Green Bay played their most complete game of the season – at least vs. a worthy opponent – by getting out to a perfect start. The Packers set the tone off their first 2 drives of the game by running 18 plays for 143 yards, taking 10:30 off the clock and scoring 14 points on them…absolutely beautiful.

The Packers were able to stick with the run game gaining 140 yards on 34 rush attempts (4.1 avg.), and controlled the game from the onset. QB Jordan Love didn’t have an incompletion until the 3^rd drive and even at that the pass was right there and had Doubs picked it up in the air, it would’ve been a TD.

The other player that flew under the radar was Christian Watson. #9 had 3 receptions for 56 yards plus a huge pass interference penalty for another 39 yards. Essentially finishing with 4 grabs for 95 yards…he really stresses the defense with his speed and when he shows a knack for catching the ball – as he did on that sideline throw – he’s a weapon.

In the postgame locker room speech, Head Coach Matt LaFleur gave out two game balls:

1. Romeo Doubs: 3 catches; 40 yards; 2 TD (he too had a PI for 34 yards, and didn’t see his other target which would’ve been another TD).
2. Edgerrin Cooper: 7 tackles; 2 tackles for loss; 1 sack; 1 INT
   1. Cooper played his best game as a pro and this is why many have wanted him playing all season long. He can cover the pass and rush the passer creating havoc in the backfield.

Another player who’s performed fairly well for his expectations this season has been Keison Nixon. While known as a solid kick returner, he’s filled in admirably for the Packers in their secondary. He made a few plays that aren’t memorable, but during the game he shows his solid tackling ability. That’s a huge part of this defense is limiting YAC (yards after catch), and he’s been very solid all year with this.

Also, while I’m not a huge fan of PFF (Pro Football Focus), they have solid ratings from time to time and when they align with what my eyes tell me, it’s worthwhile to share. I always thought Carrington Valentine was our #2 corner coming into the season (behind Jaire Alexander) and am happy to see him get a ton more snaps, he showed it against Seattle. He had a pass defensed in the red zone that he could’ve intercepted, then on the very next play dropped off his man in zone coverage and picked off his 1^st pass in the NFL. Valentine getting these crucial snaps in big games can only help Green Bay for a deep playoff run.

Current Standing

The top 3 teams in the NFC didn’t change, however Minnesota clinched a playoff berth with the Packers victory over Seattle, then went on to crush Chicago to stay 2 games ahead (and own the tiebreaker) of Green Bay. Should the playoffs begin today, Minnesota would travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams, Washington would head to division rival Philadelphia to face the Eagles, and the Packers would meet up with the red-hot Buccaneers in Tampa.

As for New Orleans, they started the season as hot as anyone in football, blasting the Panthers in Week 1, 47-10, then boat raced the Cowboys 44-19 in Week 2. Since then, they lost 7-straight, got their Head Coach fired, and currently sit at 5-9 with only a -3-point differential (thanks to those first 2 weeks). While technically still alive for a playoff spot, the Saints are in shambles and don’t resemble a team fighting for its playoff lives. This is a good team for Green Bay to face to “keep the momentum rolling” heading into a huge matchup next week (mainly for the 5-seed in the NFC) in Minneapolis.

Matchup

On paper, this is an epic mis-match. Green Bay “shouldn’t” have any issues taking it to this team. However, that’s why they play the game… The Packers outrank the Saints in every category other than giving the ball away, which Green Bay has vastly improved with Jordan Love not tossing picks. The Packers have lost a fumble in each of the last 2 games, and that must improve as turnovers are absolute killers in the postseason.

New Orleans may be missing some of their playmakers which will give them an opportunity to build for 2025, but they do have some quality players on this team…mainly Alvin Kamara (HB #41) and a young stud Kool-Aid (yes his real name) McKinstry (CB #14) – but both are listed as QUESTIONABLE to play. In addition to them not being good, they’re also banged up and as long as the Packers treat this like they did Seattle, they should obliterate them in every facet of the game. Keep winning the time of possession, turnover battle, and penalties and the Packers should come finish off Week 16 on Monday Night Football with an 11-4 record.

