Month: September 2024

It’s a Big One

Posted on by nzurich9

First things first, let’s review the Packers excellent win in Nashville this past Sunday. Malik Willis executed to near perfection, again. He threw for 202 yards completing 13 of his 19 pass attempts (68.4%) and a TD to Emmanual Wilson. Willis also added 73 yards on the ground on just 6 attempts, along with a TD on the game’s first drive. The ole saying goes Just try to win half of your games with your backup. That would keep the team afloat until the starter returns. If Willis plays this Sunday and Green Bay loses, he’d still have accomplished his job by winning 2 of 3.

Much of the reason the Packers were able to win both of Willis’ starts is due to the defense. These last two weeks, the Packers have surrendered 12 points/game. That’s more than enough to get the job done, even with a backup quarterback. In those 2 games, the Packers’ defense has forced 6 turnovers, 7 punts, and 2 turnovers on downs out of 21 total drives. Meaning the Packers are allowing opponents to score on only 28.6% of their drives. They’re only scoring touchdowns on 14.3% (3 TDs) of those drives. While that’s a little nerdy, another way to look at it would be Points per Drive. Green Bay, the last 2 weeks, have yielded 1.1 points/drive, while scoring 2.3 points/drive. Ideally, as an offense, you want that number closer to 3 (ala a Field Goal every drive) as that’d put you close to 30-36 points per game, a healthy number.

Speaking of the defense, the pass rush came alive, as we expected them to facing Will Levis. Levis is mobile-enough, but not in the same class as Jalen Hurts or Anthony Richardson. The Packers pressured Levis almost all game and sacked him 8 times for a total loss of 56 yards. Don’t expect 8 sacks again, as it hasn’t happened for 20 years, but 3-4 sacks a game is a good target to hit, and essentially eliminates an entire drive of a game (acts as a turnover if you will).

Issues?

There are 2 things that stood out to me…first is penalties. The Packers committed 10 penalties for 75 yards. That’s far too many. The Titans only had 2 penalties, albeit crucial on the missed Field Goal attempt by Narveson, resulting in the Wilson touchdown. Left Tackle, Rasheed Walker, keeps finding himself in the doghouse for committing these and killing drives. This must be cleaned up, especially against better quality opponents.

The other issue I noticed after re-watching the Titans game was play action. Tennessee was able to gain significant yardage in the pass game off play action. It seemed the Packers played zone for much of the game, forcing Levis to beat them with accuracy, which he obviously wasn’t able to do. However, versus better quarterbacks, this is what killed the Packers under ex-Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry. The premise is that receivers will be covered quicker in zone and then uncover to wide open spaces, but the idea is the pass rush will get home and either sack the QB or force bad throws by the time the targets uncover. I’d expect a mix of zone and man coverage against Minnesota with Darnold playing well so far and having one of, if not the, top receivers in the NFL – Justin Jefferson – at his disposal.

Welcome a Familiar Face

The Vikings may be the surprise of the NFL, starting the season 3-0, two of those wins coming against quality opponents: San Francisco; Houston. Minnesota had traded up in last year’s draft to select J.J. McCarthy (QB – Michigan) after moving on from Kirk Cousins. McCarthy ended up inuring his knee this preseason and turned to Sam Darnold, a former 1st round pick for the Jets…Darnold finally finds himself in a good setup and is flourishing. The theme for the 2024 NFL season has been Coaching is Paramount. From talented Bryce Young being benched in Carolina, to Caleb Williams in Chicago, Justin Fields in Pittsburgh, hell even Malik Willis in Green Bay – production seems to come from good coaching in good situations.

