The season is going exactly how we should’ve thought it would go. A bunch of kids playing and showing some signs of production mixed in with a ton of frustration. What we’re learning is the opposition doesn’t matter. The Packers just need live reps, it’s moot on whom they’re facing.

Why am I optimistic? The goal this season was to get the kids reps, and the worst case scenario from this is they get them and turn out to be bad players. It doesn’t delay future moves to improve the team as the prudent thing to do is to let these kids play more than 6 games together before determining whether they’re “good” or “I’ve seen enough.” Former Packers QB, Kurt Benkert, also has done a great job recapping NFL games and scouting the Packers. Here’s one of quite a few of his takes on what’s going on, and it’s fixable, but still needs to be fixed.

Continuing with the optimism – Peter Bukowski has another great tweet with the above picture. Showing how feeble the Packers are in the 1st half and how great they are in the 2nd half. The QB’s stats reflect this as well. Either the kids improve (because, let’s face it, they can’t get much more inconsistent) and really take off, or things stay the same and we’ll have a better idea of who’s good or in need of replacing. At this point, picking games is as hard as ever, and I’m not sure how anyone can pick Green Bay to beat anyone, even though they’re capable of beating everyone.

Enter Minnesota…

While no single stat is the end all, be all (aside from Wins and Losses), here’s a decent look at current strength of the teams in the NFL to this point. Oddly enough, the Packers and Vikings seem to be about as identical as possible. Minnesota, who doesn’t have a rushing touchdown to date, it’s almost a sure bet they get at least 1 this week vs. the NFL’s 30th-ranked rush defense. Keep in mind, they just gave up 145 rush yards to the Broncos, who entered the week ranked 19th…this doesn’t bode well. Teams that can’t run the ball seem to still have the advantage against teams that can’t stop the run.

	Min O	(rank)	vs.	GB D	(rank)
Rush	74.9	30th		143.7	30th
Pass	293.9	3rd		211.5	8th
Total	368.8	11th		355.2	16th
Pts	21.6	18th		22.0	21st
	Min D			GB O
Rush	105.6	13th		90.8	24th
Pass	245.4	17th		212.8	23rd
Total	351.0	15th		303.6	26th
Pts	21.7	20th		21.7	17th
T/O	Min			GB
Takeaways	9	T-15th		5	T-27th
Giveaways	14	T-30th		7	T-9th
Diff.	-5	28th		-2	T-18th

Minnesota ranks 30th in rush offense, and just hung 452 yards against the San Francisco 49ers (now 8th-ranked defense in terms of yardage). The packers come in ranked 16th in yards, and will look to slow down the Vikings who are beginning to get on a roll (I don’t think anyone saw that win over San Fran coming), and just to get positive vibes going back in the locker room at 1265.

I’ve also been a big proponent of score differential (in all sports) as showing a team’s true strength, and I believe it to be true to both of these organizations as well.

The Vikings are 15th and Packers 16th in score differential in the league, and both seem to play close games. Minnesota’s opponents have been stronger, which would indicate they’re the better team, which I would agree since they’re far more experienced, especially at the QB position. Also, Kirk Cousin in Noon games is his best time slot…each team would greatly benefit from winning this game, but for different reasons. Green Bay for getting that good vibe again, meanwhile Minnesota is looking for the playoffs then to magically “get hot” and maybe even win something of significance for once in their franchise’s history.

As for a pure matchup, when Minnesota is on offense, their passing attack is 3rd while Green Bay’s pass defense is 8th…while Minnesota struggles to run the ball, Green Bay obviously more than struggles to stop the rush. Similarly while Green Bay has the ball, all the matchups stats are alike – what Green Bay must do to win the game is win the turnover battle (and time of possession), man this is like beating a dead horse. I don’t think that’s the case as we’ve seen the Packers have had 4 games come down to the last possession, coming out on top once in those occasions.

