Month: January 2024

Strong Promise

Posted on by nzurich9
Jordan Love escapes the pocket and fires a pass while being chased by 49ers’ edge rusher, Nick Bosa.

The game went almost exactly like the season for the Green Bay Packers. There was a promising start with some mistakes that could’ve really taken a hold of the game – the Savage dropped INT was the game-changer – but then looked like this team was suited for destiny, only for additional mistakes to give it away.

Defending the Kicker

I’m of the few that’ll defend rookie Kicker Anders Carlson, the main reason is this team was crafted to be a contender in 2025, and was continued to be built that way throughout the season. This is holds true for the kicker position. The Packers have had a stable of solid kickers as much as they have Quarterbacks. Carlson has shown the ability to kick long distances with ease, and working to address that would’ve seemed like a desperation move thinking this opportunity (to make a Super Bowl run) won’t happen again – or that it was pure “luck.”

Patience is an under-appreciated asset in professional sports, using it will almost always be the correct method.

Jordan Love

He’s likely to be paid, possibly the largest contract in NFL history, this offseason. However, regardless whether that happens or not, the pressure will be ramped up due to the expectations of everyone now…he’s the guy. The bar that’ll be set is he’ll be expected to be a top 5 quarterback in the NFL for the upcoming years – with the surprising (to some) finish to the season, the 5-year window to win a Super Bowl begins in 2024… how fun is this?!?!

Recap

From a Packer fan perspective, it’s tough to not be frustrated with how this game played out. There were more than ample opportunities to win this game. However, as stated above, this game played out like the season. Green Bay was young, athletic, and super talented…but young… The mistakes added up too much and San Francisco is tough to beat when playing perfect ball, but turning it over, essentially 3 times is giving away too many points. The key mistakes were (ranked in order of importance):

  1. Savage’s dropped pick-6
  2. Love’s mortal sin to end the game
  3. Love’s 1st interception, while on 3rd & long, swung momentum to SF
  4. 4th & 1 not conversion (regardless of spot issue, etc), acted as a turnover

Heading into next season, Green Bay needs to do a much better job at taking the ball away from the opposition. In this monsoon of a game, credit the 49ers for not committing a turnover…yes, Purdy could’ve thrown 3-4 interceptions, but by Green Bay allowing those to become incompletions, that’s the difference in the game.

This game might’ve been the NFC title game. Yes, Detroit is playing well again, but Green Bay went into Ford field on Thanksgiving and blasted the Lions. We’ll see how the Lions fare on the road vs. San Fran, but it just seems like this game, the winner will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. After that, who knows what’ll happen, but this Packers team shows strong promise.

Season: 5-14
Overall: 92-66

Playing Loose

Posted on by nzurich9

If you had fun last Sunday, just wait until this Saturday night should Jordan Love accomplish what Aaron Rodgers never could, beat San Francisco in the playoffs. Green Bay is now officially a full year ahead of schedule, yet has an opportunity to really exorcise some demons…while Brett Favre had little issue with San Francisco, recent memory isn’t so kind — potentially setting up an NFC title game in either Tampa Bay or Detroit…both would suck to lose, but let’s get there first.

Arguably the Best Team in the NFL

As you can see, the 9ers lack weakness, but they have been beaten 4 times in games that mattered. San Fran experienced a 3-game losing streak, but since corrected it, rattling off six consecutive wins. However, there are two games that stick out as to how & why the Packers can win.

  • Oct 23, 2023 – L @ Minnesota, 17-22

Minnesota was able to get good QB play from Kirk Cousins, on primetime nonetheless! The main trend was turnovers and time of possession, both won by Minnesota. The Vikings were able to get only 7 points off 3 turnovers, but one of the turnovers they missed a field goal and the last one ended the game.

  • Dec 25, 2023 – L v Baltimore, 19-33

Much like the loss to Minnesota the Ravens’ defense suffocated Purdy early. Baltimore scored 17 off 5 San Francisco turnovers. That’s actually leaving some points on the table, but it paved the way. The only team that can survive 5 turnovers is Seattle facing Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs…apparently.

Players To Watch

Akin to the Cowboys, San Francisco has a ton of players that could be listed, on both sides of the ball. It’s apparent the Packers will need to generate turnovers to win the game, and they’ve come in short bunches for the 9ers. Somehow, Green Bay’s 28th rush defense will have to slow down the best running back in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey and the 3rd-ranked rushing attack. While Green Bay didn’t stop Dallas from running wild, they did jump out to a lead where the run game used up too much time later in the game for Dallas to comeback. That strategy may be the key to beating San Francisco…jump out to a big, early lead and force San Fran to forego the run game and rely on your MAN COVER corners to keep it in check.

