In the latest installment of the oldest rivalry in the NFL, Green Bay travels to Soldier Field in search of their first divisional win of the season. The Packers lead the all-time series between these two rivals, 107-95-6, winning the last 10 matchups. The Bears have lost three straight games since starting the season 4-2 while Green Bay is coming off their bye week having dropped a sloppily-played game to Detroit in Week 9. Should Green Bay want to contend for the division title and perhaps an outside shot at the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs, they’ll likely have to win the rest of their remaining games assuming Detroit will drop another two games outside of their next matchup in Week 14 on Thursday Night Football. This begins the long stretch towards The Tournament to contend for the Lombardi Trophy, and hopefully the Packers will emulate their strong 2^nd half of the season from a year ago and start strong coming off the bye.

Matchup

Based on the rankings above, it’s apparent where Green Bay has the advantage…the run game. Chicago is 24^th in the NFL in rush offense, as well as 24^th in the league in rush defense. Those are some of Green Bay’s strong suits. The Packers are 3^rd in rush offense in the NFL and 10^th in defending the run, and have improved over the last few weeks in that department. Where Green Bay has struggled, as I wrote last week, is in securing the football and taking it away. The Packers need to get back to their way of taking the ball away and converting those to touchdowns. They do that, and they’re back to one of, if not the, strongest teams in the NFL. Chicago has done a solid job in each of those categories ranking T-7^th in takeaways and 6^th in giving it away. Should Chicago want to get back on track and upset Green Bay, they’ll likely have to lead the turnover department, as well as time of possession and penalties (and yardage) assessed. The gameplan seems obvious for the Packers – run the ball, early and often!

Bye Did Some Good?

The Packers got very healthy while off on their bye week, essentially getting everyone back other than TE Luke Musgrave. They did however, see a setback in rookie running back Marshawn Lloyd, who was cleared to practice and anticipated to play before suffering appendicitis on Friday at practice (a non-football injury).  The other notables returning to the field were stud corner Jaire Alexander, rookie sensation Evan Williams, and reliable snapper at center, Josh Myers. These additions alone may have been the difference in losing to Detroit 2 weeks ago, so to get them back is a huge step in the right direction for this team. Availability is the most important talent and can’t be understated it’s importance in December and January.

Getting Dontayvion Wicks rolling again is essential for the Packers, and this week vs. a solid Chicago pass defense is as good a time as any. Wicks has shown to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in route-running by being able to get open as much as any player along with creating the greatest separation from his cover guy throughout the entire NFL. Getting him back in rhythm with Jordan Love will help each guy, not only their stats, but with putting games out of reach as they were able to do so in a few games late in the season in 2023. Tom Silverstein of jsonline.com had a solid article talking about the relationship between Love and Wicks and how they can regain their connection from 2023.

Who Are the Bears?

They’re still a poorly run organization, from the top down. It was clear from the onset of this offseason, at least to me, that this team didn’t really improve from last season. The defense essentially was kept the same, and while it’s “good” there are still some holes and the offense… As for the offense, the fan base (as always) talks as if they’re the Patriots with prime Tom Brady at the helm, still has glaring issues. Mainly the offensive line, which is still one of the worst in the NFL and it’s rearing its ugly head these last few weeks. During their 3-game losing streak, Chicago has given up 18 sacks (6/game) for 122 yards, has run 189 plays for only 690 yards (230 yards/game) and scored a combined 27 points (9 points/game). That’s abysmal, even for a “bad offense.”

While many say “Chicago is ruining Caleb Williams,” is there a chance he’s just not that good? Sure he won a Heisman Trophy and put up big numbers in college, but this is the NFL and collegiate production doesn’t necessarily translate to the man’s league. There are 3 quarterbacks I’d like to throw in the mix, with one of them being Caleb and let’s see if you can find the difference between them….

• QB 1: 64%; 212.2 yards; 1.28TD; 0.74INT; 87.2RAT
• QB 2: 60.3%; 175.6 yards; 1.05TD; 0.79INT; 82.8RAT
• QB 3: 60.5%; 198.3 yards; 1.00TD; 0.56INT; 81.0RAT

Que The Office meme picture of Pam saying “They’re the same picture.” In order, these quarterbacks are Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields, and Caleb Williams. Now before you say, “Yes, but once Mitch and Fields left, they improved!” Not really, since leaving here are the stats of each QB:

• Mitch: 64.4%; 241.5 yards; 1.0TD; 1.25INT; 77.8RAT – avg. over 8 starts
• Fields: 66.3%; 184.3 yards; 0.83TD; 0.17INT; 93.9RAT – avg. over 6 starts

While Fields has improved his numbers, those games were managed in a method of backup QB play, much like the Packers with Malik Willis. Ball control and stifling defense, for Pittsburgh. That’s essentially what these QBs are and seem to be. Caleb may improve (very likely given he’s a rookie with “generational talent), but there were a few people that thought he’s already at his ceiling…

Chicago has fired their Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron, after the latest atrocity Chicago refuses to fix the actual problem and slaps a Band-Aid on the open wound that requires major surgery…this could give the Bears a short-term boost, and put them in a spot that may give some false hope. While I could go down the path of Chicago beating Green Bay this week and winning a couple of more games for the remainder of the season is a GOOD thing for the Packers, I won’t as Chicago is likely to screw up the next 2-3 years anyway.

Prediction

Season: 7-2
Overall: 99-68