Prediction

This may have been one of, if not the, most one-sided officiated games I’ve ever seen. By count, the Lions benefitted, at least, 15 points from the zebras – the officials dictated the outcome of the game. With that being said, the better team still won.

Green Bay can’t start the game with Punt, Punt, and Fumble on their first 3 drives, falling behind 10-0, against one of the NFL’s top teams, especially on the road and expect to win. The deciding factor in the game was the defense getting absolutely torched in the throw game, especially on play-action and the screen game. The 3 phases the Defense must not allow, Detroit mastered and executed at a Super Bowl-winning level:

1. Play Action
2. 3^rd down conversions
3. 4^th down conversions

Play Action – Jared Goff’s stat line on play action was 14/18 (77.8%), 149 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, for a QB Rating of 119.2. That simply is unacceptable for a defense that’s striving to win a Lombardi Trophy. Detroit also converted 7-15 (46.7%) of 3^rd downs, which would put them 2^nd in the NFL if that was their season-long conversion avg. When you incorporate 4^th downs, Detroit was successful on 4 of their 5 fourth down attempts. Essentially putting them at 11-15 on 3^rd down conversions, with two of those resulting in touchdowns. The defense must be better, both in the pass rush and coverage. Missing Jaire Alexander (more on him later), Edgerrin Cooper, and Evan Williams definitely played into this.

What to Take From this Game

After sleeping on it for a few nights, Green Bay is still a full year ahead of schedule (rebuilds typically take 2-3 years to begin competing, the Packers did this in Year 1, at least a full year ahead), however it felt like the season was over for 1 reason. They couldn’t beat Detroit in ideal conditions on 7 days’ rest with Detroit missing their two beasts on the D-line, and Green Bay couldn’t run the ball…Sure Green Bay was missing guys too; however, everyone is beat up by December and very rarely in full health come postseason. The silver lining is Green Bay is still young (youngest in the NFL) and will only improve, but time’s running out.

Green Bay also needs to do a much better job of Time of Possession…the Packers currently rank 15^th in the NFL, but having the 5^th most rushing yards in the NFL, that ranking should be towards the top-10 helping their defense even more.

Current Standing/Situation

Green Bay currently sits in the 6^th seed, still, behind Minnesota for the highest Wild Card seed and are essentially eliminated from the Division title and the highly-coveted 1-seed. It would still behoove Green Bay to win that 5^th-seed as they’d face the worst Division winner in the Wild Card game and keeping away from Detroit as long as possible. There’s actually an outside shot they could host the NFC Championship game should Washington (currently the 7^th seed) upset Philadelphia and Detroit to make the title game.

Seattle sits atop the NFC West (3-seed) with the Rams lurking, and should Green Bay beat Seattle, the Rams would overtake the lead in the division. This is a monumental game for Seattle as they’re 8-5 and falling to 8-6 likely would put them on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

Matchup: Green Bay @ Seattle

Of the standings listed above, Green Bay holds the edge of rankings over Seattle 4:1. The Packers rank much better in rushing offense, total offense, rushing defense, and scoring defense vs. Seattle’s ranking in each department. However, the biggest discrepancy is Seattle’s passing offense vs. Green Bay’s pass defense, 3^rd vs. 21^st. That could be difference in the game on Sunday night considering the Packers had all sorts of issues getting Detroit off the field.

A good article, from ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky, highlights where the Packers can expose Seattle’s defense and take control of the game. The last time HB Josh Jacobs faced Seattle (Week 12 of the 2022 season) he had a career game: 39 touches; 303 yards (7.8 yards/touch); 2 touchdowns. While I’d like to save Jacobs (limit his touches) for the postseason, he’s going to be required to tote the ball a ton for this offense to really hum. Should they ride Jacobs, Green Bay can control the ball and force Seattle into obvious pass situations, which is the Packers’ best bet to defend the pass…

The other way the defense can help itself is continuing to take the ball away. The Packers are tied for 8^th in the NFL with 12 interceptions, while Seattle is also tied for 8^th most in the league with 12 interceptions thrown. There’s an opportunity for Green Bay to take the ball away with the amount of passes QB Geno Smith throws over the course of the game. In addition, Lukas Van Ness has taken advantage of the opportunity presented to him (since trading away Preston Smith) by increasing his pressure rate and is continuing to show improvement – and I believe will only improve with the more reps he receives. The Packers must get after Geno Smith and get him off his spot, consistently, as they’ve given up the 9^th most sacks in the NFL (40).

