Packers 29, Lions 22

The Packers decided to come out as aggressive as possible to set the tone, and it worked. Christian Watson was a difference-maker in the 1st quarter, allowing the Packers to build a 14-6 lead after Green Bay’s first 2 possessions. On Detroit’s 2nd possession, that’s where the game was decided, a costly turnover that led to 6 points. That ended up being the play of the game. Building Green Bay’s lead to 20-6 (yet another missed extra point), and keeping the momentum on the Packers’ side for the entirety of the game.

Turnovers~ as always stated, the Packers won that department 3-0, yet only scoring 6 points off the 3, those kept points off the board for Detroit and put them in a funk almost all game. The other item that shouldn’t go unnoticed, was Detroit’s 4th down conversion percentage was 20%. The Lions attempted 5 fourth down conversions (fake punt being one of them), and only converted on 1 – those act as turnovers as well due to the momentous impact they have when the defense makes the stop.

Defensive Issues…~ while the Packers were close to holding Detroit’s 6th ranked scoring offense (entering the game) to under 20 points, they still held them to less than their avg. of 27.2 points, which was huge – thanks to those turnovers. However, the defense still gave up 464 total yards, and 140 yards on the ground with 4.5 yards/carry. This allowed Detroit to win the time of possession battle, hence the turnovers helping in this department to win the game.

They were able to sack Jared Goff 3 times only for a total loss of 8 yards…it was a good enough effort to win, with the difference being the fumble return for a TD.

Watson Came to Play

Watson finished with 5 catches for 94 yards and a game-winning touchdown. He showed on the first drive on the game that he was attacking the ball and great things happen when he does this. He’s a matchup nightmare, and does draw the most double-teams in the NFL (as written about in the last blog), but if he’s able to begin coming up with more contested catches, this could really be something in the making. What many are asking, deservedly so, is for Love to lead Watson more on these deep passes as he had both of the Lions d-backs burnt on the play and a good throw is a walk in TD.

Special Issues

The Packers missed two kicks on Thanksgiving, resulting in leaving 4 points on the field, for the 2nd consecutive game. Somehow this did not come back to bite them, but that would’ve made the drive last week vs. the Chargers a lot less nerve-wracking…being up 27-20 is far different than 23-20. Also, this week, the Packers wouldn’t have gone for 2, so it technically was a 5-point difference. Green Bay should’ve been up 34-14 on the Lions’ final possession, making it a 3-score game which is such a crucial difference in the game of football. The one nice thing the Special Teams did was stuff the fake punt late in the 3rd quarter which allowed Green Bay to bust the game open from 23-14 to 29-14 (had the extra point been made prior, Green Bay could’ve kicked the extra point on this TD to make it a 3-score game and essentially ice it).

Lastly, Love…

This was a key play, but he balled out all game. Love finished with arguably the best game of his young career: 22/32 (68.8%); 268 yards; 3 TD; 0 INT; 125.5 RAT. He played so well that maybe his worst ball was still completed for 53 yards…the underthrow to Watson on the opening play of the game. He needs to keep this going and will need to play well next week vs. a very good and opportunistic Kansas City defense.

What’s At Stake?

The Lions currently sit as the 2-seed in the NFC playoff race. This would guarantee them two home games in the playoffs (assuming they win in Wild Card Weekend). Detroit holds a 2.5 game lead on 2nd place Minnesota, and 2 of their last three games come against the Vikes in the regular season.

Green Bay is coming off a gutsy win against a desperate LA Chargers team, and has an opportunity to inject themselves into the divisional race with a win – kinda. Right now, Green Bay sits as the first team outside the NFC playoffs looking in. They’re 1.5 games back of Minnesota, and is essentially 2+ games back having already lost to the Vikings in Week 8 at Lambeau Field. If Green Bay pulls out a victory at Ford Field, they’ll be 1 game back to Minnesota with Minnesota also holding the tiebreaker.