While Sam Darnold (53/78, 657 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT, 117.3 RAT) is the surprise of the league – although this might’ve always been the best spot for his career to take him…dome, good offensive-minded coach, talent surrounding him, etc. – all eyes will be on former fan-favorite Aaron Jones’ return to 1265 Lombardi Ave. Aaron Jones is still a good human, and he’s leaning into the Vikings fans SKOL chant, just as he did with the Lambeau Leap – he’s a good person and great teammate. However, as soon as the ball is kicked, he’s the enemy, hopefully Packer nation doesn’t forget that…even with his heartfelt message to Packer fans this week

Aside from Jones, who’s averaging 18 touches and 108 yards per game this season, the other threat is obviously wide receiver Justin Jefferson (5 touches, 87 yards, and 1 TD per game so far). I’m not sure if there’s a way to take both guys away from the game, but shadowing Edgerrin Cooper on Jones (all he’s done is flashed and produced in his limited snaps), as he’s a freak athlete for an Inside Linebacker, and mirroring Jaire Alexander on Justin Jefferson, is likely Green Bay’s best shot. Keep in mind, in Week 17 of the 2022 season, Jaire absolutley shut down Jefferson. Jefferson’s stats from that game were 1 catch on 5 targets for 15 yards. I believe Jaire wasn’t even covering Jefferson on the one catch. Alexander screwed him up for the remainder of the season. To quote Wayne Larrivee, “Jefferson missed the flight back to Minnesota after the game because he was locked in prison.”

The Packers’ pass rush also has another opportunity to generate pressure on Sam Darnold. Their offensive line is susceptible to a pass rush. The Vikings have been able to survive it for the first 3 weeks of the season, and Darnold won’t hold onto the ball nearly as long as Will Levis did last week, but pressuring the QB is always a great thing as it’ll generate timing issues and potentially turnover-worthy plays. Zach Kruse on X, had a solid post showing the Vikings’ weaknesses. Should Green Bay be able to get a combination of 6 (sacks + turnovers), and with Jordan Love playing (hopefully), that may be enough to win the game for the Green & Gold. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams played, Love had made epic strides in his game and completely dismantled Brian Flores’ defense, which has shut down the 49ers and Texans these past two week, both very good offenses.

Matchup

The key matchup will be the Vikings’ 2nd ranked rush defense vs. the Packers top-rated rush offense. If Jordan Love ends up playing, the Packers likely won’t be running nearly as much, having run 90 of their 126 offensive snaps the last 2 weeks (71.4%), but setting the tone early by running is never a bad thing. I believe an ideal ratio would be 60:40 pass-to-run, with Love at QB. With passing more, that likely means more offensive snaps, if Green Bay can run 70 snaps this game that would put the rush attemps around 25-30, which would be ideal.

Prediction

Season: 2-1
Overall: 94-67

Brilliant Gameplan, Brilliant Execution

Posted on by nzurich9
Malik Willis (#2) unleashes a pass in the Home-opener vs. Indianapolis. (photo credit: Evan Siegel, packers.com)

Huge credit to newcomer, Malik, Willis, for executing an absolutely brilliant gameplan by Matt LaFleur. When things are tough, simplicity is usually the best method. Reminding me of Bill Belichick’s approach, (paraphrasing) “We attack the other team’s weakness.” Regardless of what you do well, attacking the opponent’s weakness is almost always the best plan. The Colts had given up 213 yards rushing to the Houston Texans in Week 1, and the Packers doubled-down on that approach in Week 2. Green Bay amassed 261 yards rushing on 53 attempts (4.9 avg.), setting the tone quite early and wearing out that defensive front for the remainder of the game. This allowed the offensive line to give Willis a clean pocket on the rare times LaFleur called for a pass, easing the task for the newcomer to execute.

On the times Willis did drop back to pass, passing lanes were there and receivers were open. LaFleur didn’t ask too much of Willis, likely giving him directions to “look for your first 2 open reads, if nothing is there, tuck it and take off.” That was clear to the fan watching the game, and the right gameplan all along. Minimize mistakes/negative plays (turnovers, loss of yardage) and forcing the Colts to beat you instead of beating yourself. All of this is great in theory during the week in prepping for the Colts – none of it works without execution from the offensive line. The OL played absolutely great, aside from Josh Myers’ 2 illegal man downfield penalties wiping out a touchdown and huge gain. The Colts didn’t sack Willis at all and rarely pressured him on his 14+ drop backs.

