Considering this is the first Quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers to start a week 1 game for the Green Bay Packers since September 6th, 1992 – we’re in for something. The news story is Jordan Love, and should be, however the expectations are the unknown (also as they should be?).
Considering this is the first Quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers to start a week 1 game for the Green Bay Packers since September 6th, 1992 – we’re in for something. The news story is Jordan Love, and should be, however the expectations are the unknown (also as they should be?). Many writers and “experts” have gone back to Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter (2008 season) since the parallels are hard to ignore, and used that as a barometer for both stat line and team record. That’s not a bad thought – others have used Matt LaFleur’s inaugural season as Green Bay’s 15th head coach. Rodgers’ stat line there wasn’t great, but one thing stuck out for me was the TD:INT ratio.
- 353/569 (62%)
- 4002 yards
- 26 TD
- 4 INT
- 95.4 rating (12th)
That’s a solid stat line, coupled with an opportunistic defense and a lot of close wins, the Packers went 13-3 that season and ended up with the 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. If Jordan Love mimics that stat line, it wouldn’t be out of the question that Green Bay posts another 13-win season, which would be huge moving forward. However, I’d expect essentially the same stats, but with a few more interceptions as the communication and relationship Rodgers and Davante had been one of the best in the NFL, and Love needs time to generate anything close to that – which is why Rodgers’ interceptions were so low.
Never in history, has a fan base of such an awful team talked so much trash. Bear nation has run its mouth about Justin Fields winning MVP and overtaking the Packers in the head-to-head matchup. To quote Kevin Garnett, “Anything is possible!,” Justin Fields would be on his own island of players to flip a switch with such a sample size and just become good. Outside of one-year wonders, Fields is essentially what he is, a super athletic QB that can make a throw or two, then again, what pro QB can’t make 1-2 throws, total?
There’s a great website, nflrankings.theringer.com, that deep dives on grading and analytics of Quarterbacks and ranks them in a video game style that’s easy to understand. What’s funny is they have Jordan Love ranked above Fields and the knock-on Love is due to him being “a mystery,” and the praise of Fields is “He puts the fear of God in FL defenses…right up until the ball leaves his hands.” I can’t think of a harsher knock on a QB than that.
Don’t get me wrong, can Fields take over a game and win? Sure. Plenty of athletic QBs have decimated Green Bay since the Randall Cunningham days (let’s not forget Kaepernick in 2012 running rampant), but is this something to be worried about long-term and think Fields will take over the NFL? Put it this way, if Fields is still QB of the Bears in 3 years, that’s going to be REALLY good for one of these franchises, likely the Packers.
How can Green Bay keep the streak going? Implied above, the Packers can limit the mistakes by shortening the game and running the ball behind their solid offensive line, thus opening passing lanes for Love and the young, yet dangerous, receiving targets. One of those targets, Watson, will be OUT and it’ll be even more imperative for Love to execute the gameplan and get the ground game going early and often.
The other main item to keep an eye on is Rashan Gary. The Packers have solid pass rush, and with their stud, they may boast one of the best in the NFL. However, Gary is coming off a torn ACL last year in Detroit, and typically guys don’t return to 100% until the 2nd season after returning. There are a few instances of guys returning the following year, but it’s rare and they’re usually superstars (ala Adrian Peterson and Willis McGahee), which Rashan Gary may be, but look for him to be on a pitch count, and hopefully super effective. Green Bay does have Gary listed as the starting OLB on the team depth chart, which is a great sign as the Packers are usually one of the more conservative teams when it comes to injuries.
For Week 1 in the NFL, there’s not much to typically be made of it, for what it’s worth, the last 10 eventual Super Bowl winners have gone 8-2 in week 1. I will say, in terms of trash talk, the outcome of this game will have more impact on Bear fans should they lose vs. Packer fans if Green Bay falls. I’m guessing it’ll be a close game, but the Packers have the better OL, DL, and QB. Turnovers will likely dictate the outcome in this one, and when Green Bay loses, it’s because of the turnover battle.
Packers 27 (+1.5)
Bears 23
Season: 0-0
Overall: 87-52
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