Vikings 31 (-1.5)
Packers 25

Season: 2-4
Overall: 89-56

If you haven’t noticed, yet. The titles of these posts are from The Offspring…figured that was fitting.

Green Bay hasn’t won in 4 weeks. It’s also seemed that long. For the billionth time, the Packers are going through a Youth Movement, which is the best kind of “rebuild” a team can take. It’s the best method to set an organization up for long-term success. Meaning, this team is going to surprise you in every manner possible. They’re going to look bad in departments (i.e. offense vs. bad D, etc.) all season long. Green Bay may look awful on offense vs. the NFL’s worst defense (Denver) this week, but could also beat Kansas City and shut down Patty Mahomes, so who knows…which is the fun part.

How bad is Denver? They’re bad, almost Chicago bad (they were losing to Chicago 28-7 with 15:14 left in the game, before coming back and beating the Bears).

	GB O	(rank)	vs.	Den D	(rank)
Rush	81.6	27th		172.3	32nd
Pass	200.0	21st		268.0	30th
Total	281.6	28th		440.3	32nd
Pts	22.6	13th		33.3	32nd
	GB D			Den O
Rush	143.4	28th		106.0	19th
Pass	194.4	9th		200.3	20th
Total	337.8	17th		306.3	21st
Pts	22.6	22nd		21.5	17th
T/O	GB			Den
Takeaways	5	T-22nd		6	T-20th
Giveaways	6	T-7th		11	T-27th
Diff.	(1)	T-17th		(5)	26th

These are well-below average teams matching up on Sunday. Here’s the warning I’ll issue, which fans won’t take in, because they’re fans — the Broncos have the worst defense in the NFL and the Packers have an opportunity to “get things righted,” however, the issues with youth is youth doesn’t care about the opponent, they just are what they are. Could Green Bay struggle to run the ball against the worst run defense in the league? Yes. Could they struggle to get on track in the passing game against the 3rd-worst pass defense team in the league? Also yes.

Keep in mind, we’re entering game 6 of 34 (17.6%) in the youth movement, or rebuild if you’d like (but they are different). We are far from knowing what this roster is capable of and even what Jordan Love truly is, however he’s shown signs of being able to do the hardest things (coming back from down 17-0 in the 4th quarter against a good Defense should be enough evidence for everyone to give Love enough leash for 2 full seasons).

The Packers’ pass D might be a bit of a mirage too as teams have had the lead over Green Bay a lot and run the ball, which is also their weakness. Get teams into passing situations, that’s where Green Bay can get off the field and generate turnovers.

I’d like to see the Packers get their season turnover margin back into the black, and improve the time of possession rank (sitting at 29th averaging only 27:01/game). Denver is worse, ranking 31st in that department.

Here are jsonline’s predictions…

Packers 27 (-1.0)
Broncos 21

Season: 2-3
Overall: 89-55

I’m not sure how many times I can reiterate things, however it’s far easier to say something than it is to accomplish something…

Blocking Maxx Crosby is inherently harder than the idea of just blocking him. Also, the Packers have the better team/roster, however the same two things I’ve harped on forever, typically dictate the outcome of the game: turnover differential; time of possession.

Green Bay held Las Vegas to 96 yards rushing on 29 attempts (3.3 yards/rush), which is Mission Accomplished. Green Bay also accrued over 100 yards on the ground themselves (110 yards on 25 rush attempts). The killer? Turnovers. Which ultimately led to a better Time of Possession for Las Vegas as well. The Packers lost the turnover battle 3-to-1, with the last being the most crucial, obviously. The silver lining (see what I did there?) for Green Bay is they won the Points off Turnovers battle, which is another key stat.

	GB	LV
ToP	27:26	32:34
Turnovers	3	1
Pts off TOs	7	3

Yes, these are growing pains. Growth, in this context, isn’t linear…it’ll look much like an ascending stock – tons of ups and downs. Does the opponent matter? Actually, for the youth movement, far less than you’d think. Actually, the opponent may be meaningless in the sense that, I wouldn’t be shocked if Green Bay loses to Denver (who’s terrible), and in a couple of months beats Kansas City. This team has that much talent, and the only thing they possess more than talent is youth. It’s quite frustrating.