Josh Jacobs (#8) got in rhythm early and often vs. the Colts. (photo credit: Evan Siegel, packers.com)

Josh Jacobs showed why he was brought in to Lambeau carrying the ball 32 times for 151 yards. It had been some time since a Packers running back was able to handle that type of load…and take over a game by wearing the other team out. He also created many yards of his own, making the OL appear even greater than they were. Jocobs often makes the first man miss, and if there is only 1 defender, that turns into chunk yards, quickly. Explosion runs (12+ yards) are far more demoralizing to a defense than explosion pass plays (20+ yards). as all 11 are involved and running after the ball carrier. This is a glimpse of what we want (need) in January when the weather turns and we need pure ball control.

Turnovers

While Jeff Hafley’s defense has given up plenty of yards, especially on the ground and late in games, his defense does generate turnovers. It’s what you do on offense with those turnovers that often dictates the outcomes of games. The Packers intercepted Anthony Richardson on their 2nd drive of the game, and drove all the way down to the 1 yard line where Jacobs fumbled it into the end zone. Had he held on to that ball, it’s 17-0 and this game is entirely different. Likely a blowout and while we’re excited about the outcome, we’d feel even more confident had the Packers won 23-6 or better! From the 3 takeaways, the Packers scored 0 points, often a recipe for disaster, however that should’ve been 10 points — the aforementioned Jacobs’ fumble, and the other was a missed Field Goal. The last turnover came on the last play of the game, but still huge which sealed the victory. All in all, an incredible gameplan, effort, and execution on both sides of the ball resulting in getting in the win-column and getting in a good mood heading into Tennessee.

Matchup

The Titans are an interesting bunch. They too could easily be 2-0, but had QB issues in Week 1 at Soldier Field vs. Chicago and had a blocked punt in Week 2 vs. the Jets. Last week was a back-and-forth game, vs. a very solid defense, and were able to move the ball, but were ultimately held out of the end zone on their last drive of the game. Tennessee received the ball at their own 30 with 4:31 left on the clock, down 24-17. The Jets’ defense held the Titans by sacking Will Levis on a 3rd & Goal from NYJ’s 8 yard line, and forcing an incompletion on 4th & Goal from the Jets’ 14 yard line. This team is tough, and has a solid defense. However, the offenses they’ve faced have had problems of their own, and their QB doesn’t make things easier. The Titans are giving up 24 points/game (24 points in each game, actually) and have struggled to score 17, albeit vs. very very good defenses. The Packers’ defense will need to generate a strong, early, and constant pass rush on passing down to get Levis uncomfortable and force bad throws/decisions, because the Titans’ running game is likely to have success. Generating those turnovers AND SCORING TOUCHDOWNS OFF OF THEM will be paramount. Having Malik Willis’ “Redemption Game” (having being demoted to 3rd string in Tennessee before trading him to Green Bay) would be a great story, Jordan Love playing gives the offense the best chance to convert those turnovers to touchdowns.

The tricky thing about Tennessee, is while I believe their QB, Will Levis, isn’t all that good he has faced possibly the 2 best defenses in the NFL. The Bears and Jets can each cover quite well and get after the quarterback in the pass game. The Jets are also solid vs. the run, so to assume the Packers will have the same kind of success is dangerous. With that, Green Bay has shown the ability to generate turnovers, and Levis will make poor decisions throughout the game – catching those poor decisions will give Green Bay the opportunity to kill Titan drives and put points on the board.

Prediction

Regardless if Jordan Love plays, I think Malik Willis proved to many that he’s more than capable of handling the task from Matt LaFleur and winning a football game. Whether that’s through ground and pound, or through the air, he has the mind, tools, and legs to generate positive plays and is smart enough to keep the ball safe.

Season: 1-1
Overall: 93-67

What Did We Learn?

Posted on by nzurich9
Jordan Love helped off the field after injurying his left leg in the 4th Quarter (source: Doug Benc – AP).

