Review – Packers 30, Dolphins 17

Given all of the injuries at key positions Green Bay played about as complete a game as one could ask. While only scoring 6 points in the 2^nd half, had the correct call been made on the deep shot to Watson in the 4^th quarter, and the personal foul on Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay likely scores an additional 11 points (+4 on the TD vs. the field goal and converts a TD instead of punting on that drive. A final of 41-17 looks a helluva lot different than 30-17, but alas those plays/non-PI calls will happen, and yet Green Bay overcame them and completely outplayed Miami in every facet of the game.

Since the Bye Week, Green Bay has won 3 consecutive games and Jordan Love has played about as well as any QB in the NFL during this stretch. Love has completed 47 of his 68 pass attempts (69.1%), for 698 yards, 5 TDs and just 1 INT for a QB Rating of 120.8. That’s MVP-type production, and there has been a smattering of drops by open targets in each of these games. Should the Packers (mainly Dontayvion Wicks) clean up these drops, Green Bay will resemble the unstoppable force they showed to be late last season.

In addition to Love playing well, Josh Jacobs has really stepped up his play which unsurprisingly coincides with the offense running through him as the major focal point. While he was stymied by the Dolphins in the run game, Jacobs still produced getting 23 touches for 117 yards and another TD. Jayden Reed maximized his minimal touches, gaining just 47 yards on 4 touches, but finding the end zone twice.

The defense played well enough to win, with the key being they held Miami to only 17 points. They accomplished this by allowing only 39 yards rushing on 14 attempts (2.8 avg.) and coming up with a key goal line stand when it was only a 2-score game (27-11) with 9:33 left in the game. Had Miami scored there, at minimum it would’ve been a 10-point game with plenty of time left however, Green Bay stuffed them on 2^nd down, forced an incompletion on 3^rd down, and got a sack on 4^th down. A great goal line stand against a very good offense that had little resistance marching up and down the field throughout the game.

Concerns From The Game

1^st – There were still far too many penalties, one of which essentially took a TD off the board, along with giving Miami second chances and stalling momentum on drives that could’ve made this an easier win than it ended up being.

2^nd – when the defense didn’t get pressure on Tua, Miami receivers had plenty of space in the middle of the field for much of the game. The Dolphins converted only 4 of 14 third downs, but went for it on 4^th down five times, converting 3 of those. Essentially, Miami went 9-14 on 3^rd downs (64.3%), which simply can’t happen. Sure the 4^th down stops came at crucial times, but a penalty wiped out a FG attempt and Miami converted the 4^th down, for example.

Lastly – Green Bay has been much improved in the Red Zone on offense, but still needs to find a way to convert those to TDs vs Field Goals. One of which was that Elgton Jenkins personal foul. It would’ve been 4^th & Goal from inside the 1-yard line, but instead were forced to kick the field goal after the penalty. These are very correctable mistakes and there have been fewer during the win streak, but these need to vacate the Packers’ stat sheet if they want to beat the top teams on the road in the playoffs.

Week 14: (9-3) Packers @ (11-1) Lions

Current Standing

Detroit currently sits as the 1-seed in the NFC Playoff Picture while Green Bay resides in the 6^th spot behind Minnesota (10-2), and having already lost to each of these opponents, it’s essentially a must-win game for Green Bay if they have any hopes in winning the division, let alone obtaining the lone bye in the NFC.

Detroit has looked beatable in two of their last 4 games, having beaten Houston after throwing 5 interceptions and needing a Bears clock meltdown to come away with a victory over the choke-ridden Bears. If Green Bay can limit the penalties, not turn the ball over, and do a better job at the run game with Jacobs than they fared on Thanksgiving night, Green Bay has a real shot at winning this game.

Speaking to that, here’s a great explanation, while short, of Chris Canty explaining why he believes the Packers may be the best team in the NFL.

As you can see, Detroit is a juggernaut of an offense, ranking in the top 5 of every category, including 5^th in time of possession. They can be had on defense, especially in the pass game. Their run defense is great as they’re usually out to a big lead and their opponents vacate the run and pass to get back into the game. However, keeping with the run is the best method to come back. It may take longer to score, but if a defense has to defend both the pass and run it increases the likelihood of actually scoring a TD which is the first goal. Green Bay should be able to move the ball on Detroit and if they’re able to jump out to a lead, like Houston did, they can generate some turnovers and must score touchdowns to put this team away as they can score from anywhere on the field at any time.

With the return of Romeo Doubs on offense the Packers should be able to exploit the Lions’ secondary and attack with Josh Jacobs to keep Jared Goff off the field. If Jaire Alexander is able to return that will give Green Bay’s defense a significant jumpstart. With Jaire on the field, they’re able to be a bit more aggressive in their coverages allowing for more pressures and a higher chance at mistakes and negative plays by the Lions. If Green Bay can keep Sonic & Knuckles (Gibbs & Montgomery) in check, like they did vs. Miami last week, the Packers will be in control of the game and should be able to dictate the outcome. If both offenses get rolling early and often, the crowd of Ford Field and the assertive nature by Detroit likely will be the difference in the game.

How Can Green Bay Win?

Control the clock, and you control the game. Take the shots when they’re there, otherwise take the checkdowns as the Lions are savaged with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and won’t be able to cover everything at every level. If the Packers are able to get the ground game working early, that’ll open the entire field up for their taking and Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job of exposing defenses during this win streak.

Here’s a good synopsis from jsonline.com writer, Ryan Wood…

Prediction

The Lions have an opportunity to eliminate the Packers from the division, realistically speaking (not formally), and have shown the mindset to stomp on teams’ necks when the opportunity presents itself. It’ll be a raucous environment on Thursday Night Football, and Green Bay will need to get the crowd out of it early by scoring touchdowns on long, extended drives. While the Packers boat-raced Detroit on Thanksgiving last year, the Lions have won 5 of the last 6 matchups. While I think the Packers can win, and if they play well for all 4 quarters, think they will win, I believe Detroit makes just enough plays to pull this one out.

Season: 10-2
Overall: 102-68