 30 points. It’s difficult to lose when scoring 30+, while that’ll be a tough task, even against the 19^th scoring defense, Green Bay needs to be efficient in the red zone and score touchdowns. Neither team generates turnovers, but also they don’t turn it over. Each of these teams rank 1^st and 2^nd in the NFL in giveaways – whichever team holds onto the ball will come out ahead in the end.

Main Issue – Still an Issue

It’s been the same issue plaguing Green Bay all season; Offensive Line. To expect the OL to magically improve is bordering on the definition of insanity. Now, there are different schemes that could put the OL in better positions to succeed – mainly keeping with the ground game and utilizing play-action off of it. Even if Green Bay doesn’t run the ball successfully, just running the ball will allow play-action to be effective. If the play-calling and design is on point, the offense can hang points with anyone in the league, and should.

Something to Notice

In the first 2 games of the season (Week 1 v. Detroit and Week 2 v. Washington) the defense was flying to the football and that’s been missing since. Green Bay needs to get back to the aggressive-style of defense and get back on track. Forcing teams to execute more influences them to run more plays each drive which behooves the defense as the likelihood of a penalty or negative play is more likely. Thus, getting turnovers, a sack, holding call, anything that can stall a drive and get you the ball back. The name of the game is getting explosive plays on offense and limiting them on defense – the best way to limit those is good, quick, tackling. Broken tackles lead to yards after the catch/contact, and there are less and less defenders as the ball is moving down the field. Green Bay flying to the football is paramount and what made them look like the best team in the NFL through the first 2 weeks of the season and why everyone (national media as well) thought they were the team to beat in the entire NFL. Get back to that.

Prediction Time

The spread for this game opened as Green Bay being favored by 2 ½ (as stated above), but has since dwindled to 1.0 in favor of the Packers (as of this writing midday on Monday). The frustrating thing about this Packers team is they can beat anyone, however, they also have proven they can lose to anyone. They seem to play to the quality of their opponent, and the reason for it doesn’t matter because it takes both coaches and players to make this happen – mainly the players. It may be a cop out, but I see this game going 1 of 3 ways…either a Packers blowout or close win, or an Eagles close win. I don’t see the Packers getting blown out, because that’s not who they are. They’re always in the game and it never gets out of hand at any point – this season or almost any game under LaFleur – other than the Week 1 game vs. New Orleans in 2021 where they lost 38-3.

Season: 4-3-1
Overall: 111-72-1

Now that the dust has settled a bit, the anger from Packer Nation hasn’t. Many are calling this the worst loss since the NFL merger (1970). This isn’t even the worst loss in the Matt LaFleur era…it’s not even the worst loss this season! If you’ve been following the Packers for some time (or the NFL for that matter), you should’ve noticed that Green Bay loses 2 games every single season that they have no business losing. Now, the Packers have 2 losses this season and both fit that category. Does that mean they won’t lose another game the rest of the season? No. It means they likely will beat the teams they should beat the rest of the year…or if they do lose to Chicago, maybe they’re not as good as we all think. The Packers losing to Cleveland is far worse than a loss to the, now, 5-3 Carolina Panthers. I’m not making excuses – should they have lost? Yes, based on their red zone offense and the play of the offensive line (more on that later). However, coming into the game, Green Bay should’ve won the game comfortably. The stats bear that out.

When you’re the underdog, much like Carolina, you want to shorten the game. This gives the better team less opportunities/time to prove they’re the better team. The Panthers did that, and just like all upsets the favorite must be compliant. Looking at just the stats, Green Bay outgained Carolina 369 to 265, averaging a full yard more per play (5.9 to 4.9). The Packers were even good on 3^rd down efficiency (7/13) while the Panthers were 4/10. The main culprit of this game was LaFleur’s decision to go for it on 4^th & 8 from the Panthers’ 13-yard line with 11:00 left in the game, down 7. In any scenario, that’s a must-kick the Field Goal situation. Regardless of the outcome, even had Green Bay scored a touchdown, they’d still need to hold Carolina to 3 or less on their next drive. The turnovers played a part, but that decision essentially cost the Packers the game – well that, and the awful OL play, which has turned into an epidemic this season.

Josh Jacobs is averaging 0.7 yards before contact and is getting hit behind the line of scrimmage on 45% of his carries. That’s not sustainable for a team with Super Bowl victory aspirations. Other than the OL “figuring it out,” the play-caller/designer must incorporate more quick throws and play action to help the OL create space for Jacobs and the ground game. The side effect to this would be giving Jordan Love more time to throw on passing plays and likely more room for Jacobs to do damage…sign me up!

