This may have been one of, if not the, most one-sided officiated games I’ve ever seen. By count, the Lions benefitted, at least, 15 points from the zebras – the officials dictated the outcome of the game. With that being said, the better team still won.

Green Bay can’t start the game with Punt, Punt, and Fumble on their first 3 drives, falling behind 10-0, against one of the NFL’s top teams, especially on the road and expect to win. The deciding factor in the game was the defense getting absolutely torched in the throw game, especially on play-action and the screen game. The 3 phases the Defense must not allow, Detroit mastered and executed at a Super Bowl-winning level:

1. Play Action
2. 3^rd down conversions
3. 4^th down conversions

Play Action – Jared Goff’s stat line on play action was 14/18 (77.8%), 149 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, for a QB Rating of 119.2. That simply is unacceptable for a defense that’s striving to win a Lombardi Trophy. Detroit also converted 7-15 (46.7%) of 3^rd downs, which would put them 2^nd in the NFL if that was their season-long conversion avg. When you incorporate 4^th downs, Detroit was successful on 4 of their 5 fourth down attempts. Essentially putting them at 11-15 on 3^rd down conversions, with two of those resulting in touchdowns. The defense must be better, both in the pass rush and coverage. Missing Jaire Alexander (more on him later), Edgerrin Cooper, and Evan Williams definitely played into this.

What to Take From this Game

After sleeping on it for a few nights, Green Bay is still a full year ahead of schedule (rebuilds typically take 2-3 years to begin competing, the Packers did this in Year 1, at least a full year ahead), however it felt like the season was over for 1 reason. They couldn’t beat Detroit in ideal conditions on 7 days’ rest with Detroit missing their two beasts on the D-line, and Green Bay couldn’t run the ball…Sure Green Bay was missing guys too; however, everyone is beat up by December and very rarely in full health come postseason. The silver lining is Green Bay is still young (youngest in the NFL) and will only improve, but time’s running out.

Green Bay also needs to do a much better job of Time of Possession…the Packers currently rank 15^th in the NFL, but having the 5^th most rushing yards in the NFL, that ranking should be towards the top-10 helping their defense even more.

Current Standing/Situation

Green Bay currently sits in the 6^th seed, still, behind Minnesota for the highest Wild Card seed and are essentially eliminated from the Division title and the highly-coveted 1-seed. It would still behoove Green Bay to win that 5^th-seed as they’d face the worst Division winner in the Wild Card game and keeping away from Detroit as long as possible. There’s actually an outside shot they could host the NFC Championship game should Washington (currently the 7^th seed) upset Philadelphia and Detroit to make the title game.

Seattle sits atop the NFC West (3-seed) with the Rams lurking, and should Green Bay beat Seattle, the Rams would overtake the lead in the division. This is a monumental game for Seattle as they’re 8-5 and falling to 8-6 likely would put them on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

Matchup: Green Bay @ Seattle

Of the standings listed above, Green Bay holds the edge of rankings over Seattle 4:1. The Packers rank much better in rushing offense, total offense, rushing defense, and scoring defense vs. Seattle’s ranking in each department. However, the biggest discrepancy is Seattle’s passing offense vs. Green Bay’s pass defense, 3^rd vs. 21^st. That could be difference in the game on Sunday night considering the Packers had all sorts of issues getting Detroit off the field.

A good article, from ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky, highlights where the Packers can expose Seattle’s defense and take control of the game. The last time HB Josh Jacobs faced Seattle (Week 12 of the 2022 season) he had a career game: 39 touches; 303 yards (7.8 yards/touch); 2 touchdowns. While I’d like to save Jacobs (limit his touches) for the postseason, he’s going to be required to tote the ball a ton for this offense to really hum. Should they ride Jacobs, Green Bay can control the ball and force Seattle into obvious pass situations, which is the Packers’ best bet to defend the pass…

The other way the defense can help itself is continuing to take the ball away. The Packers are tied for 8^th in the NFL with 12 interceptions, while Seattle is also tied for 8^th most in the league with 12 interceptions thrown. There’s an opportunity for Green Bay to take the ball away with the amount of passes QB Geno Smith throws over the course of the game. In addition, Lukas Van Ness has taken advantage of the opportunity presented to him (since trading away Preston Smith) by increasing his pressure rate and is continuing to show improvement – and I believe will only improve with the more reps he receives. The Packers must get after Geno Smith and get him off his spot, consistently, as they’ve given up the 9^th most sacks in the NFL (40).

There’s History…

Green Bay hasn’t won in Seattle since 10/12/2008 (Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter). Every fan will likely remember the recent history, but there are 3 games that stick out in Packers’ lore:

1. “We want the ball and we’re gonna score!”
2. Fail Mary
3. NFC Championship Game choke

For Green Bay to win, either their pass defense must show vast improvement or they generate a few turnovers/big plays. This is a much harder task given that Evan Williams is still in concussion protocol and Jaire Alexander is OUT (again), leaving their secondary depleted. It doesn’t help that CB Eric Stokes seems to be just a dreadful 1^st round draft pick as he had a great rookie season, but was never able to return to form (let alone improve) following an injury in his sophomore season. The pass rush and secondary must come to play along with the offense putting up touchdowns to help this team beat a hungry, dangerous team on the road in prime time where a bunch of fluky crap happens.

Jaire Alexander

Both an enigma in personality and availability, Jaire Alexander is without question one of the NFL’s top corners when he’s on the field. Unfortunately for the Green Bay Packers, he’s only played 77 games (of a potential 114) since being drafted in the 1^st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. What shouldn’t be ignored is he’s yet to miss a playoff game (6 for 6) and has played in game-changing form in each of those games. There’s a chance that Matt LaFleur and the Packers are being overly cautious with Jaire and resting him to ensure he’s as healthy as can be for the playoffs considering they’re almost essentially guaranteed a playoff spot with just 1 more victory this season. The challenge comes with his future at 1265 Lombardi Ave. as he’s under contract for another 2 seasons (2025 and 2026), but Green Bay has an “out” should they want to move in a different direction since he’s not reliable to be available…I’d keep him as finding a great corner is harder than finding a great QB, but if you’re not available…

Prediction Time

This will likely be a close game and it’s tough to call, but let’s hope the Packers get their most-impressive win of the season tonight…

Season: 11-2
Overall: 103-68