Previous Meeting

I’m sure everyone recalls Detroit coming into Lambeau on a short week (the other Thursday game) and blasting the Packers 34-20 jumping out to a 27-3 halftime lead. The Lions were able to rack up 211 yards on the ground and David Montgomery completely took over the game early on. Goff didn’t do anything special, and did lead off the game with an interception, but Green Bay only scored a field goal on it and the Lions decided that was enough.

Injuries…Never an Excuse, but…

Thirteen of the players listed on the Packers’ injury report are Day 1 starters. The DNP (Did Not Practice) alone are all key starters: De’Vondre Campbell; Josiah Deguara; Aaron Jones; Luke Musgrave. Deguara seems to be working himself out of a job, however with the injury to Musgrave, the Tight Ends will be Tucker Kraft and Josiah Deguara…and they’ll be used frequently, hopefully. Running backs A.J. Dillon and newly re-acquired Patrick Taylor should get a decent work load in the game to alleviate pressure in the pass game…also, maybe there might be a coupe of shot plays to Watson and Reed to try to make up for lost yardage from Musgrave and Jones being OUT.

Keep It Tight?

The Packers have played six 1-score games this year, with all of those coming down to the last possession. One of the 4 games that wasn’t, was Week 4 vs. Detroit. Look for Green Bay to somehow keep the game close and get another opportunity to win it late — at least that’s the goal for each game this season; learning experiences.

Detroit Shock?

The Lions had a scare against the Chicago Bears, possibly waking them up. However, over their last 4 games, the Lions are giving up an average of 29.0 points/game. The most recent common opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, hung 38 on the Lions. However, that game was in LA, and LA would’ve been close to 34 or more had they not had any drops. That being said, Green Bay is playing fairly well on defense since that Detroit thumping, giving up an average of 17.7 points/game.

Matchup

	GB off	(rank)	vs.	Det D	(rank)
Rush	102.1	21st		89.5	5th
Pass	217.5	19th		223.5	16th
Total	319.6	21st		313.0	9th
Pts	20.2	21st		22.9	22nd
	GB D			Det off
Rush	134.7	28th		136.6	5th
Pass	193.2	7th		263.0	4th
Total	327.9	17th		399.6	2nd
Pts	20.2	10th		27.2	6th
T/O	GB			Det
Takeaways	9	T-29th		12	T-25th
Giveaways	12	T-10th		14	T-16th
Diff.	-3	21st		-2	T-17th
ToP	GB			Det
	28:42	24th		32:08	4th

Detroit ranks considerably better in almost every category (especially overall) than Green Bay. However, maybe the Packers have found some confidence and played loosely in their last game against LA. I keep saying “In order for Green Bay to win, they’ll need to win the turnover and time of possession battles.” With Green Bay’s offensive line being in shambles and just not that good, coupled with injuries to Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson, time of possession may be a lost cause – focus on scoring touchdowns off takeaways.

Packers 26
Lions 31

Season: 4-6
Overall: 91-58

Green Bay gutted out a solid victory against a desperate opponent. While they were aided by the sun “causing” a few drops by the Chargers, the Packers too, had to deal with the sun and had some drops of their own. As consistently stated, the turnover battle ended up being the difference in this game. Green Bay jumped on Ekeler’s fumble early in the 4th quarter. That took at least 3 points off the board for LA, and considering that was 2nd & Goal from the GB 2 yard-line, likely took off 7 points. This is the Chargers, and has been their MO for years. They have immense talent scattered across their roster, but they’re so mistake-prone that they’re a perennial .500 ball club. To quote a good friend of mine, “It sucks to suck.”

The second key of the game, and I always talk about, is time of possession. The Packers won the ToP battle 31:58 to 28:02. That helped their defense stay fresh enough to make two stands on LA’s final 2 possessions – even if Johnston dropped a bomb.

Lastly, it’s being overlooked, but Carrington Valentine (#37) might just be flat out good. Since the Packers traded away Rasul Douglas (or apparently what some fans considered Deion Sanders), Carrington Valentine has allowed 5 receptions on 18 targets, for 64 yards, resulting in a 41.9 passer rating. That’s quite good. Considering he’s a rookie 7th rounder, that’s incredible…and he may improve.