Other potential Game Wreckers:

  • Nick Bosa, #97 DE
  • Fred Warner, #54 LB
  • George Kittle, #85 TE — especially after what Jake Ferguson did in the middle of the defense last week, this could be a problem…

Prediction

Packers 27 (+9.5)
49ers 34

Season: 4-14
Overall: 91-66

Here’s to hoping the trend continues!

Dallas Dismantle

Posted on by nzurich9
Jordan Love and Aaron Jones each took part in obliterating the Dallas defense, each accounting for 3 TDs.

Fast Start

The Packers won the toss and decided to take the ball. To say “that paid off” would be an understatement. While the score was a blowout, many of the plays were extremely close, and kudos to Jordan Love for making just a ton of throws, especially under duress.

The Packers possessions looked like this:

  • Touchdown- 12 plays, 75 yards, 7:52
  • Punt- 6 plays, 28 yards, 2:29
  • Touchdown- 3 plays, 19 yards, 1:28
  • Touchdown- 10 plays, 93 yards, 5:44
  • Touchdown- 5 plays, 75 yards, 2:45
  • Touchdown- 3 plays, 75 yards, 1:36
  • Touchdown- 8 plays, 40 yards, 4:37
  • Punt- 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:05
  • Punt- 3 plays, 3 yards, 1:03
  • End of Game- 1 play, -1 yard, 0:16

After the Packers’ fourth possession (the 10-play, 93 yard TD drive), Darnell Savage had the pick-6 to essentially ice the game…that is until Joe Barry decided to take over.

Credit to Matt LaFleur, not only for game-planning/designing a brilliant scheme, but for sticking with the run throughout the game, even though it wasn’t working. Yes, Aaron Jones had a great game, but the overall rushing attack wasn’t productive (15 rushes for 32 yards, a 2.1 yards/carry avg.). However, it did wear down the defense, and with Love being ON with his throws off play action, the Dallas defense was extra-delayed in attacking the run, even up big in the 2nd half.

Points Off Turnovers

Unlike Aaron Rodgers-led Packer postseason teams, this Green Bay squad scored 14 points off both Dallas turnovers, and they won by 16…imagine that. While LaFleur once said “All gas, no brakes,” he may have pulled his starters a bit early considering the Cowboys had the ball with a chance to pull within 8 points (one score) with just over a minute left – the Packers obviously controlled it throughout, and much to the thanks of Jaire Alexander’s INT. That, not only, kept the momentum on Green Bay’s side, but catapulted them into firm command of the entire game. Turnovers are huge as they guarantee keeping points off the board, but scoring off of them is hallmark of a great team.

Now to the likely Demise of this Packers team…

Dallas had little issue moving the ball. The Cowboys racked up 510 yards on 89 plays. Yes, that’s a ton of plays, 35 (65%) more than the Packers ran. Dallas only punted twice, and the 2 interceptions came on man coverage…the 2nd half, once up 48-16, the Packers played a soft zone, and Dallas obliterated it. From that point, Dallas’ drives resulted in:

  • TOUCHDOWN- 11 plays, 75 yards, 4:29
  • TOUCHDOWN- 4 plays, 91 yards, 1:24
  • DOWNS- 11 plays, 65 yards, 2:06

I’ve written, last year, about how Joe Barry’s defense has typically played better later in the year since joining Green Bay, he relies too much on his players to make plays in zone coverage rather than just play tight man coverage and force the opposing QB to make good, clean accurate throws on time and on target. In zone, you can get checked down to death. Luckily, Dak Prescott was off (he’s also a choke artist, Cowboy fans won’t even argue this) and missed some easy throws coupled with a drop or two by his targets…this is also why wins are a QB stat, because Jordan Love completely pounded the Dallas defense and put the other QB in a spot where he eventually had to play perfect.

Rodeo Ride

Posted on by nzurich9

It’s been a wild ride for Packer Nation. Regardless of your thoughts on this team heading into the season, the Packers have either met or already exceeded preseason expectations…and now they’re playing with House Money.

How’d They Get Here?

Green Bay- talk about a roller-coaster of a season. There were initial glimpses of talent and capabilities with this young team right out of the gate. After starting the season 2-1, and were a play away from beginning 3-0, the Packers found themselves at 2-5 with almost no one thinking Jordan Love was even good, let alone the future of the franchise. However, after surviving Joe Barry’s amazing defensive output vs. easy wins in the Giants and Buccaneers, the Packers are now the 7th seed and seek to become the first 7th seed to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, or just win a game in the postseason.

Dallas- after opening the season in a resounding way, routing the Giants 40-0, the Cowboys kept scoring. They dropped a game vs. the then worst team in the NFL, Arizona Cardinals, and were blasted by the San Francisco 49ers – Jerry’s team kept putting up points, especially at home. Dallas went 8-0 with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points/game. Yes, that includes their final home game vs. Detroit where they won 20-19, on a correctly called illegal touching on the Lions’ 2-point try to win the game.