There’s History…

Green Bay hasn’t won in Seattle since 10/12/2008 (Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter). Every fan will likely remember the recent history, but there are 3 games that stick out in Packers’ lore:

1. “We want the ball and we’re gonna score!”
2. Fail Mary
3. NFC Championship Game choke

For Green Bay to win, either their pass defense must show vast improvement or they generate a few turnovers/big plays. This is a much harder task given that Evan Williams is still in concussion protocol and Jaire Alexander is OUT (again), leaving their secondary depleted. It doesn’t help that CB Eric Stokes seems to be just a dreadful 1^st round draft pick as he had a great rookie season, but was never able to return to form (let alone improve) following an injury in his sophomore season. The pass rush and secondary must come to play along with the offense putting up touchdowns to help this team beat a hungry, dangerous team on the road in prime time where a bunch of fluky crap happens.

Jaire Alexander

Both an enigma in personality and availability, Jaire Alexander is without question one of the NFL’s top corners when he’s on the field. Unfortunately for the Green Bay Packers, he’s only played 77 games (of a potential 114) since being drafted in the 1^st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. What shouldn’t be ignored is he’s yet to miss a playoff game (6 for 6) and has played in game-changing form in each of those games. There’s a chance that Matt LaFleur and the Packers are being overly cautious with Jaire and resting him to ensure he’s as healthy as can be for the playoffs considering they’re almost essentially guaranteed a playoff spot with just 1 more victory this season. The challenge comes with his future at 1265 Lombardi Ave. as he’s under contract for another 2 seasons (2025 and 2026), but Green Bay has an “out” should they want to move in a different direction since he’s not reliable to be available…I’d keep him as finding a great corner is harder than finding a great QB, but if you’re not available…

Prediction Time

This will likely be a close game and it’s tough to call, but let’s hope the Packers get their most-impressive win of the season tonight…

Season: 11-2
Overall: 103-68

Review – Packers 30, Dolphins 17

Given all of the injuries at key positions Green Bay played about as complete a game as one could ask. While only scoring 6 points in the 2^nd half, had the correct call been made on the deep shot to Watson in the 4^th quarter, and the personal foul on Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay likely scores an additional 11 points (+4 on the TD vs. the field goal and converts a TD instead of punting on that drive. A final of 41-17 looks a helluva lot different than 30-17, but alas those plays/non-PI calls will happen, and yet Green Bay overcame them and completely outplayed Miami in every facet of the game.

Since the Bye Week, Green Bay has won 3 consecutive games and Jordan Love has played about as well as any QB in the NFL during this stretch. Love has completed 47 of his 68 pass attempts (69.1%), for 698 yards, 5 TDs and just 1 INT for a QB Rating of 120.8. That’s MVP-type production, and there has been a smattering of drops by open targets in each of these games. Should the Packers (mainly Dontayvion Wicks) clean up these drops, Green Bay will resemble the unstoppable force they showed to be late last season.

In addition to Love playing well, Josh Jacobs has really stepped up his play which unsurprisingly coincides with the offense running through him as the major focal point. While he was stymied by the Dolphins in the run game, Jacobs still produced getting 23 touches for 117 yards and another TD. Jayden Reed maximized his minimal touches, gaining just 47 yards on 4 touches, but finding the end zone twice.

The defense played well enough to win, with the key being they held Miami to only 17 points. They accomplished this by allowing only 39 yards rushing on 14 attempts (2.8 avg.) and coming up with a key goal line stand when it was only a 2-score game (27-11) with 9:33 left in the game. Had Miami scored there, at minimum it would’ve been a 10-point game with plenty of time left however, Green Bay stuffed them on 2^nd down, forced an incompletion on 3^rd down, and got a sack on 4^th down. A great goal line stand against a very good offense that had little resistance marching up and down the field throughout the game.