The major issue is the Packers allowed 150 yards on only 24 rush attempts (6.3 yards/carry), with 28 coming on a scramble by Justin Herbert and another 37 on a Preston Smith busted edge containment by Ekeler. Green Bay’s Defensive Coordinator, Joe Barry, is surviving with the Bend but Don’t Break defense which eventually will break against better teams – ala Detroit and Kansas City…the Packers’ next two opponents.

On both of Jordan Love’s touchdown tosses last week, progress should’ve captured the (even inexperienced) eye. Both we longer touch passes on post routes that are nearly impossible to defend, but require a very good throw. The offense looked like it was moving down the field with some rhythm and consistency that’s been missing for essentially the entire season.

Continued Struggles

Steelers 23, Packers 19: the Packers allowed 205 yards rushing on 36 attempts (5.7 yards/carry). That’s trouble for a multitude of reasons. 1. Pittsburgh was able to run the ball at will, and they were leading almost the entire game, taking the ball out of the Packers’ hands. The first two drives of the game, while the first one was bailed out on a defensive pass interference call (which was questionable), Pittsburgh still cut right through the Packers’ defense enroute to the end zone.

The “good” news is Green Bay’s defense held Pittsburgh to 4 of 13 on 3rd downs, which should be good enough to keep you in the game – which was the case. However, the 5 penalties and 2 turnovers ended up being the difference, as it will likely continue to be with an inexperienced team. The other piece of good news, is after the first two Steeler TD drives, the Packers gave up166 total yards on 35 plays over the last 38:08 of the game, surrendering 9 points in that time span.

The progression is beginning to filter through in whom Love targets. For instance, he’s damn near a Pro Bowl QB when targeting anyone but Christian Watson. With that being said, while I’d like to see Watson be far more assertive in attacking the football when thrown his way, he does have an effect on the game as he’s one of the most double-covered wideouts in the NFL based on the chart below:

He is average-ish in separation in single coverage routes, but draw the most-double teams…so there’s something to that. Is that progress? Maybe. However, if he begins attacking the ball and Love is able to lead him a bit more on those sideline throws (especially in the end zone), he could become a premier weapon in the NFL…time will tell.

Week 11: (4-5) Los Angeles Chargers @ (3-6) Green Bay Packers

The Chargers have been notorious for having arguably one of the most talented teams in the NFL for years, especially since Herbert’s arrival in 2020. However, his career record is 29-29. They’re the epitome of mediocre. Very similar to the Packers in sense that they have immense talent, but they just don’t know how to tie wins together. The Packers last year were hampered by old vets and this year the inverse; complete inexperience. The Chargers are far more difficult to figure out. There are many articles highlighting Players To Watch, yet I won’t because you could list 13 players, which begs the question, “Who should we watch out for?”

How is this team so Average?

	LAC Off.	(rank)	vs.	GB Def.	(rank)
Rush	100.8	22nd		133.0	27th
Pass	249.1	8th		187.6	7th
Total	349.9	11th		320.6	11th
Pts	26.6	7th		20.2	T-11th
	LAC Def.			GB Off.
Rush	102.0	12th		102.1	21st
Pass	291.2	32nd		208.9	19th
Total	393.2	31st		311.0	21st
Pts	23.9	24th		19.9	21st
T/O	LAC			GB
Takeaways	15	T-9th		8	T-29th
Giveaways	7	1st		12	T-13th
Diff.	8	T-3rd		-4	T-24th

They aren’t great at running the ball, even though they have one of the better running backs in the NFL (#30 Austin Ekeler), however they can score (7th in scoring offense), so the matchup when Herbert is under center should be fairly even…maybe.