In the grand scheme of things, it was an ugly loss, at home, to a team in your conference, but again with the tie to Dallas, won’t have any impact on tiebreaking scenarios (unless a team you’re tied with in the standings also has a tie down the road) – this fan base is calling for the firing of Matt LaFleur and believes the Packers won’t make the playoffs and they’re sitting at 5-2-1 and in 1^st place of the (arguably) best division in football. This is not to say that LaFleur is innocent or shouldn’t be on the hot seat, but he’d be hired in a heartbeat should he lose his job, regardless of when/how. My personal idea would be for him to take a page out of McCarthy’s playbook and give up play-calling (not because he’s bad) because that’s 2 full time jobs he’s conducting and Head Coach is the priority. Allow your Offensive Coordinator to takeover playcalling so you can get a better handle on gameday scenarios and situations rather than concerned with specific play calls/designs that’ll work in those specific situations.

The Packers Were Able to Finish

After garnering just 7 points in the 1^st half, Green Bay exploded for 28 following half time. Green Bay’s first half drives left a lot to be desired:

1. 3 & out – PUNT
2. TOUCHDOWN
3. Missed FG
4. 3 & out – PUNT
5. 3 & out – PUNT
6. Missed FG

Coming out of half time, Pittsburgh started with the ball and the Packers’ D held them to a 3 & out…enter Tucker Kraft. The Packers put together their best half of football since the Thanksgiving game last year.

2^nd Half Drives:

1. TOUCHDOWN: 9 plays; 90 yards; 5:13
2. TOUCHDOWN: 10 plays; 78 yards; 5:39
3. TOUCHDOWN: 4 plays; 45 yards; 2:01
4. FIELD GOAL: 8 plays; 47 yards; 3:28
5. FIELD GOAL: 5 plays; 19 yards; 1:08
6. END OF GAME: 4 plays; 10 yards; 2:07

Totaling: 40 plays; 289 yards; 19:36 and scoring 28 points. That comes to 4.67 points/drive, or 5.6 points/drive on drives they were attempting to score considering the last drive’s goal was to get a 1^st down to ice the game.

It was Green Bay’s most complete game – and they still screwed around in the 1^st half aside from 1 drive. The game would’ve felt much different heading into half had they made their 2 field goal attempts, as it would’ve been a 16-13 deficit, but it was moot in the end.

Now Enter Carolina

The Panthers enter Week 9 having won 3 of their last 4, however, they are coming off a crushing defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills – another Super Bowl contender. It’s easy to think the Packers could/should do the same, but we’ve seen this team and followed them for too long to know they don’t win the game from the start-to-finish. They doesn’t mean Green Bay can’t put this game away and get backup QB Malik Willis some snaps in the 4^th quarter.

Matchup Matrix

The major matchup to watch – or at least what one would think be the key to the game – is Carolina’s 5^th-ranked rushing attack vs. Green Bay’s 3^rd-ranked rush defense. Carolina had a stretch where they ran rampant over their opponents and it was the catalyst for their 3-game win streak. The Packers have been able to hold their opponents under 100 yards rushing in each game outside of their Week 4 tie in Dallas. The Panthers are averaging close to 140 rush yards and is their primary avenue to victory. If the Packers are able to stifle Carolina’s rush attack, it sets up a scenario where Green Bay could completely dominate this game, much like the Bills did last week.

The Panthers are a middle-of-the-road defense, as you can see ranking between 10^th and 20^th in each category. We know that LaFleur wants to get the Packers’ ground game going and that’s been improving (slowly) since the consistency of the offensive line has improved. This would be a great game to get an early lead and have Josh Jacobs and the ground attack rack up 150+ rush yards, chewing up the clock and icing this game early in the 2^nd half. It’s doable, but should Green Bay hold on to the football and not give away possessions, it’s tough to see how Carolina stays in this game.

That being said, special teams reared their ugly head last week, again (at least 1 holding penalty and 2 missed field goals). Special teams were the primary reason for both of the Packers’ non-wins this season (blocked field goal in Cleveland and a blocked extra point in Dallas).

Other than getting the ground game going, the Packers haven’t created turnovers this season, only generating 4 (ranking in a tie for 30^th)…much of the reason is to the opposing offense not throwing into danger because they’re under duress, quickly, from the pass rush and rather taking sacks or throwing the ball away instead of into danger. Carolina’s QB, Bryce Young, could give Green Bay some opportunities to intercept some passes and improve that statistic as well.

This is a game where one team is far superior than the other, however, if we have learned anything by watching the NFL – never take winning for granted is it’s never guaranteed.

Prediction Time

On the season, I’m 4-2-1 and guessing wins and losses, and 111-71-1 since I began this blog…I’m fairly confident in this game…we shall see if LaFleur can get these guys to play a complete game and improve the running game while generating turnovers.