Significance of this Game…

Green Bay- we’ve already covered this, but the Packers have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Experience is first and foremost, but if Green Bay is somehow able to win this game, the kids will then have had experience of winning a road playoff game – which would be incredible.

Dallas- No team has more pressure (self-inflicted or otherwise) than the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl. The fan base is huge and obnoxious, not the worst, but it’s up there. It’s been well-documented that Dallas hasn’t seen a conference Title game since 1995…so we’re on year 28. To put that in perspective for fans my age, the Packers’ Super Bowl XXXI win in the 1996 season was 29 years after their last one in 1967…yeah, we’re old.

Needless to say, this is a must-win for the Cowboys, especially head coach Mike McCarthy. If Green Bay comes down to Dallas and wins, again, that could potentially end his tenure in Arlington, TX.

Green Bay- Jordan Love has an incredible opportunity to really put his name on the map. He’s already sure to get paid this offseason (current deal runs through next year, but no one has a lame duck Head Coach or starting QB).

Matchup

As you can see, Dallas is better in every category, and have played that way throughout the season. They obliterated bad teams, however they were exposed by the 49ers (42-10) and Bills (31-10). While many people go into deep-dive analytics with DVOA, etc., the Cowboys are just flat out good. However, they only went 3-4 vs. playoff teams this season, while Green Bay finished 3-3. While Dallas has the edge in overall talent and experience, they do come up short in big games, often.

Players to Watch

Aaron Jones owns the Cowboys much in the same as Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Jones has been incredible vs. Dallas in his career, and even had a 4 TD game down there. Tom Silverstein has a solid article highlighting just that, along with a few other areas Green Bay can attack Dallas and pull out the upset.

  • Micah Parsons, LB #11
  • Tony Pollard, HB #20
  • Jake Ferguson, TE #87
  • Ceedee Lamb, WR #88

Prediction

Packers 27 (+7)
Cowboys 31

Season: 4-13 (not my best showing, but picking against us has worked so far…)
Overall: 91-65

House Money

Posted on by nzurich9
Aaron Jones (left) and Jordan Love hug it out in the locker room after their Week 18 Playoff-clinching win vs. the Chicago Bears.

As stated prior, the Packers’ season was already a success. Green Bay found their QB of the future, even if some of us knew this heading into the season, it’s more than evident now. Aaron Jones seemed to be the locker room leader for the entire team, and he put together his best 3-game stretch of his career at the right time – for this team to carry on getting incredible experience.

Love Was Money

In a Gotta Have It game/situation, Jordan Love delivered his best game of his career.

That completion percentage is actually a bit misleading. Of his 5 incompletions, 2 were dropped touchdowns (yes, they should’ve been caught, but weren’t – Melton’s included), and one was a throw away to stop the clock at the end of the first half. So one of his 2 real incompletions was a bad toss up that should’ve been intercepted in the end zone to end the first half…just a brilliant performance.

3rd Down Efficiency

The Packers converted 7 of ten 3rd downs…70% is incredible. Anytime they do that, they’re likely winning as that’s essentially 2 free possessions. It’s also why the game was so short, each team kept the ball in bounds and moving without many incompletions (or penalties). This 3rd down efficiency made up for the lost fumble, which almost swung the game around, and was the only reason the Bears were even in the game in the 2nd half.

Jaire Alexander

Jaire had a great game…which happens when the best man-cover corner in the NFL…plays man coverage. He’s so hard to detect, that even local news reporters have trouble identifying him.

The D-Line Got it Done

The Packers totaled 5 sacks cutting Justin Fields down for 31 yards in those takedowns. The Packers also held the #1 rushing offense (entering the game) to 75 yards on 25 attempts (3.0 yards/rush), which is incredible. Play man coverage, bring a blitzer or two every once in a while, and get Lukas Van Ness more snaps…he plays well and produces when he’s on the field.

All in all, just a solid victory – however, those special teams sure are special…Kicker Anders Carlson will get a lot of the bad rap, but I have a feeling the snapper-to-holder is the crux of the issue, much alike Mason Crosby a few years back when he had issues. Once the Packers fixed that, he ended up being one of the better kickers in the game. I’ll still hold out hope for Carlson, especially since the Packers used a draft pick on him, he almost MUST turn out…however, the highest paid Special Teams Coordinator in the NFL doesn’t seem to be earning his paycheck.

Bear Week…

Posted on by nzurich9

It used to be a thing, when this was a rivalry, which was almost never. The Packers have absolutely OWNED the Bears since Brett Favre’s arrival on the scene in 1992, the Bears owned it prior to that, then Packers, so on and so forth. However, from the trash talk out of Chicago (which is always because they have zero awareness), you’d think this is a huge matchup, akin to 2010, which the Packers won both big ones.