If there ever was a matchup where Love can go off, it’s this one. The Chargers have the worst pass defense and the penultimate total defense. Green Bay should be able to get yards through the air, but LA does have Safety, Derwin James Jr. (#3) and Cornerback, Asante Samuel Jr. (#26) in the defensive backfield and each (especially James) can cause issues in the passing game. Also, as bad as a defense as LA has, they’re T-3rd in turnover differential (+8). Green Bay has been awful in that department since Week 2. Again, as a Packer fan, we’d like to see the Packers finish the season with at least a 0 difference in turnovers, ideally in the positive.

The other item is LA doesn’t possess the ball all that long, much like Green Bay. That’s due to their defense being atrocious. LA ranks 24th with an avg time of possession at 28:48/game where the Packers are up to 26th at 28:20/game.

All in all, until Green Bay proves they can score touchdowns, consistently, it’d be irresponsible for me (or anyone) to pick them to win – that doesn’t mean I don’t think they can win or that I don’t want them to.

Chargers 31 (-3.0)
Packers 23

Season: 4-5
Overall: 91-57

Review~ Packers 20, Rams 3

Albeit against a 3rd string QB, the Packers’ defense did its job. Never allowing the Rams to get past the Green Bay 31 yard line. In doing so, the Packers won the time of possession battle 35:16 to 24:44 – a step in the right direction. Forcing 6 punts and 2 turnovers on downs, that allowed the Packers to keep up with the run game, gaining 184 yards over 38 rush attempts (4.8 yards/rush). This game could’ve been the blowout it should’ve been had the Packers not turned it over twice themselves…both unforced fumbles.

Progress? ~ there were some signs of progress from this young team in the victory over the inferior Rams. ILB Isaiah McDuffie (#58) totaled 7 tackles with 2 tackles for loss, and numerous plays like this.

Another promising player was RG Sean Rhyan (#75), who was able to move All-Pro DT Aaron Donald off his mark multiple times in the run game. He deserves more playing time if he’s able to show this type of effort and production.

Lastly, while he was facing Brett Rypien, Valentine still locked down two stud WRs (Kupp and Nacua) in his opportunity. He’s a rookie corner, and now there’s tape on him from jumping routes. So he’ll have double-moves put on him against Pittsburgh, and moving further. However, he deserves starting reps and with Jaire and Stokes coming off injury hopefully to play the remainder of the year in some form, the Packers could have a very formidable secondary for years to come.

Both Teams Like to Mud the Game Up

While Green Bay doesn’t intentionally like messing the game up, the outcome is quite similar. Pittsburgh has a knack for bringing you down to their level, playing solid defense, and making a big play in the 4th quarter in a tight game. That’s how they’ve amassed 5 wins over 8 games, and pulled out a couple of big wins vs solid opponents this season. Their two big wins have come against the uber-talented Cleveland Browns and (what looks like) the best team in the NFL, Baltimore. The man pictured above is arguably the MVP of the NFL this season as he makes such a difference on the defensive side of the ball that it directly impacts the outcomes of games.

	GB O	(rank)	vs.	Pit D	(rank)
Rush	100.4	22nd		133.1	29th
Pass	199.6	22nd		244.1	25th
Total	300.0	24th		377.2	31st
Pts	20.0	20th		20.4	13th
	GB D			Pit O
Rush	124.0	23rd		90.5	24th
Pass	196.1	9th		188.0	24th
Total	320.1	11th		278.5	28th
Pts	19.9	10th		16.6	29th
T/O	GB			Pit
Takeaways	8	T-28th		16	3rd
Giveaways	10	T-9th		8	T-5th
Diff.	-2	T-18th		8	T-3rd

Based on sheer numbers and ranking in those departments, the Packers should have the advantage while on defense, assuming they’re able to keep the Steelers’ ground attack in check. Pittsburgh is 29th in scoring offense and almost dead last (31st of 32) in defensive yards allowed. Look no further than turnover differential when trying to figure out how Pittsburgh is 5-3 with (what statistically says is) a bad team. They average 2 takeaways/game while only giving it away once. Green Bay was able to get away with turning it over twice last week, but they may not be so fortunate should they do it this week. Look for quick passes and the ground game from Matt LaFleur Sunday as TJ Watt (#90) and Alex Highsmith (#56) are maybe the best edge rushing combo in the NFL. Each can wreck a game and the Packers have struggled with O-line play, so quick passes, screens, and the ground game should be paramount.