Biggest Item…

Jordan Love’s MCL sprain. Win or Lose, in Week 1, if your star QB gets hurt, potentially for the season, that’s the almost the only item of concern. Love was listed as day-to-day with his MCL sprain. While initially when Matt LaFleur said someting along the lines of “If Love can’t go, Malik will be ready.” That “if” gave Packer Nation a shock of hope, at the very minimum, that the season isn’t over. We’ll see — I believe it’s gamesmanship by the Head Coach to force the Colts to prepare (even at minimum) for Love and to take a little bit of prep time off Malik Willis.

Eagles Game Review

The Packers and Eagles put up quite a bit of offense – each team amassing over 400 yards of total offense, with Philadelphia’s defense outperforming Green Bay’s by just enough to win the game. Love made a couple of crucial mistakes. He missed a few open receivers and threw behind a couple of others. The interception was a bit forced and the offense did not help itself when gifted back to back turnovers by the defense resulting in only 9 points off three Eagles turnovers. If you’ve been following along with me, you know the importance I put on Points off Turnovers. Philadelphia scored 7 off the sole Packers turnover, but that was a pivitol moment in the game and swung momentum completely to Philly’s side. Green Bay had the ball, momentum, and up 2 points with an opportunity to increase the lead to a 2-score game.

Typically, if you win the turnover battle, you win the game. However, the great equalizers are penalties, 3rd down conversions, and red zone efficiency. Neither team was great on 3rd down, but the Eagles committed fewer penalties and fared far better in Red Zone efficiency (25% vs. 50%). That was the difference in the game. On the first drive of the game, the Packers had a 3rd & 6 from the PHI 38, and like we’ve seen so many times with Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love caught Philadelphia with too many men on the field and delivered a touchdown pass to an open Jayden Reed. However, the Packers had too many on the field as well, nullifying the play and having to replay. Just another example of penalties wiping out a huge difference. That one cost the Packers 7 points, and when you lose by 5…

New Look Defense…Looks the Same?

Many fans jumped to the conclusion following the game of “Same ‘ole Packers’ defense.” However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. First thing to consider is Philadelphia may have the most loaded offense in the entire NFL. Their offensive line is top notch, Saquon Barkley is in the prime of his career, Jalen Hurts is very dangerous, their Wide Receivers are solid throughout, and their Tight Ends are in the tops of the league as well. The Packers defense set the tone and gave more than enough for the offense to jump out to an early 21-0 lead. I mentioned the penalty wiping out the Reed TD on the first drive of the game. Here are the Eagles’ first two drives:

  1. INTERCEPTION: 3 plays, -5 yards, 0:54 time of possession (McKinney’s INT gave the Packers the ball at the PHI 19).
  2. FUMBLE: 3 plays, -2 yards, 1:20 possession (Devonte Wyatt’s recovery gave Green Bay the ball on PHI’s 14).

Both of those turnovers only generated field goals. Both drives starting in the Red Zone. Should the Packers have converted those into touchdowns instead of field goals, that’s an additional 8 points. This was my focus throughout the game. Momentum is a huge factor in football and almost impossible to track/chart, but had the Packers gone up 21-0, even 14-0, that sets such a different pace for the reamainder of the game and the defense thrives off that momentum – not just the Packers defense, any defense.

Who Played Well?

Edgerrin Cooper, rookie ILB, lines up for one of his 11 snaps vs. Philadelphia. (Evan Siegel, packers.com).

The Packers rookie linebacker has flashed in camp and came in with high-potential. That seemed to translate in his few opportunities. There are two plays that, I believe, encapsulate the rookie linebacker’s ability. These 4 snaps give a solid look into his value and game-changing ability. He must play more considering Isaiah McDuffie was in “coverage” vs. Saquon Barkley on the Eagels’ first TD of the game. McDuffie is a nice back-up that can help in the run game. Cooper, as seen in some of those clips, can do both, espeically cover.

Jayden Reed had a breakout rookie season and showed signs of progressing even further. He had 2 touchdowns, each an electric play. All this tells me is that he needs to touch the ball as often as possible. He’s truly a game-changer and can take over a game. He proved it as a rookie, and had a phenomonal game. I’ll mention it a third time, he had a 3rd TD (first drive of the game) wiped out by penalty. The kid seems to be a stud, and the Packers have found themselves a great one.