There are plenty of great follows on X (twitter) to see what’s been going on with the Packers and their surprise liability, the offensive line. @Peter_Bukowski is a solid follow, and here’s just one tweet that exemplifies the main issue holding up the Packers from “looking better.”

The man pictured above, C Josh Myers (#71) has gone from “decent rookie” to an absolute problem. He constantly lets up pressure, which is the worst as he’s literally the Center of the Line! He must either improve, dramatically (both by a lot and in terms of time) or be replaced. Not only have Super Star D-linemen looked amazing in back to back weeks vs this unit, those superstar players should be the focal point, in which previous Packer O-lines have handled fairly well. However, Hutch and Crosby have taken over each of the past 2 games. Hell, even Malcolm Koonce looked like prime George Koonce (no relation, from my research at least). All in all, just a bad performance, however, the optimist in me tells me there will be more of these games this season, and the kids will be able to learn from them just by experiencing them…as long as they’re playing.

To quote Dave Portnoy, “It’s time for an emergency press conference.” With the awful outing in Las Vegas, the fans – not even the media – have jumped all over Jordan Love. This comes less than a month after many of the same fans have said “The Packers did it again!” Now, almost by definition, fans are supposed to overreact, and a vast majority do. Also, a vast majority are wrong, almost always. I’m not immune to it either, however, the 2023 campaign is about one thing and one thing only; repetitions for the kids.

The Packers have the youngest team. As stated before, they have the youngest team in the NFL in the last 6 seasons. Goal #1 is to see what you have in Jordan Love. Yes he’s sat for 3 years behind Aaron, however there’s nothing that can replicate live bullets. He’s shown promise, quite a bit, and his production has waned as the offensive line play has as well as Aaron Jones’ availability has too. I’ve been advocating for Love to get at least a full season (ideally 2 full seasons) before moving on. That doesn’t mean the Packers can’t take a QB in next April’s draft, but it should allow Green Bay to fully understand what Jordan Love is.

Lastly, this was always going to be the case, growing pains. Many jump to the “he’s regressing, and it’s regressing against worst opposition.” They also make the case that these “pains” aren’t growth, they’re the same issues. “Is it coaching?” Again, without being in the meetings and on the sidelines in the play call, tough to say. However, the one way to guarantee getting an answer is allowing time to pass, roughly 30-34 games. Regardless of surrounding cast, we should have an idea whether Love will be good enough.

Let’s Play A Game

Here’s a chart of QB’s through their first 5 starts after taking the helm for their respective teams. There’s no right answer, however, I figured this is good for conversational stuff. Message who you’d like to have after their first 5 games and I’ll give you the answer as to who it is…

	QB1	QB2	Love	QB4	QB5
W/L	1-4	3-2	2-3	2-3	2-3
Comp	93	99	90	109	103
Att	169	159	162	169	163
Comp %	55.03%	62.26%	55.56%	64.50%	63.19%
Yards	1,129	1,023	1,083	1,135	1,274
TD	4	7	8	6	9
INT	12	4	6	2	4
Rating	54.1	85.0	77.3	90.7	95.5

A familiar site from Green Bay’s humiliating 34-20 loss at the paws of the Detroit Lions…a 4th consecutive loss to the Lions. Detroit racked up 401 total yards on 73 plays, for an astonishing 5.5 yards/play. 211 of those 401 yards (53%) came on the ground. Something that needs to be corrected now, and moving forward if the Green Bay Packers want to ever think about contending for a title in the next 3 years.