Other Players to Watch:

• #14 George Pickens – WR; big play potential with great hands
• #30 Jaylen Warren – HB; avg. 4.7 yards/carry
• #22 Najee Harris – HB; bruising back with great feet/balance

There are quite a few former Packers/Badges on the Pittsburgh roster, so some names will sound familiar:

• #57 Montravious Adams – DT (3rd round pick in 2017 of Green Bay) He’s OUT however.
• #95 Keeanu Benton – DT (Rookie from Wisconsin)
• #92 Isaiahh Loudermilk – DT (Wisconsin)
• #51 Nick Herbig – LB (Rookie from Wisconsin)
• #90 TJ Watt – he’s ok
• #34 Chandon Sullivan – spent 2019-2021 with Green Bay
• #49 Tariq Carpenter – S (7th rd draft pick by Green Bay last year)

Pittsburgh finds themselves in the heat of a divisional battle for the AFC North, while Green Bay is clinging to some playoff hope, but mainly looking for progress while Pittsburgh is what it is, just a tough team with a balance of kids and veterans.

Look for that veteran experience to show today, even though I believe Green Bay will have a brighter future in years to come and currently has more talent, the inexperience of the Packers will likely cost them today (and beyond in terms of wins).

Packers 17 (+3.5)
Steelers 20

Season: 3-5
Overall: 90-57

Vikings 24, Packers 10
Well, that looked a bit familiar, didn’t it? The game was fairly close throughout, but Green Bay only threatened to score while never really threatening to get back into the game. To remind everyone, the margin for error in the NFL is as close to 0 without being zero. 1 drop can kill a game, season, or possibly career. What about 6 drops? Jordan Love has not looked as consistently good as I thought he would/should, however, it’s beginning to look like the pass catchers may be at fault – or at least should take the majority of the blame. Whether it’s running into each other, or just not running routes altogether, this is beginning to showcase itself as an issue. Is it correctable? Maybe, reps will help the most as this is filed under the Growing Pains department.

The other glaring issue is offensive line play. I’ll pick on Josh Myers, because he went from avg. starter as a rookie to liability in every way this year. While I’m cherry-picking a play here and there, these essentially add up to sacks (drive-killers). These are worse than holding calls, because at least with penalties, you get to redo the down. This has really shown in A.J. Dillon’s production, or lack thereof. Dillon is a good back/player, but he’s not as dynamic as Jones, who’s able to make the OL look a bit better than they’ve been. Also, Jones hasn’t been really featured since week 1 in Chicago, which also was David Bakhtiari’s last game – he’s become an absolute valuable commodity at this point. Regardless of how this season finishes, look for Green Bay to use their 1st and/or 2nd pick on OL. If you know me, you’d know I’d be happy as a clam with using both picks in the trenches.

Minnesota absolutely annihilated Green Bay in Time of Possession…36:22 to 23:38. The penalties also killed the Packers (99 yards on 11 penalties), essentially giving Minnesota an entire field for free. Can’t have that. You do that, you’re not going to win. Rinse, wash, repeat. This is a young team and yes, that’s a reason, not an excuse. There will be more of these issues…ideally minimizing throughout the rest of the year, but the idea is they’ll be much better next year.

The Packers locked up arguably their best player, again (Jaire in May ’22), for years to come. People will compare him to the top pass rush earners in the league, as they should, however when Gary has been available, he’s been an absolute game-wrecker. This was a great move and for a decent price at that.

Speaking of Moves…

I never thought the Packer fan base would throw their arms up over a trade that, not only, made sense, but benefits the Packers in every way. Well, every way unless you wanted to try and scratch out some wins this season which had 0% chance at winning the Super Bowl. The goal is to have as many young and talented players all gelled together and developed at the commence of the 2025 season. Yes, the 2025 season. Fans are reacting as if the Patriots traded Tom Brady in 2016 (in the middle of him winning his 5th Super Bowl). This is a 28 year old cornerback, that will be 30 upon the “window opening,” and will likely have regressed and (likely and ideally) behind Eric Stokes on the depth chart. Loading up on draft picks is what Green Bay should be focused on, in addition to getting the kids live reps.