The Colts took on the AFC’s version of the Packers, and had them on the ropes. Indianapolis kept responding to keep the game within a field goal, late. The Texans closed the game out with an 8-play, 25-yard drive that ate up the remaining 2:14 of the game. Houston prevailed with a 29-27 win at Lucas Oil Stadium, but there’s one play that showed what the 2nd-year Colts’ QB can do, a 60-yard bomb to Alec Pierce, a throw that only a few people on the planet can make. His stat line, however gives opportunity to a Packers’ defense to get right. Anthony Richardson completed only 9 of his 19 pass attempts for 212 yards (60 coming on that bomb), with 2 touchdowns and an interception.

Matchup

Indianapolis gave up 213 rush yards to the Texans. Even if Jordan Love can’t go, this is a great indicator that the Colts will have to load the box to stop Josh Jacobs and the Packers rush attack, making things just a bit easier for Malik Willis in the pass game. If Willis is the starter, look for a few end arounds by Reed and Watson to alleviate the interior of the defense and open up running lanes inside for the running backs. The Colts only had the lone turnover, but the Packes MUST capitalize on any/all opportunities when turnovers present themselves. Keep in mind Keison Nixon had a dropped interception that could’ve been taken back to the house for a TD in Brazil. Can’t keep doing that as dropped pick-6’s are essentially giving the opponent a TD if not worse.

Much has been said about the lack of pass rush vs. Philly, however it was clear the game plan was for the Defensive Ends (Gary, Preston, Van Ness, and Enagbare) to contain Hurts in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm, which he “did.” Look for the same with Richardson, who is a great athlete as well and can dice you up with his legs. The difference? He’s not as lethal and accurate as a passer as Hurts, ‘nor does he have the same caliber of weaponry as the Eagles.

Prediction

It’s tough for me to figure out what Willis will do, should he start. He’s definitely capable of producing in this league. He’s a young, smart, and uber-athletic QB with a rifle arm — if he plays within the gameplan and takes some shots at the right times, he can torch teams. However, that is a lot of “ifs.”

Season: 1-0
Overall: 93-66

Week 1: Packers vs. Eagles (Brazil)

Posted on by nzurich9

The Packers travel to Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil to take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a marquee matchup of two playoff teams from a year ago. The Eagles come into a season with quite a bit to prove. They had a lead in the 4th quarter vs. Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII just two years ago and had a let down last year, and the Philly faithful will jump all over everyone should they have another one.

For the Packers, we know the expectations…this team could/should compete for the Super Bowl and are trending properly. While Week 1 in the NFL is a crapshoot and one can hardly take anything from it as a barometer for how good these teams are, this game will likely have an effect on seeding in the NFC come playoff time.

Last Year’s Rankings

The Eagles defense was atrocious last year, ranking 2nd-to-last in pass D and 30th in scoring defense. There’s opportunity for the Packers to get some major points against this Eagles D that hasn’t really improved much in the off-season, but this could lead to a scoring fest, which should favor Green Bay. The issue being the Packers’ rush defense. Philly had a solid rush attack last season and signed a hungry Saquon Barkely this offseason. Teams like to use their new toys, especially early…much like Green Bay with Josh Jacobs, but the difference being Jalen Hurts’ running ability and tush push to gain easy 1st downs. It seems to be an even matchup and will create quite a bit of excitement for the winning team’s fan base.

Players to Watch

The Packers have 2 rookies on defense that should contribute quite a bit over the course of the season, and may come up big in tonight’s contest vs. Philadelphia. Their names, Javon Bullard (#20, pictured below) and Edgerrin Cooper (#56). Bullard earned the starting safety position alongside new free agent Xavier McKinney. Bullard’s ball skill and instinct, coupled with extreme athleticsm gives him the opportunity to be a unique player. Cooper should get rotational snaps, hopefully some tonight, but he too shows the instinct at Inside Linebacker to make a difference in this new look Packer defense. Should be fun to watch these guys grow throughout the season – much alike watching all of the WRs the last couple of seasons.