Detroit dominated in the trenches, on both sides of the ball. As mentioned above, rushing for over 200 yards is almost a guaranteed victory statistic, their defense sacked Jordan Love 5 times for 43 yards. That’s essentially 2 full drives worth and an entire field position flip’s worth of issues. There was not one facet of the game where the Packers were the better team – not one. That being said, the optimist in me will say that Jordan Love never looked flustered, didn’t give up, and didn’t get on his teammates, and kept fighting. While that should be the bare minimum any athlete gives (let alone a professional athlete), it needs to be stated because more often than not the give-up tolerance in these players today is far lower than in year’s passed.

Dan Campbell has Detroit on the right track. They opened the season in Arrowhead at the defending champs, and won. They’re an OT home loss to Seattle away from being undefeated and near the ranks with the 49ers and Eagles for the cream of the crop in the NFC…maybe the entire NFL. The Lions are about 1.5 years ahead of the Packers, as both franchises seem to be on the right track and are doing things the right way — building for the future through youth.

Sin City- I believe the Packers arrived yesterday, and hopefully there wasn’t a Sunday Funday experience, as this is another great opportunity for this young Packers team to improve. These teams are about as evenly matched (on paper) as can be. The Raiders are 1-3, opening the season with a close win in Denver to the awful Broncos, then have since lost three in a row. Former Packers Pro Bowl wideout, Davante Adams, has recently voices his frustrations with the Raiders. However, if he’s searching for whom to blame, a mirror would suffice. If he’s a full go tonight, it’ll be great to watch him go man-on-man (hopefully Joe Barry doesn’t play zone) with the league’s best corner, Jaire Alexander – who’s looking to make his return tonight.

Green Bay will have no better opportunity to improve it’s rush defense rank than it will tonight. Monday Night Football will feature the two worst rush offenses in the NFL. While both teams feature great backfields – even though Aaron Jones isn’t playing, it’s something amiss as to why the Packers avg. fewer than 75 yards on the ground per game and Las Vegas can’t even average 70! Both defenses should be gearing up to stop the pass as the ground games should keep themselves in check, in theory.

	GB Off.	(rank)	vs.	LV Def.		(rank)
Rush	74.5	31st		134.3	25th
Pass	206.3	18th		202.6	12th
Total	280.8	29th		337.0	16th
Pts	25.0	10th		25.3	25th
	GB Def.			LV Off.
Rush	155.3	31st		65.3	32nd
Pass	197.3	10th		216.5	14th
Total	352.5	21st		281.8	28th
Pts	24.0	23rd		15.5	30th
T/O	GB			LV
Takeaways	4	T-22nd		1	32nd
Giveaways	3	T-5th		10	T-28th
Diff.	1	T-14th		(9)	T-31st

Where the Packers can scratch out a victory will be the distinct advantage in turnover differential. Green Bay does a great job of holding onto the ball…only having Jordan Love’s 3 interceptions against them all year, whereas Las Vegas is abysmal in both departments of taking the ball away and holding onto it.

Another indicator as to how evenly matched these teams are is time of possession. The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL averaging 27:39 time of possession per game, while Green Bay is ranks 29th averaging 26:54. If Aaron Jones is 100% (unlike last week), look for Matt LaFleur to run early and often to dictate the trench-play as well as wear down that front of Las Vegas by the 4th quarter. Even if the run game isn’t working, it does wear the pass rush and sets up play action, if you’re committed to it.

Lastly, the Raiders have 3 outstanding players. Everyone has heard of Davante Adams. Most are familiar with Josh Jacobs, just from fantasy alone. The Packers need to keep Jacobs in check and if he’s a full GO, holding him to <100 yards would be a huge step in the right direction. The 3rd player, may be their best, Defensive End Maxx Crosby (#98). This guy is a beast, and can disrupt a game much like Aiden Hutchinson of the Lions. Crosby can generate pressure much alike Rashan Gary, and after the “performance” of the Packers’ OL last week………………………………

I’m going to go with the homer pick, because why not?

Packers 31 (+2)
Raiders 26

Season: 2-2
Overall: 89-54