Concerns From The Game

1^st – There were still far too many penalties, one of which essentially took a TD off the board, along with giving Miami second chances and stalling momentum on drives that could’ve made this an easier win than it ended up being.

2^nd – when the defense didn’t get pressure on Tua, Miami receivers had plenty of space in the middle of the field for much of the game. The Dolphins converted only 4 of 14 third downs, but went for it on 4^th down five times, converting 3 of those. Essentially, Miami went 9-14 on 3^rd downs (64.3%), which simply can’t happen. Sure the 4^th down stops came at crucial times, but a penalty wiped out a FG attempt and Miami converted the 4^th down, for example.

Lastly – Green Bay has been much improved in the Red Zone on offense, but still needs to find a way to convert those to TDs vs Field Goals. One of which was that Elgton Jenkins personal foul. It would’ve been 4^th & Goal from inside the 1-yard line, but instead were forced to kick the field goal after the penalty. These are very correctable mistakes and there have been fewer during the win streak, but these need to vacate the Packers’ stat sheet if they want to beat the top teams on the road in the playoffs.

Week 14: (9-3) Packers @ (11-1) Lions

Current Standing

Detroit currently sits as the 1-seed in the NFC Playoff Picture while Green Bay resides in the 6^th spot behind Minnesota (10-2), and having already lost to each of these opponents, it’s essentially a must-win game for Green Bay if they have any hopes in winning the division, let alone obtaining the lone bye in the NFC.

Detroit has looked beatable in two of their last 4 games, having beaten Houston after throwing 5 interceptions and needing a Bears clock meltdown to come away with a victory over the choke-ridden Bears. If Green Bay can limit the penalties, not turn the ball over, and do a better job at the run game with Jacobs than they fared on Thanksgiving night, Green Bay has a real shot at winning this game.

Speaking to that, here’s a great explanation, while short, of Chris Canty explaining why he believes the Packers may be the best team in the NFL.

As you can see, Detroit is a juggernaut of an offense, ranking in the top 5 of every category, including 5^th in time of possession. They can be had on defense, especially in the pass game. Their run defense is great as they’re usually out to a big lead and their opponents vacate the run and pass to get back into the game. However, keeping with the run is the best method to come back. It may take longer to score, but if a defense has to defend both the pass and run it increases the likelihood of actually scoring a TD which is the first goal. Green Bay should be able to move the ball on Detroit and if they’re able to jump out to a lead, like Houston did, they can generate some turnovers and must score touchdowns to put this team away as they can score from anywhere on the field at any time.

With the return of Romeo Doubs on offense the Packers should be able to exploit the Lions’ secondary and attack with Josh Jacobs to keep Jared Goff off the field. If Jaire Alexander is able to return that will give Green Bay’s defense a significant jumpstart. With Jaire on the field, they’re able to be a bit more aggressive in their coverages allowing for more pressures and a higher chance at mistakes and negative plays by the Lions. If Green Bay can keep Sonic & Knuckles (Gibbs & Montgomery) in check, like they did vs. Miami last week, the Packers will be in control of the game and should be able to dictate the outcome. If both offenses get rolling early and often, the crowd of Ford Field and the assertive nature by Detroit likely will be the difference in the game.

How Can Green Bay Win?

Control the clock, and you control the game. Take the shots when they’re there, otherwise take the checkdowns as the Lions are savaged with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and won’t be able to cover everything at every level. If the Packers are able to get the ground game working early, that’ll open the entire field up for their taking and Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job of exposing defenses during this win streak.

Here’s a good synopsis from jsonline.com writer, Ryan Wood…

Prediction

The Lions have an opportunity to eliminate the Packers from the division, realistically speaking (not formally), and have shown the mindset to stomp on teams’ necks when the opportunity presents itself. It’ll be a raucous environment on Thursday Night Football, and Green Bay will need to get the crowd out of it early by scoring touchdowns on long, extended drives. While the Packers boat-raced Detroit on Thanksgiving last year, the Lions have won 5 of the last 6 matchups. While I think the Packers can win, and if they play well for all 4 quarters, think they will win, I believe Detroit makes just enough plays to pull this one out.

Season: 10-2
Overall: 102-68