What’s At Stake?

Chicago~ their annual tradition carries on of playing Spoiler. The Bears have a chance to knock the Packers out of the playoffs, much like Detroit did last year. The Bears have won 5 of their last 7, however, not against impressive competition. One of those wins was vs. Detroit, but they’ve been inconsistent the last 8 games, or so. Relatively, Chicago has improved – considering they couldn’t get any worse than starting the year 0-4 and in that fashion, their delusional fanbase (redundant) thinks they’re on the cusp of something, yet they’re torn on whether Fields is the future or not…hopefully for us Packer fans they decide HE IS!

Green Bay~ the Packers are in the exact same scenario as last season…win and you’re in! Coming into the season, the majority of Packer nation wanted to see if Jordan Love was the answer at QB moving forward – he is. The 2nd priority was to get all the youth as many snaps and experience as possible; mission accomplished. Should Green Bay find themselves in the playoffs, they’d be a full year ahead of schedule. Think about Detroit’s rebuild, they traded away Stafford for a King’s Ransom and have built their roster properly. Even then, they missed out on the postseason a year ago and then won the division fairly easily this year – and in Milwaukee Brewer fashion, hung a banner…

Matchup

What stands out is the Bears’ rushing attack vs. the Packers well-known awful rush defense. Green Bay has improved in recent weeks as they’ve jumped out to large leads in their last 2, so both Carolina and Minnesota avoided the rush, but the Packers still were gouged… Look for Chicago to stick with the run to open the pass game, hopefully the Packers carry on their man coverage with blitz looks to generate pressure on Fields, who’s already inaccurate when not under duress. If Green Bay can win the turnover battle, Chicago turns it over quite a bit, but they take it away a ton as well (tied for 3rd in the NFL).

To recap, Chicago runs the ball effectively (even if that’s Fields), which means they hold the ball (2nd in Time of Possession), and they generate a ton of turnovers, which makes up for a below avg. pass defense and scoring defense…this is how they’ve gone 7-9 instead of continuing on in the bottom of the league…

Prediction

To keep up with, when I pick against the Packers they win, theme….

Bears 27 (+3)
Packers 24

Season: 4-12
Overall: 91-64

They Good?

Posted on by nzurich9
Preston Smith (#91) continues to have a great season, seen here getting a QB hit on Vikings’ rookie QB (#16) Jaren Hall.

The Packers had their best showing of the season on Sunday Night Football. The Packers had their season-highs in total yards (470) and time of possession (37:32). Yes those go hand-in-hand, but also an indication they controlled the game throughout – a welcomed sign.

Did Joe Barry Save his Job?

The defense essentially gave up 3 points. The only touchdown surrendered was on the fumbled punt return by 2nd year Nebraska WR Samori Toure, on the first play of the 4th quarter. That set Minnesota on the Packers’ 7 yard line, essentially gifting them a TD. Other than that, the Vikings only had 211 yards of total offense. Would this game have been different had Kirk Cousins started? Absolutely, considering he torched the Packers in their previous matchup prior to tearing his Achilles. Along with that, the Vikings are likely in the 6th seed of the NFC playoffs and Green Bay is fighting with Los Angeles for that 7th and final seed.

Joe Barry could save his job if his defense continues to play like they did last week, but against actual competition – and no, Justin Fields isn’t good either, so any competent defense should shut him down, which they have done, Green Bay included. If the Packers’ defense continues to bring pressure and play man coverage, it’s likely good things will happen as they have the talent and playmakers to do just that. Even with all of that, anything short of the Packers brining the Lombardi Trophy back to its rightful and original home, Joe Barry is gone.

Any Doubters Left?

Jordan Love lofts a pass in the Packers 33-10 victory at US Bank Stadium on Dec. 31, 2023.

Jordan Love’s stat line (24/33, 256, 3/0, 125.3) was indicative of how he’s played over the last several games; incredible. I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to say it…this team is far closer to 13-3 than they are 5-12, which was always the goal going into the season – get the kids reps so they can develop. When they have fun and play together, like any team, they look impressive. They’re going to have hiccups, and out of nowhere, because they’re still young, but it sure seems that Love has put those days behind him. Sure he’ll have bad games, as everyone does, but the basement has risen and he’s become a far more consistently efficient thrower and leader.

Moving forward, there’s an immense opportunity for this young team to get amazing experience a full year ahead of schedule. Should this team make the playoffs (beat Chicago and/or get a bunch of help next week), and hell, even win a road playoff game, who knows how that could propel them for 2024, when 2025 has been the plan for the true window to open…