Prediction

Season: 0-0
Overall: 92-66

105th Season of the NFL

Posted on by nzurich9

The NFL season gets under way on Thursday, Sept. 5th, or should I say, “Chiefs Kingdom’s annual competition commences this Thursday.”? Ever since Tom Brady exited the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs have reigned supreme and can’t seem to be stopped. They’ve won 3 of the last 5 Super Bowls including the last two. No team has won 3 consecutive since the 1965-1967 Green Bay Packers. It’d only be fitting if the Packers were the ones to stop them this year, wouldn’t it?

Who Can Win It This Year?

It’s safe to assume the final four teams from last year are all legitimate contenders for hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this upcoming February. Those teams were the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and the Detroit Lions. Adding to that list, I’d say the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, and Houston Texans.

I don’t give much of a chance to the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, or Philadelphia Eagles as they really have nothing to build off of from last season. Sure a team can come out and surprise us and win it all, but history is the best indicator of the future, and history has shown us that the strongest teams are the ones that build off previous production.

What Does This Mean for Green Bay?

There is much excitement for the Packers in 2024, and justifiably so. The Packers finished the season 7-3, including their postseason. In those games, they looked like a much different team and even in those losses (excluding the Tampa Bay debacle) had a realistic chance to win the game. It’s been well-reported abou the roster changes from last season, with the arrival of Josh Jacobs, which coincided with fan-favorite, Aaron Jones’ departure, along with Xavier McKinney, the Packers have upgraded each of those positions – especially at safety. Maybe the biggest change is the new Defensive Coordinator, Jeff Hafley. Hafley left the head job at Boston College to take over an under-performing defense which has immense talent. His style of play (4-3 defense vs. 3-4) fits the personnel better and his mindset will bring a much-needed change to the Packer secondary. He’s a defensive backs coach by trade and has quite a embarassment of riches with which to work.

Should Jordan Love continue to improve at or near the pace he showed last season – coupled with Hafley getting this defense to perform to a top-7 unit, the Packers could really do some damage this season. It’s not out of the question to think they could wind up with the top seed in the NFC and win the Super Bowl. Keep in mind, they beat the Chiefs in December of last year, and looked great doing so. Most fans will tell you that Brian Gutekunst ridding the roster of Anders Carlson will be a huge difference-maker (and maybe it will be), however those fans seem to forget the Packers had the ball with 1:07 left with all 3 timeouts and Love didn’t come through. Those are the types of drives needed to win playoff games and Super Bowls. Maybe he learned from it, maybe he didn’t. However, the fun for us fans will be watching to see if he did!

As an annual tradition, I went through each game for the 2024 season and picked winners and losers. These are the conference results that came from them. This way every win has an appropriate loss elsewhere so the records even out accordingly. The one that kind of shocked me, when it was all said and done was the 49ers’ record of 11-6. I feel like they’ll fare better, but then again the NFL is tricky and nothing should truly be surprising…almost nothing 🙂

PLAYOFFS

Wild Card Round

Divisional Round

Championship Sunday

In a matchup where both winners get retribution against teams that have stymied them over the past seasons, it creates a matchup of some of, if not the, best fan bases in the NFL.

The Super Bowl in New Orleans, LA will feature the Packers against a strong AFC East opponent, much like Super Bowl XXXI. However, this one doesn’t go Green Bay’s way and the Bills hoist their firt Lombardi Trophy. Should this be the case, many fans will call this a “success,” yet have either no memory or weren’t old enough to fully understand the pain that came with the Super Bowl XXXII loss at the hands of the Broncos. That was the most painful experience as a sports fan for me, and should’ve been for every Packer fan. The amount of anxiety, excitement, and stress that’ll come during those 2 weeks between Championship Sunday and Super Bowl Sunday will be almost unimaginable. Then again, should the Packers win, it could be the beginning of something really special in Titletown – with the youth of this roster coupled with Jordan Love, it’s not out of the question to believe it into existence.