Love is progressing, however it’s tough to see. Former Packer great, Mike Wahle, does a good job breaking down a lot of things and here he shows what Love needs to do on a certain play that we’ve come accustomed to seeing Aaron Rodgers take all day.

Finally, to put a bow on the weekly Talking People Off the Ledge rant, here’s some great perspective on the Packers’ current situation which was due to kicking the can down the road to appease Aaron Rodgers while paying him a gargantuan contract TWICE!

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) @ (2-5) Green Bay Packers

The Rams may be without Matthew Stafford. The Packers have won the last 3 meetings between these two team, with one of those coming in the Divisional Round of the 2020 playoffs (Jan. 2021). Stafford lost his only start against the Packers since joining the Rams. Both teams have regressed since that game, significantly, and both are taking a different approach to their “rebuild.” Brett Rypien came in to relieve Stafford and put up stats like you’d expect a backup QB to do.

	LAR O	(rank)	vs.	GB D	(rank)
Rush	109.5	17th		132.0	26th
Pass	245.0	8th		207.1	11th
Total	354.5	9th		339.1	21st
Pts	21.9	14th		22.3	20th
	LAR D			GB O
Rush	115.1	20th		88.4	25th
Pass	218.5	13th		198.6	21st
Total	333.6	17th		287.0	25th
Pts	23.0	21st		20.0	21st
T/O	LAR			GB
Takeaways	6	T-29th		6	T-29th
Giveaways	8	T-6th		8	T-6th
Diff.	-2	T-18th		-2	T-18th

There are 3 items I’ll cover about the Rams.

1- Players to Watch:
#99 Aaron Donald— we all should know him by now. He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, and while he’s been hurt as of late, he’s a game wrecker in every way imaginable. The Packers have done a solid job in years passed keeping Donald in check. They’ll need to do the same if they want to win this game.
#10 Cooper Kupp– also a should be household name, Kupp was a certifiable stud prior to getting injured last year. He won the WR triple crown in 2021 (Receptions, Yards, and Touchdowns). He’s still very capable of producing at a high level, so see Jaire to follow him a bit.
#17 Puka Nacua– the rookie 5th round pick from BYU is having an Offensive Rookie of the Year start to his career. He’s notched 795 yards on 61 receptions with 2 touchdowns. He’s a true 2nd option for the Rams, and could leverage the Packers’ young secondary. He’ll present a great challenge and opportunity for the Packers.
#89 Tyler Higbee– their starting Tight End is a solid safety blanket, and should Stafford not go, will likely be targeted (or at least designed) to get the ball. He’s able to get open and fall forward, as well as get solid YAC (yards after the catch).

2- Key Items:
Turnovers– the Rams and Packers have identical turnover stats, so whoever wins this matchup likely wins the Time of Possession, and ultimately the game.
Time of Possession– this is one of the most frustrating stats for Packer fans. The Rams avg 30:00 time of possession which ranks them dead center, at 16th. The Packers are only averaging holding the ball 27:11, which puts them at 29th…the defense has been OK, but have been on the field the 4th most in the NFL. They’re not innocent giving up a ton of 3rd and Longs, but the offense needs to hold the ball longer/better.

3- Rams strength of schedule:
Of their three wins, they beat a good Seattle team, in week 1, in Seattle. They also beat a couple of inferior teams in Indianapolis and Arizona. The Packers are staring 2-6 in the face should they not put together a solid outing. However, if Stafford is unable to play, this should give the Packers a good chance at winning.

Rams 23 (+3.0)
Packers 20

*I can’t pick Green Bay to win until they show me they can win, again. I still believe they’re capable of beating everyone, and losing to everyone.

Season: 3-4
Overall: 90-56